EV makers Rivian, Lucid face challenges amid Q3 results

DETROIT — Challenges are mounting for all-electric vehicle manufacturers Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group as the companies try to sell investors on a brighter, more profitable future to come.

But things could get worse before they get better as both automakers are set to report third-quarter results this week, starting with Rivian after the bell Tuesday, followed by Lucid on Wednesday.

Both “pure EV” companies are expected to report notable growths in revenue and narrowed adjusted earnings losses amid record third-quarter U.S. EV sales. But investors are also expecting the manufacturers to give updates on future growth opportunities as well as impacts from more challenging market conditions.

“Both of these are really challenged,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan told CNBC during an interview, saying he’s cautious about much near-term upside for investors. “To me, it’s all about the underlying profitability.”

Both automakers have already cut vehicle production guidance due to more challenging market conditions, while Rivian also has negatively changed its adjusted earnings and gross profit expectations for 2025.

EV manufacturers face industrywide issues such as increasing costs due to tariffs and slower forecasted sales of EVs, as well as company-specific problems that include new product challenges, and regulatory changes that are negatively impacting sales and profits, including the end of consumer federal incentives.

The Trump administration this fall got rid of federal incentives of up to $7,500 for the purchase of an EV. In addition to that, it also ended the practice of fining automakers for failing to meet fuel efficiency rules. That hurts EV manufacturers, which had been counting on selling credits to legacy automakers that could offset some penalties.

Rivian this summer cut its expected earnings from credit sales from $300 million to $160 million. In connection to the change, Rivian also lowered its gross profit guidance for the year to roughly breakeven from a modest profit. It also has conducted layoffs this year to cut costs.

“While we believe deeply in the long-term value drivers of our business, the policy environment continues to be complex and rapidly evolving,” Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe said during the company’s last quarterly results call in August. “Changes to EV tax credits, regulatory credits, trade regulation and tariffs are expected to have an impact on the results and the cash flow of our business.”

Rivian has maintained that it has enough cash to get it through the launch of its new “R2” product during the first half of next year, but the ongoing changes don’t assist the company by any means.

Tariffs are hitting the automaker to the tune of “a couple thousand dollars per unit” this year, Rivian has said. Lucid also said tariff costs are hurting its profit margins this year, including $54 million during the second quarter.

“We expect the loss of the credit to be a headwind for the market in the coming quarters. Our prior elasticity of demand analysis implied that the loss of IRA [Inflation Reduction Act] credits could equate to a double-digit percent headwind to industry volumes, all else equal,” Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney said in an Oct. 3 investor note on Rivian and Tesla.

Tesla, which has also sold automotive regulatory credits, reported revenue from those credits in the third quarter fell 44% to $417 million from $739 million.

The third quarter is expected to be the peak of EV sales for the foreseeable future, as customers rushed to purchase new models ahead of the federal credits ending in September.

As a result, the companies are expected to spend more time touting future products and technology opportunities to investors during their third-quarter calls this week rather than their near-term core businesses of producing and selling EVs.

“It remains to be seen how long the EV hangover will last in the US, though we suspect 3Q EV penetration will likely be the highest mark for quite some time,” Barclays analyst Dan Levy said in an Oct. 13 investor note.

Rivian last month reported vehicle deliveries of 13,201 vehicles during the third quarter, a 32% increase from a year earlier.  Lucid reported deliveries of 4,078 units, up 47% from 2,781 units from the third quarter of 2024.

Even with an uptick in sales, both companies are expected to report notable losses, albeit narrowed from a year ago and smaller than the second quarter.

Rivian is expected to report an adjusted earnings per share loss of 72 cents on revenue of $1.5 billion, based on average analysts’ estimates compiled by LSEG. That would compare to an adjusted EPS loss of 99 cents on revenue of $874 million a year earlier.  

When reporting its second-quarter results, Rivian said it expected its adjusted core loss to be between $2 billion and $2.25 billion this year, compared with $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion previously forecast. Analysts also have expressed concerns about Rivian’s previous goal to be profitable on an earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization basis by 2027.

Lucid is expected to report a $2.27 adjusted EPS loss for the third quarter, down from $2.80 a year earlier (based on recalculated results following a reverse stock split), on a roughly 90% increase in revenue to $379.1 million, according to LSEG.

Narayan and other analysts have largely focused on improvements in the gross profits of the companies as proof of progress. Such results are a key indicator of a business’s profitability before operating expenses, interest, and taxes deductions.

“[Investors] will want to see what that gross profit number is in Q3, but they also have a high bar to pass over with where consensus already is,” Narayan said.

Rivian is expected to report a gross loss of $39 million during the third quarter, according to average estimates compiled by FactSet. Lucid, meanwhile, is expected to report a $255 million gross loss, according to the estimates.

Shares of Rivian are off less than 5% this year, while Lucid’s stock is off roughly 45%, including a 1-for-10 reverse stock split in September.

Both Rivian and Lucid have tried to sell investors on the success of their future vehicles as well as technologies to save the companies from continued losses.

Rivian’s future heavily relies on its new “R2” vehicles that are expected to begin production for customers the first half of next year. The roughly $45,000 midsize vehicle, per Rivian, is expected to cut build material costs in half, reduce production complexity and significantly grow demand and sales.

“I’m more bullish on this vehicle than any product we’ve developed. I believe that the product market fit is incredible. The packaging, the technology and overall value proposition set R2 up for meaningful share,” Scaringe said in August.

However, the R2 will launch in a challenging market ripe with plenty of vehicle competition — many of which are expected to have longer EV ranges at a similar, if not lower, price.

Barclay’s Levy earlier this year did an analysis of the potential total addressable market of the R2, questioning the company’s bullishness on the product amid “risks” of weaker expected U.S. EV demand, additional costs and a more competitive market.

Narayan and other analysts also have questioned the company’s sales targets for the vehicle: “It’s a very competitive market, and you have this EV slowdown in full effect. What are the volumes they’re going to get on R2 going up against all this competition? … [General Motors] can barely get to hundreds of thousands,” Narayan said in the interview.

Rivian also has touted its potential for revenue with new technologies, such as the $5.8 billion deal it struck with Volkswagen for its software and electrical architecture.

Rivian has said the next generation of technology also is expected to help it become a leader in advanced driver-assistance systems, or ADAS, despite the automaker trailing many other systems.

The story is similar at Lucid. The company has placed significant importance on the launch of its Gravity SUV, which Lucid has described as challenging, as well as a future midsize vehicle platform to broaden its market reach.

“We are not simply building electrical vehicles. We are pushing the boundaries of what EVs can be,” Lucid interim CEO Marc Winterhoff said during the company’s second-quarter call in August. “From the record-breaking performance and efficiency of the Lucid Air to the game-changing Lucid Gravity, to our upcoming midsize platform, our technology continues to redefine what’s possible.”

More recently, Lucid also has touted future ADAS technologies and the potential of personal autonomous vehicle capabilities as part of its future, despite a history of underwhelming capabilities in its current luxury models.

Lucid signed a $300 million deal with Uber in July that included the ride-hailing platform acquiring and deploying more than 20,000 Lucid Gravity SUVs that will be equipped with autonomous vehicle technology from startup Nuro over the next six years.

Other topics investors will be watching include any updates to Rivian’s timeline for its R2 production or Lucid’s production of the Gravity SUV as well as cash flows and profitability outlooks for both companies.

“We are not where we want to be with Lucid Gravity production relative to our target at this point in the year,” Winterhoff said in August. “We believe we will significantly increase production [in] the second half of the year.”