Betting markets are predicting a comfortable victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
While markets expect Prime Minister Narendra Modi to secure a third term, they have in no way backed the BJP’s ‘400 per cent’ claim.
A top bookmaker in Mumbai told India Today TV that the BJP’s popularity was high before the first phase of voting, but after the third phase, the party’s popularity has been on a downward trend.
Currently, markets are predicting that the BJP is likely to win 295-305 seats, while the Congress is expected to secure 55-65 seats.
Initial projections were that the BJP would win 315-325 seats and the Congress 45-55 seats.
After three stages, the BJP’s vote share projection changed to 270-280 votes and the Congress’ vote share projection changed to 70-80 votes. After six stages, the BJP’s vote share projection was adjusted again to 295-305 votes and the Congress’ vote share projection to 55-65 votes.
“The market has never supported the 400-seat mantra and even 350 seems impossible given the odds,” said an anonymous bookmaker.
Bets worth Rs 8-9 billion have been placed on the Lok Sabha elections ever since the elections were announced.
State forecast:
- Maharashtra: The NDA alliance is expected to win 28 seats.
- Uttar Pradesh: The NDA alliance is expected to win 64-66 seats.
- Gujarat: BJP is likely to win by a landslide
Betting markets are active in several key constituencies known as “fence seats.” Here are the predictions for these constituencies, including the candidates’ projected margin of victory:
Active betting seats and predictions:
- Amethi: BJP likely to win, says Smriti Irani
- Raebareli: Congress likely to win, says Rahul Gandhi
- Wayanad: Congress likely to win, says Rahul Gandhi
- Nagpur: BJP likely to win, Nitin Gadkari
- Chandrapur: Congress likely to win, Pratibha Dhanolkar
- Gandhinagar: BJP likely to win, Amit Shah (over 500,000 votes)
- Main Pl: SP is likely to win, says Dimple Yadav
- Lucknow: BJP is likely to win, Rajnath Singh (over 250,000 votes)
- Mathura: BJP is likely to win, Hema Malini (over 2 lakh votes)
- Yavatmal: UBT Sena likely to win, Sanjay Deshmukh
- Amravati: Congress likely to win, says Balwant Wankhede
- Baramati: Sharad Pawar’s party likely to win, Supriya Sule
- Mumbai North: BJP is likely to win, Piyush Goyal (more than 3 lakh votes)
- Kolhapur: Congress is likely to win, Shahu Chhatrapati Maharaj
- Chul: Congress is likely to win
- Junjunu: Congress is likely to win
- Kota: BJP is likely to win
- Barmer: Congress is likely to win
- Hyderabad: AIMIM likely to win, Asaduddin Owaisi
- Navsari: BJP likely to win, CR Patil (over 500,000 votes)
- Dharwad: BJP is likely to win
- Meerut: BJP is likely to win
- Amethi: BJP likely to win, says Smriti Irani
- Kannauj: SP is likely to win, Akhilesh Yadav
- Nashik: Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena likely to win, Hemant Godse
(Disclaimer: The predictions and information in this article are based on insights from the betting market and have not been verified by India Today Group. Betting and gambling are illegal in many places and we do not endorse such activities. Data and opinions are for informational purposes only and should not be considered as official predictions or recommendations.
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