- author, Paul Kirby
- role, BBC News, Brussels
-
Europeans in 20 countries will head to the polls on the biggest and final voting day of the European Parliament elections.
The EU vote is particularly significant in a pivotal election year and on a continent seeing increasing political polarization and nationalism.
The run-up to the vote was marked by violence, but an incident in which Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen suffered minor whiplash and was forced to stop campaigning was not seen as politically motivated.
Europe’s main centre-right group is expected to come out on top across the EU when the first forecasts are released later on Sunday, but the three far-right parties are all aiming to win the most seats at home.
France’s National Rally, Italy’s Italian Brothers party and Austria’s Freedom Party are leading the polls, as is Belgium’s separatist, anti-immigration party, Vlaams Verandah.
The majority of EU member states will vote on Sunday, although some EU countries have already begun voting on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The European Parliament is the direct link between Europeans and the EU institutions.
16 year olds voting
In Germany and Belgium, 16- and 17-year-olds will be able to vote for the first time, increasing youth voting numbers in Europe. Young people in Austria and Malta have been able to vote from the age of 16 for some time now, and in Greece, the age is 17.
In Germany alone, an estimated 1.4 million 16- and 17-year-olds are among the roughly 5 million people voting for the first time, and they could influence the outcome of the election.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party claims to have been particularly successful in garnering support from young men through campaigns on social media platforms such as TikTok.
Belgian Young people in Belgium vote in federal, local and European elections. Voting is compulsory in Belgium, but there was little enthusiasm among young people ahead of the vote in Aalst, Flanders.
Vlaams Veran has won with the party before, but so far no other party is willing to work with it. A young woman named Simona said young people are especially enthusiastic about the party’s anti-immigration stance: “They like its policies towards people coming from abroad.”
Many of the town’s young voters the BBC spoke to said they had not yet decided whether to vote at a European or national level.
Dutch anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders visited Aalst on the eve of the vote in a bid to boost Vlaams-Veran’s chances of victory.
Dutch Voters will head to the polls on Thursday, with exit polls already suggesting his party is narrowly behind the Left-Green coalition. Results won’t be known until Sunday evening.
The priorities of European voters have shifted dramatically since they last voted in 2019, with Russia’s war in Ukraine and the cost of living front and center in people’s minds, while immigration, health and the economy are also key. Five years ago, British voters took part in the last election before leaving the EU.
“We want a Europe that can defend itself,” said Ursula von der Leyen, who has led the European Commission for the past five years and is campaigning for another term in the election, which will also play a major role in determining who runs the EU’s executive branch.
However, voters were as swayed by domestic issues as by European politics, as evidenced by exit polls in the Netherlands, which suggested that domestic and European politics were equally important to 48% of voters.
The biggest race on Sunday GermanyOf the 720 seats in parliament, 96 are at stake.
In Germany, Chancellor Ursula von der Leyen’s conservative Christian Democrats/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) is widely expected to win, with the biggest issue being the race for second place, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats facing challenges from both his coalition partner the Greens and the opposition AfD.
Violence before the vote
Violent attacks have occurred in several EU countries ahead of the vote, with politicians and activists alike being targeted in Germany.
In the eastern city of Dresden, Social Democrat candidate Matthias Ecke was seriously injured in an attack by teenagers who attacked a Green party activist, while in Berlin a former minister was hit in the head.
Interior Minister Nancy Faser warned of new waves of anti-democratic violence and said German law and the constitution “must and will continue to strengthen the protection of democratic forces in our country.”
Slovak President Robert Fico was shot last month while meeting with supporters but narrowly escaped death.
Denmark’s Social Democrat Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was forced to stop campaigning on Friday after a man pushed her to the ground, though the incident was not politically motivated.
Races to watch in France and Hungary
in FranceMarine Le Pen’s National Rally is hoping to increase its share of the country’s 81 seats, with opinion polls showing it with a big lead over President Emmanuel Macron’s “Renewal” party and Raphael Glucksmann’s resurgent Socialist party.
A big attraction for the National Rally is its 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella, who has led the European election campaign.
The government has taken Bardella’s comments very seriously, with Prime Minister Gabriel Attal even joining him in a one-on-one debate to attack the party’s close ties with the Kremlin.
At the head of Macron’s party list in this election is Valérie Heyer, a lesser known politician than Jordan Bardella.
on the other hand, HungaryPrime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party is facing one of its biggest challenges yet from Prime Minister Peter Magyar and his new centre-right Tisza party.
Despite major national elections, real power in the European Parliament is held by political groups from the various member states, with the centre-right European People’s Party, made up of conservative parties from across the EU, widely expected to remain the largest political force in the 720-seat European Parliament.
There are few centre-left parties in Europe, but it is still expected to become the second largest party.
These two right-wing groups, which are home to several far-right parties, are expected to gain increased support.
Giorgia Meloni’s Italian Brothers party is part of the European Conservatives and Reformists group along with Spain’s Vox and the Sweden Democrats, while France’s National Rally is part of the Identity and Democracy group along with Italy’s League and Austria’s Freedom Party.
That leaves the question of whether they are willing to cooperate or find common ground with the centre-right.
The big losers in this election could be centrists, including France Renew and the Green Party. As a Green Party activist in Brussels said on the eve of the vote, “Everything has moved to the right.”