PARIS — Voters are heading to the polls in France for the second round of a crucial election that will determine whether a rising far-right will win an absolute majority in parliament or whether a polarized nation will vote for a conflicted and deeply divided government.
“I think the French people just want politicians to know they are angry,” Jean Mareira, who voted on a quiet Sunday morning in a working-class district of Paris, said of the atmosphere that led to a divisive election.
The election, called by President Emmanuel Macron less than four weeks ago and sending the nation into shock, has plunged France into a volatile and fast-paced election campaign, intensifying tensions at home and forcing centrists into negotiations with the left to thwart the rise of the far-right. claimed a historic victory.
Voting in mainland France begins at 8 a.m. local time (2 a.m. Eastern time) and the final polling station closes at 8 p.m. (2 p.m. Eastern time), at which point pollsters will publish their estimated results, with the official tally due to be released early on Monday morning.
The National Rally, known in France as the RN, won a landslide victory in the first round of voting last weekend with a third of the vote, while a coalition of left-wing parties came second with 28 percent and Macron’s centrist coalition came third with just 20 percent after its gamble to call off a general election backfired spectacularly.
501 seats in the French National Assembly are up for grabs in a runoff election today. 76 candidates won seats in the first round of voting. The RN and its allies won 38 of those seats, the most of any party. A majority of 289 seats is not beyond the reach of the far-right, but local opinion polls suggest it is likely to fall short.
A majority would mean the far-right National Rally would nominate the prime minister and set domestic policy, but more likely, centre-right and left-wing parties could stifle it, leaving France hanging.
A tactical alliance would prevent the far right from implementing a hardline anti-immigration, pro-working class domestic policy, but it would likely plunge Congress into political paralysis and harmful inaction.
“Either way, it’s a mess,” said Nick Hewlett, a professor emeritus of French politics at the University of Warwick in the UK. “Macron tried to govern from the centre, without belonging to progressive or reactionary politics, and he failed miserably, which is part of what got us here.”
Macron has broken with the usual alliance with the centre-right Republicans to avoid the humiliating scenario of bringing a far-right government to France for the first time since the Nazi occupation in World War II. Make a deal with the left in the runoff election.
Local media estimates that more than 200 candidates have now confirmed they will not stand in the second round to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote.
“The left quickly came out and said we’re doing this, and the centres quickly came out as well,” said Rainbow Murray, an expert on French politics at Queen Mary University of London.
“They’re both operating from the same perspective, which is not about helping each other, but about stopping the far right,” Murray said.
Malairat said he showed up to stop the RN from taking power but was concerned a divided government could lead to dysfunction. “Politically speaking, I’m worried about whether they can function as a democratic system.”
Such an alliance is Tensions rose during the election campaign, with more than 50 candidates and activists being assaulted, including government spokeswoman Prisca Thevenot, whose parents are immigrants from the African island of Mauritius, who was assaulted as she put up election posters in a town near Paris on Wednesday night.
Protests have spread across the country, with demonstrators urging voters to vote against the RN, and a march took place in the French capital on Wednesday. France’s interior minister said on Thursday that 30,000 police officers would be deployed on election day, 5,000 of them in the Paris region.
But even amid these tensions, the alliance appears to be working.
Opinion polls had projected the RN would win between 250 and 300 seats after the first round of voting, with 289 needed for a majority. But the first poll published after this week’s strategic retreat, cited by Reuters, predicted the RN and its allies would win just 190 to 220 seats.
The poll showed the left-wing New Popular Front coalition and Macron’s centrist faction could win enough seats to form a coalition government, but Macron has rejected the option of a coalition that included the far-left France Indomitable party, and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has also rejected the idea of a multiparty government.
If that happens, two possible scenarios for Sunday would pose unprecedented challenges for France.
A suspended parliament could lead to political paralysis and stagnation, with parties working together in ad-hoc alliances on a case-by-case basis to pass legislation, depriving France of a functioning government and deepening the disillusionment already felt by much of the electorate.
This would not only affect France’s domestic policies, but could also curtail France’s international presence in the European Union and neutralize some of its most important leaders on the world stage.
Meanwhile, France has an anti-immigration, Eurosceptic government that has promised to “rebuild France” by giving French citizens a “national preference” over immigrants when it comes to jobs and housing, while also abolishing automatic French citizenship for children of foreign parents and banning dual nationals from “sensitive strategic posts”.
The RN’s opposition to the European Union and its historical closeness to Russia during the Ukrainian war This raises questions not only about France’s future, but also about the future of Europe. RN President Jordan Bardella has refuted claims that his party is friendly to Russia, calling it a “multifaceted threat” to Europe, and said he supports the continued provision of French weapons to Ukraine but opposes sending long-range missiles capable of hitting targets inside Russia.
Whatever the outcome, the RN is likely to claim victory as the most cohesive party, Hewlett said, emboldening the far-right “who will feel entitled to power sooner or later”.
The Ipsos poll of more than 10,000 voters found that the party enjoyed strong support from voters of all ages, especially among young French people, and was also overwhelmingly supported by a majority of those who described themselves as “disadvantaged.”
Its popularity is a scathing rebuke to the politics of Mr Macron, who once energised young people and promised change.
And even if the RN were to win a more modest 190 seats, it would still be a remarkable increase for a party that won just eight seats in 2017.
“Whatever happens, it’s a win for them,” Hewlett said.
Carlo Ungerer reported from Paris and Freddie Clayton from London.
