- author, Paul Kirby
- role, BBC News, Paris
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France is holding what could be history-making parliamentary elections that will bring the far-right closer to power than ever before in modern history.
Just three weeks after Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s Rally National (RN) won the European elections and are now leading the polls by a large margin, President Emmanuel Macron surprised his country by immediately reacting and calling for a referendum.
Such a crucial election is expected to see a high turnout of 49 million eligible voters, with polls in major cities closing at 8pm (1800 GMT) when the first exit polls will be published.
This is a two-round election, with most of the National Assembly’s 577 seats remaining to be decided until next Sunday’s second runoff election.
The election campaign lasted only 20 days, but this also worked in the RN’s favour, as they quickly improved on existing pledges on immigration, crime, insecurity and tax cuts to tackle the cost of living crisis.
Jordan Bardella wants to become the RN’s first prime minister and is confident his party can win dozens of constituencies in the first round of voting.
But he has said he will only take up the position of prime minister if his party secures an absolute majority of 289 seats in Parliament, otherwise there will be a hung parliament and deadlock.
Once the initial results are in on Sunday night, Rally National’s rivals will have to decide who to support in a nationwide runoff election to avoid winning an absolute majority.
Image source, Thomas Samson/Pool/AFP
If the polls are correct, many of the runoff votes will pit the National Coalition against the New Popular Front, a hastily put-together left-wing coalition that believes it has a chance of winning the election.
But Brice Teintoulier of the Ipsos polling institute said turnout was expected to be high, meaning three parties could advance to the second round in up to 250 constituencies.
In previous elections, all parties have banded together to exclude the far-right, so the question arises as to whether one of the candidates in these triangular elections will withdraw in order to consolidate the anti-RN vote.
RN leaders have tried hard for years to shed their extremist image. They want to cut VAT on energy and exempt under-30s from income tax, alongside policies that give French citizens a “national priority” in jobs and housing.
A teacher named Agnes from Franconville, north of Paris, complains about the breakdown in discipline in French schools and welcomes Jordan Bardella’s plan for a “big bang of authority” in education. “I vote either right or far right. I like Bardella’s charisma,” she says.
She also has no problem with the plan to phase out RN. Law of the SunChildren born to foreign parents are automatically entitled to French citizenship if they spend five years in France (from age 11 to age 18, the age at which they become eligible to apply for French citizenship).
President Macron’s Ensemble coalition is widely expected to lose its seats and Gabriel Attal’s days as prime minister appear to be numbered, even though opinion polls show he remains France’s most popular politician.
“Macron’s era is over,” President François Hollande declared before the vote.
Former French President Hollande, Macron’s boss and mentor, is running again in parliamentary elections, this time as a candidate for the New Popular Front.
But even Macron’s allies are angry about his surprise election gamble.
There are no elections scheduled in France for the next three years, and there were much better ways to spend the summer than a shortened and intense campaign.
The whole of France is preparing for the Paris Olympics, which will begin on July 26th.
Subway stations such as Concorde have been closed and restrictions have been imposed near the Olympic venues.
Police and the military are already overwhelmed, and the interior minister has warned that violence could break out after the second round.
Macron is due to meet with the prime minister and government officials on Monday to decide his next steps.
So far their mantra has been “Niini.” – It will not support either the RN or the left-leaning New Popular Front in the second round due to the presence of the party Stand Up to France (LFI), which is accused by opponents of being far-left and some of its members of alleged anti-Semitism.
Macron said only his Ensemble coalition had the power to stop both the “far right and the far left”, which he said categorised people by their religion or origins, while the left judged them by the communities they belonged to.
On a hot evening last week in Meaux, eastern Paris, Mathilde Pannot, one of the LFI’s most senior figures, told supporters they were the “sole focus of resistance” to the rise of the far right and accused Macron’s coalition of opening the door to power for the RN.
“We are not extreme. What is extreme is Macron’s extreme liberalism which has led to the rise of the far right,” she told the BBC.
The New Popular Front also includes moderate parties such as the Socialist Party and the Green Party, and its leader, Marine Tondelier, has called for a united front to prevent Bardella from becoming prime minister.
Some of France’s best-known young stars, including NBA sensation Victor Ouenbanyama, soccer captain Kylian Mbappe and YouTube influencer Squeegee, have urged voters to steer clear of extreme views.
But the divide between the two parties is deep, and there is very little time to take concerted action to stop the RN.
“I’m worried about my country,” Aurelie said outside the market in Le Plessis-Bouchard, north of Paris. She is unimpressed with the RN’s nationalist policies. “Patriotism is not nationalism. It’s not the same thing.”
