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Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party came in front in the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, moving closer than ever to taking power.
Final results released by the Ministry of the Interior on Monday showed that after an unusually high turnout, the RN coalition won 33.15% of the vote, with the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition coming in second with 27.99% and President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition slipping to a dismal third place with 20.76%.
The RN is expected to win the most seats in the National Assembly but may fall short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, suggesting France could be heading for a hanging parliament and further political uncertainty.
Projections suggest the RN will win between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat lower house after the second round of voting next Sunday, a staggering increase from its 88 seats in the outgoing parliament. The NFP is projected to win between 125 and 165 seats, followed by the Ensemble with 70 to 100 seats.
A total of 76 candidates were elected to the French parliament in the first round of voting, of which 39 were from the RN, 32 from the NFP and two from Macron’s coalition, according to final results released by the French Ministry of the Interior on Monday.
The election, called by Macron after his party’s crushing defeat to the RN in European elections earlier this month, could see him serve out the remaining three years of his presidential term in an uneasy alliance with the prime minister, who is from the opposition.
The RN electoral party in the northern town of Hénin-Beaumont celebrated the results, but Marine Le Pen was quick to stress that next Sunday’s vote was key.
“Democracy has spoken and the French people have put the Rally National and its alliance in first place, effectively eliminating the Macron faction,” she told the jubilant crowd, adding: “Nothing has been won yet. The second round of voting will be decisive.”
Speaking at RN headquarters in Paris, the party’s 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella, echoed Le Pen’s message.
“The vote that will take place next Sunday will be one of the most decisive in the history of the Fifth Republic,” Bardella said.
In a bullish speech before the first round of voting, Mr. Bardella said he refused to run a minority government in which the RN needed the votes of its allies to pass laws. If the RN falls short of an absolute majority and Mr. Bardella keeps his promise, Mr. Macron may have to find a far-left prime minister or form a technocratic government somewhere else entirely.
Anti-far-right demonstrations erupted in Paris and Lyon following the report of the results on Sunday night, with around 5,500 people gathering at the capital’s Place de la Republique, according to CNN affiliate BFMTV.
Reuters later published footage of protesters setting off fireworks as they marched through Paris, while BFMTV reported that 200 police had been deployed to Lyon to handle the demonstrations.
Yves Herman/Reuters
Marine Le Pen cast her vote at a polling station in Hénin-Beaumont on June 30, 2024.
An unprecedented number of seats are up for grabs in a three-way runoff election, kicking off a week of political maneuvering as centre-right and left-wing parties decide whether to withdraw in individual seats to prevent the nationalist, anti-immigration RN, long a pariah in French politics, from winning a majority.
When the RN (formerly known as the National Front) performed well in the first round of voting in the past, left-wing and centre parties have banded together under a principle known as the “corridor” to stop it from taking power.
After Marine’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the longtime leader of the National Front, unexpectedly defeated Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin in the 2002 presidential election, the Socialist party backed center-right candidate Jacques Chirac, who won a landslide victory in the second round.
The left-wing NFP coalition, formed earlier this month to stop the RN from winning a majority, has pledged to withdraw all candidates who came third in the first round.
“Our instructions are clear: we will not give the Rally National one more vote or one more seat,” Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the NFP’s largest party, Unbowed France, told supporters on Sunday.
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Demonstrators take part in a rally against the far right after the results of the first round of parliamentary elections were announced at the Place de la Republique in Paris on June 30, 2024.
“A long week awaits us and everyone will have to make a decision in their conscience that will determine in the long run the future of our country and the destiny of each and every one of us,” Mélenchon added.
Marine Tondelier, leader of the Greens, the more moderate wing of the NFP, has personally begged Macron to withdraw from certain seats to prevent the RN from winning a majority.
“We are counting on you: if you come in third in a three-way race, please withdraw, and if you don’t make it to the second round, please urge your supporters to vote for a candidate who upholds Republican values,” she said.
Macron’s ally, the Ensemble, has also called on supporters to stop the far-right from forming a government but has warned against voting for the firebrand Mélenchon.
Macron’s successor, outgoing prime minister Gabriel Attal, urged voters to stop the RN from winning a majority, but said Mélenchon’s “Serene France” party was “blocking a credible alternative to the far-right government.”
“No one should vote not only for the Rally National candidate, but also for the candidate of the Indomitable France party, with whom we disagree on fundamental principles,” said Edouard Philippe, a former prime minister and another ally of Macron.
It’s unclear whether strategic voting will stop the RN from winning a majority. In Sunday’s vote, the party gained support in places where it had not been seen until recently. In the 20th constituency in the industrial heartland of Nord, Communist leader Fabien Roussel lost in the first round to an RN candidate with no political experience. The seat had been held by the Communists since 1962.
Abdul Saboor/Reuters
Jean-Luc Mélenchon collects his ballot before casting his vote at a polling station in Paris on June 30, 2024.
Macron’s decision to call the first general election since 1997 surprised France and his closest allies. Sunday’s vote came three years earlier than necessary and just three weeks after his Renaissance party suffered a major defeat at the hands of Renaissance in European elections.
Macron has pledged to serve out the remainder of his final presidential term until 2027, but now faces the possibility of having to appoint a prime minister from the opposition in an unusual arrangement known as “coexistence”.
The French government has little trouble passing legislation if the president and parliamentary majority belong to the same party; if they don’t, things can get bogged down. The president decides the country’s foreign, European and defense policy, while parliamentary majorities are responsible for passing domestic laws such as pensions and tax systems.
But these powers can overlap, plunging France into a constitutional crisis. For example, Bardella rejected Macron’s proposal to send troops to help Ukraine against Russian aggression, saying he would not allow Kiev to use French military equipment to attack targets in Russia. In such a conflict, where the boundaries between domestic and foreign policy are blurred, it is unclear whose will will prevail.
Jeffrey van der Hasselt/AFP/Getty Images
Demonstrators stand on flares at the Monument to the Republic during a rally following the announcement of the results of the first round of the French parliamentary elections, at Place de la Republique in Paris on June 30, 2024.
A far-right government risks triggering a fiscal and constitutional crisis. At a time when France’s budget may be facing brutal cuts from the EU, the RN has promised big spending packages, from reversing Macron’s pension reforms to cutting taxes on fuel, gas and electricity.
France, which has one of the euro zone’s largest budget deficits, may need to embark on austerity measures to avoid running afoul of the European Commission’s new fiscal rules. But if implemented, the French cabinet’s spending plans would send France’s budget deficit soaring. That prospect has alarmed bond markets and led to warnings of a “Liz Truss-style financial crisis,” a reference to Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister.
In a brief statement on Sunday evening, Macron said the high turnout demonstrated French voters’ “desire to clarify the political situation” and urged his supporters to rally together in the second round of voting.
“The time has come to have a broad, clearly Democratic and Republican rally for round two before the national rally,” he said.
Correction: This article has been updated to correct the National United Party’s vote share.
