French voters, who cast their ballots in large numbers on Sunday, appeared to surprise their country’s lawmakers by backing a left-wing and centre-right party, which unexpectedly came in first and second place, rather than ushering in the country’s first far-right government since World War II.
France now faces political paralysis and uncertainty that could last for months. Neither the left nor any other coalition was able to secure the 289 seats needed for a majority in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament.
A left-wing coalition won at least 181 seats, while Macron’s Together coalition won more than 160 seats.
The far-right had a large lead in the first round, with one in three voters supporting them, and a majority of seats was seen as within reach, with some polls suggesting the party could win 200 more seats than Macron’s coalition.
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But on Sunday, the National Alliance and its allies came in third, winning 143 seats. The results were met with stunned silence at the party’s election night event, where cheery supporters had gathered in anticipation of a historic win, and some activists were reduced to tears, observers said.
Meanwhile, Macron’s camp seemed so convinced of defeat that it had not even organized an official electoral party.
“The Republican Front has performed much better than expected,” said Mujtaba Rahman, European managing director at political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group.
The National Rally’s chances of victory have shrunk significantly over the past week as left-wing and centrist candidates voluntarily withdrew from the runoff election with more than 200 candidates to prevent a split in the vote that could lead to a victory for the far-right.
Jordan Bardella, leader of the National Coalition party, who would have been prime minister under a far-right government, accused Sunday of “dishonorable alliances and a dangerous electoral system” that not only prevented his party from winning a majority but also disrupted the democratic process.
“By deliberately paralyzing our institutions, President Emmanuel Macron has not only led the country into uncertainty and instability, but has also prevented French people from getting answers to their daily problems for a long time to come,” Bardella said.
Now, the big question is, who can grab that opportunity?
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left party Indefatigable France, positioned himself as spokesman for the coalition and said he was “ready to take power.” He called on Macron to ask the coalition to form a government.
“The defeat of the President of the Republic and his coalition has been clearly confirmed. The president must bow his head and acknowledge this defeat without trying to avoid it,” Mélenchon said.
It is customary for Macron, who could remain president until 2027, to offer the prime ministerial position to the leader of the largest coalition or party in Parliament. But political researcher Antoine Jardin said the left-wing coalition “seems too weak to form a relatively stable government” and would struggle to find enough allies.
“The extremists have no majority,” Macron’s outgoing prime minister, Gabriel Attal, said in a speech on Sunday night.
Attal said he would resign on Monday “in accordance with republican traditions and in accordance with my principles,” but suggested stability was needed in the weeks before the opening of the Paris Olympics. “Our country is in an unprecedented political situation, preparing to welcome the world in a few weeks,” he said. “I will therefore, naturally, serve as long as the position demands.”
Macron may ask Attal to stay on in his post until a political compromise can be found for a new government.
If the left can overcome the internal differences it has glossed over in pursuit of a common goal: stopping the far right, it may have a realistic chance of forming a government.
In forming their electoral coalition, left-wing parties had agreed to field one candidate per constituency, but Mr. Mélenchon’s Unbowed France fielded the most candidates and won the most seats of any left-wing party on Sunday, to the dismay of the moderate left, including the Socialist Party, which has long shaped French politics.
Mélenchon’s critics say he is too divisive to be recommended as a candidate for prime minister. Some say his proposed policies are unrealistic, too extreme to appeal to moderates and would lead to conflict with the European Union. Others accuse him of stoking anti-Semitism within his party.
Even before the vote, the alliance’s cohesion was fraying: on Thursday, François Lefand, one of the left’s most charismatic figures, broke with Mr Mélenchon.
Supporters hope that Mr. Macron, who was declared politically dead by his opponents a week ago, may have another chance to redeem himself. His team may want to form a broad-based, centrist government with remnants of former conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy’s party and the moderate-left lawmakers who are in a left-wing coalition with Mr. Mélenchon.
On French television on Sunday night, talk show hosts and analysts were at odds over whether Macron’s gamble to call early elections had paid off, but the very existence of such a debate may signal a revival of sorts.
“The French election results prove that Macron’s decision to call early elections was a strategic choice, not a gamble,” said Alberto Alemanno, a professor of European Union law at HEC Business School in Paris. “Despite the uncertainty surrounding the formation of the next government, Macron and his party remain the favorites.”
Some say Macron’s unexpected comeback in the second round had less to do with the president: “Macron’s decline in prominence in the second round undoubtedly favoured the strategies and approaches of candidates who appealed to their local individuality and roots,” analyst Jardin said.
Political researcher Vincent Martiny said Macron’s dissolution of parliament would remain “the most rash decision of the Fifth Republic”.
Martini described Macron as “a gambler and a pure strategist who is betting the fate of the country with dice. He has killed the political majority. It is only thanks to the left-wing Republican Front that the Together candidates are holding on.”
Regis Corre, an unemployed 57-year-old who lives in Pontoise, 20 miles north of Paris, voted left on Sunday. He cited immigration, insecurity and a lack of civility as France’s defining political issues.
“The situation is getting worse and worse,” he said, adding that “we cannot continue with Mr Macron.”
But France’s history of Nazi occupation meant the far-right was not an option for him. “People seem to forget what Germany did,” he said.
Le Pen has sought to reform France’s far-right and overcome its historical ties to racism and anti-Semitism, ousting her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, one of the party’s founders, who was repeatedly convicted for hate speech, including calling Nazi gas chambers a “piece of history.”
Marine Le Pen has positioned herself as a strong defender of Israel since the October 7 Hamas attacks, and Bardella has vowed to be a “shield for our Jewish brothers”.
But dozens of National Alliance candidates have been accused of making racist, Islamophobic and anti-Semitic comments, reinforcing the impression that the movement has not changed as much as its leaders say it has.
Casimir Basia, 60, a French professor of Congolese origin, said a National Rally victory would be “a denial of French history”.
“France is not Norway or Sweden,” said one left-leaning voter. “France is shaped by immigration and the movement of people. A third of French people have roots abroad.”
But Sunday’s election showed France is increasingly polarised, and the Interior Ministry said it had deployed 30,000 police officers in anticipation of a far-right victory that could spark violent protests.
Interior Minister Gerard Darmanin said 51 candidates and campaigners had been assaulted and about 30 arrested since Macron called early elections last month. In an interview with BFMTV, Darmanin said some of the attacks were “very serious” and required hospitalization, noting that the attacks affected candidates “on all sides.”
Timsit reported from London and Rauhala from Washington.
