CNN
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A left-wing coalition is expected to win the most seats in France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday after strategic voting thwarted Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, but France may be left in limbo as no party secured an absolute majority.
In a surprising result, the New Popular Front (NFP), a coalition of five parties ranging from the far-left Indefatigable France to the moderate Socialists and Ecologists, was predicted to be the largest party in the National Assembly, winning between 171 and 187 seats, but fell short of the 289 seats needed to form an absolute majority.
President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition slumped to a dismal third place in last Sunday’s first round of voting but has since bounced back strongly and is expected to win 152-163 seats. Despite leading in the first round, the far-right National Rally (RN) was projected to win 134-152 seats.
The RN’s strong showing in the first round of voting had raised fears that France was on the verge of electing its first far-right government since the Vichy regime during World War II. But Sunday’s projections were a major upset and showed an overwhelming desire among French voters to prevent a far-right government from seizing power, even at the cost of political deadlock, with no party expected to win a majority.
After the first round of voting, an unprecedented number of more than 300 seats were up for grabs in a runoff election between the Ensemble, the NFP and the RN. By Tuesday, more than 200 centrist and left-wing candidates had withdrawn from the second round to avoid splitting the vote.
The announcement of the forecast erupted in cheers in the streets of Paris. Speaking to enthusiastic supporters in Stalingrad Square, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the firebrand leader of Indomitable France, said the result came as “a great relief for the vast majority of our country.”
“The people have clearly rejected the worst-case scenario,” said Mélenchon. “A great wave of national mobilization has begun!”
Macron’s successor, Gabriel Attal, announced he was stepping down as prime minister on Monday morning. He criticized Macron’s decision to hold an early vote and said he “did not choose” to dissolve the French parliament.
Elsewhere in Paris, the upbeat mood at an RN election event in the Bois de Vincennes nosedived an hour before polls closed. After the forecast was released, the party’s 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella, said France had been plunged into “uncertainty and instability.”
Mr Bardella, who was appointed leader by Marine Le Pen as part of an effort to root out roots of racism and anti-Semitism within the party, has brought it closer to power than ever before. Clearly disappointed with the results, he slammed the NFP as an “unholy alliance”.
“From tomorrow, our lawmakers will take to work to fight against immigration and far-left policies. We will not enter into any kind of coalition or compromise and we will stand on the side of the French people,” he said.
Sebastian Salom Gomis/AFP/Getty Images
NFP supporters celebrated the election results at an election night event in Rennes on July 7, 2024.
In a brief statement, the Elysee Palace said Macron was waiting for the full results from all 577 constituencies “before taking any necessary decisions.”
“In his role as guarantor of our institutions, the president will ensure that the sovereign choice of the French people is respected,” the statement said.
After parliamentary elections, the French president appoints a prime minister from the party that gets the most votes. Typically, that means a candidate from the president’s own party. But if Sunday’s prediction proves correct, Macron could face having to appoint someone from a left-wing coalition in an unusual arrangement known as “coexistence.”
Speaking to supporters in Stalingrad Square, Mr Melenchon said Mr Macron had an “obligation to hand over power to the New Popular Front”.
Jeffrey van der Hasselt/AFP/Getty Images
At the event, held at Place de la Republique in Paris, a giant French flag was displayed with the words “France was born from immigrants” inscribed on it.
But it is not clear which party in the coalition Macron will appoint as prime minister. An unbowed France is expected to win up to 75 seats, beating the Socialist Party’s 65 and making it the largest single party in the NFP.
But Mr Macron and his allies have repeatedly stressed they reject any coalition with Mr Mélenchon. After the first round of voting last Sunday, Mr Macron’s successor, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, said an unyielding France was preventing the formation of a “credible alternative” to the far right.
The NFP was formed less than a month after Macron called for early voting following his crushing defeat to the RN in last month’s European elections.
This vast and potentially divisive coalition chose its name in an attempt to revive the original Popular Front that prevented the far-right from seizing power in 1936. If Sunday’s predictions are correct, the NFP will have achieved this objective.
The party campaigned on a platform of raising the minimum wage to 1,600 euros (more than $1,700) a month, capping the prices of basic goods, electricity, fuel and gas and repealing Macron’s highly unpopular pension reforms that raised France’s retirement age, already one of the lowest in the Western world, from 62 to 64.
Sunday’s vote marks a victory for France’s “cordillera” principle, which holds that left-wing and center parties must unite to stop far-right parties from taking power.
But the RN’s success should not be underestimated. In the 2017 elections that Macron won in a landslide, the party won just eight seats. In 2022, that number will jump to 89. The party is projected to win 152 seats in Sunday’s vote.
While the risk of a far-right government has so far been averted, the election has plunged France into political uncertainty, with Mr Macron calling it three years sooner than necessary and just minutes after his own party was heavily defeated by the far right in EU elections.
While the outcome of the EU elections does not necessarily affect domestic politics, Macron said he could not ignore the message sent by voters and wanted to clarify the situation.
But Sunday’s result is likely to further upend France’s political situation, as new elections cannot be called for at least another year and Mr Macron, with three years left in his presidency, faces the prospect of presiding over a disorganised parliament amid mounting problems at home and abroad.
Former French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, an ally of Mr Macron, said Mr Macron’s gamble further complicated the situation.
“The truth is that no political force in parliament has the majority to govern on its own. The dissolution of parliament was meant to clarify the situation but has instead created greater ambiguity,” he said on Sunday evening.
“Therefore, the central political forces have a responsibility to remain relevant. They must not compromise and must push for the creation of an agreement that will stabilize the political situation.”
