Far-right to shine first in Europe’s summer elections
Last week, tens of millions of Europeans went to the polls in the European Parliament elections, with a total of 720 seats up for grabs across the 27 EU member states. The European Parliament is the only directly elected institution in the EU, but it is also the least powerful when compared to the European Commission and the European Council. Nevertheless, European Parliament elections are important as they often determine the political direction of the EU.
Last week’s elections were similar: while the European People’s Party, the mainstream centre-right political grouping in the European Parliament, continues to hold the most seats, far-right parties have seen a significant increase in their number of seats, mostly taking seats from parties on the left.
The results of this election have sent political shock waves through some EU member states, while the UK, which has now left the EU, is also going through a period of political turmoil.
Perhaps the biggest shock from the European elections came in France, where Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party won the most seats in parliament. This upset French President Emmanuel Macron, who has led a center-left minority government for the past two years. Many were shocked when he subsequently called early general elections to be held on June 30 and July 7.
The thinking behind Macron’s decision is unclear. He wants to force the French people to choose between far-right and mainstream parties, and believes instant elections are the best way to achieve that. While voting for a far-right party in European elections is one thing, voters tend to neutralize their preferences in national elections.
Perhaps the biggest shock from the European elections was the one that hit France.
Luke Coffey
Macron hopes that the National Rally’s recent victory is the result of a protest vote by the French people and not a fundamental realignment of French politics, and he likely believes that a premature defeat for the party on the heels of its European election victories could prevent Le Pen from becoming a viable candidate in the 2027 presidential election.
But the strategy could backfire. Mr. Macron’s approval rating is at an all-time low and the Rally now enjoys astonishing strength across France. Moreover, the leader of France’s main center-right party, the Republicans, said he would join forces with the Rally if it meant removing Mr. Macron from power. Party officials subsequently fired him.
If Macron’s plan backfires, it could have major implications for France’s role in Europe and NATO, especially on critical issues like Ukraine.
The second hot topic this summer is Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats came in third in the country’s European elections, behind the mainstream center-right Christian Democratic Union and the far-right Alternative for Germany, marking the Social Democrats’ worst national election result in decades.
Unlike Macron, Scholz has said that early elections are not on the table. But ultimately, the final decision on the issue may not be Scholz’s. As in France, European Parliament elections are seen as a vote of no confidence in governments across Europe, and Germany is no exception. The coalition government is already in trouble even before the vote, and political pressure could grow from all sides in German politics to force Scholz to call early elections.
Politics across Europe, both within and outside the EU, will remain contentious this summer.
Luke Coffey
In the coming weeks, the ruling coalition will work together to draw up a common budget. This will undoubtedly put considerable political pressure on the coalition and could increase the likelihood of early elections. Germany is Europe’s largest economy and a driving force in EU politics. Any elections in Germany would have important implications for the entire continent.
There is another important election in Europe this summer, not in the EU but in the UK. Although British Chancellor Rishi Sunak has called for early elections well before the European Parliament elections take place, many of the factors that influence continental politics also affect the UK.
After 14 years in power, the Conservative Party is likely heading for retirement when the vote comes next month. At this point, the biggest question is how big a majority the Labour Party will have. One key factor to watch is the rise of the populist party, the Reform UK Party, in British politics and how it will play a role in the election results. The UK electoral system makes it very difficult for Reform Party candidates to win seats in the House of Commons. However, Conservative supporters disillusioned with the party’s recent direction may vote for the party as a form of protest. This will likely give the Labour Party an even larger majority than usual.
Politics across Europe, both within and outside the EU, will likely remain contentious this summer. With Europe’s three largest economies holding or potentially holding elections, the coming months could determine the direction of the continent for years to come. Things are further complicated by the uncertainty of the US presidential election this November.
Europe faces continuing economic challenges and energy security issues. At the same time, the largest war on the continent since the 1940s is brewing in Ukraine. Europe will be holding elections this summer, and the stakes will be high — not just for Europe, but for the rest of the world.
• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the authors in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Arab News.
