How accurate were the exit polls in 2014 and 2009?
In 2014, the average of eight exit polls predicted the BJP-led NDA to win 283 seats and the Congress Party-backed UPA to win 105 seats. However, thanks to the “Modi wave”, the NDA ended up winning 336 seats and the UPA only 60. Of these, the BJP won 282 seats and the Congress Party won 44. In 2009, when the UPA returned to power, the average of four exit polls underestimated the number of seats to be won by the winners, giving the UPA 195 seats and the NDA 185 seats. The UPA ended up winning 262 seats and the NDA 158 seats. Of these, the Congress Party won 206 seats and the BJP 116 seats.
Congress skips exit poll debate, BJP reacts
The Indian National Congress’ announcement to boycott the exit poll debate drew a strong reaction from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Friday, with Home Minister Amit Shah accusing the Congress of being in “denial mode”.
The controversy began when AICC media and public relations director Pawan Khera wrote on X, “Statement on reasons for not taking part in the #ExitPolls. The voters have voted and the verdict is set. The results will be out on June 4. Till then, we see no reason to indulge in speculations and fierce battles for TRPs.” read more
We have enough people to form the next government: Amit Shah
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader and Union Home Minister Amit Shah has argued that “we are in a comfortable position” and that “we already have the numbers to form the next government,” acknowledging that a strong opposition is good for democracy, but said “it is for the Janata Party (the people) to decide” and that it cannot be decided by the wishes of a few. Shah’s comments were: Indian Express interview The event took place at his New Delhi residence shortly after the conclusion of voting for the sixth phase of the elections, the seventh and final one of which will be held on June 1.
The difference BJP made in this Lok Sabha election
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third Lok Sabha election campaign saw some new themes, but his BJP’s hectic campaigning style remained largely unchanged throughout the grueling 40-day campaign. As always, the prime minister led from the front. When the Indian National Congress Party claimed the new BJP government would target the Constitution, and the party’s manifesto was targeted, Instagram Reels posted a video of Modi directly addressing selected people at the rally. The small rally was attended by BJP upper house members as well as those who did not get tickets for the Lok Sabha election. read more
Sharad Pawar hinted at a possible realignment in opposition politics after the 2024 elections, saying regional parties would move closer to or possibly merge with the Indian National Congress. Pawar, a former Union minister and Maharashtra chief minister who is one of the current most senior opposition leaders, told The Indian Express: “In the coming years, several regional parties will align more closely with the Indian National Congress. Or, they may explore the option of merging with the Indian National Congress if they feel that is in the best interest of the party.”
When asked if that applied to his own party, the NCP, NCP leader Sharadchandra Pawar said, “I don’t see any difference between us and the Indian National Congress…. Ideologically, we belong to the Gandhi-Nehru school of thought.” Read the full interview.
Maharashtra is a key piece of the puzzle this election. Since the last Lok Sabha elections in 2019, the traditional “sectarianism vs secularism” battlefront has been realigned beyond recognition after the Shiv Sena and NCP split and both the government and the opposition were realigned. On the opposition side, an unlikely alliance has been formed between Uddhav Thackeray’s Indian National Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP). The Indian Express caught up with the most high-profile contender, Uddhav Thackeray, in Matosri, Mumbai’s leafy enclave of Kalanagar. Read his full interview.
