PARIS (AP) — French voters are being called to cast their ballots Sunday in a first round of voting that marks an exceptional moment in political history. Cancel parliamentary elections That could lead to the country’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation during World War II – or it could mean no majority at all.
Following the second round of voting on July 7 and a rushed election campaign, the outcome remains highly uncertain with the three main political forces in contention. The far-right National Rally, president Emmanuel Macron The Centre Alliance, and New Popular Front Coalition This includes the centre-left, the Greens and the far-left.
Let’s take a closer look:
How does it work?
France has a complex electoral system that is not proportional to national support for political parties. MEPs are elected by district. To be elected on a Sunday, a candidate for parliament must receive at least 50% of the vote on that day.
If they can’t, the top two candidates, along with any other candidate who receives the support of at least 12.5 percent of registered voters, will advance to a second round of voting.
In some cases, three or four candidates advance to the second round, but some drop out to give other candidates a better chance – a tactic often used in the past to thwart far-right candidates.
More than 50 countries will hold elections in 2024
Leaders of the major parties are expected to announce their strategies between the two rounds of voting, making the outcome of the second round highly uncertain and dependent on political maneuvering and voter reactions.
The far-right National Rally party, which is leading in all pre-election polls, is hoping to win an absolute majority, or at least 289 of the 577 seats.
The lower house of France’s bicameral parliament, the National Assembly, is the more powerful of the two chambers, having the final say in the legislative process compared to the conservative-dominated Senate.
Macron will serve as president until 2027. He will not resign until the end of his term.
Supporters of the left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire hang up campaign posters for the upcoming parliamentary elections, Wednesday, June 26, 2024, in Strasbourg, eastern France. French President Emmanuel Macron called for early general elections following his centrist coalition’s defeat in European Union elections earlier this month. Voters will elect members of the National Assembly in two rounds, on June 30 and July 7. (AP/Jean-Francois Badias)
What is cohabitation?
If a political force other than his centrist coalition wins a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister who belongs to that new majority.
In this situation, known in France as “coexistence,” the government will implement policies that differ from those planned by the president.
France’s modern republic has experienced coexistence three times, the last time from 1997 to 2002, under the rule of conservative President Jacques Chirac and Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.
The Prime Minister is responsible to Parliament, leads the government and introduces legislation.
“In the case of coexistence, the policies implemented are essentially those of the prime minister,” said political historian Jean Garrigue.
During this time, the president has less power domestically, but retains some authority over foreign policy, European affairs, and defense, as he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s military, and holds the codes for nuclear weapons.
“The president has the power to sign or not sign government ordinances and decrees, which means he can block or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister’s projects,” Garrigues added.
“But the prime minister has the power to put these ordinances and orders to a vote in Parliament and can override the president’s reluctance,” he pointed out.
People gather at Place de la Republique during a rally in Paris, Thursday, June 27, 2024. Anti-racism groups joined French trade unions and left-wing coalitions to protest the rise of far-right nationalist forces after French President Emmanuel Macron called early general elections following the defeat of his centrist coalition in European Union elections earlier this month. (AP Photo/Christophe Haenat)
Who will lead defense and foreign policy?
Under the previous policy of coexistence, defence and foreign policy were considered the president’s informal “exclusive domain”, and the president was usually able to find a compromise with the prime minister to ensure France spoke with one voice abroad.
However, today the views of the far-right and far-left coalition in these areas are fundamentally different from Macron’s approach. Sources of tension when cohabitation is a possibility.
According to the constitution, “the president is the head of the military, but it is the prime minister who has the military at his disposal,” Garrigues said.
“The president’s powers in the foreign affairs sphere are also significantly limited,” Garrigues added.
Jordan Bardella, president of the National Coalition, said that if he were to become prime minister: Opposed to sending French troops to Ukraine “We are very grateful to France for providing us with the long-range missiles and other weapons capable of hitting targets in Russia,” Mr. Bardella said.
If the left-wing coalition wins the election, it could undermine France’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.
The New Popular Front’s platform plans to “immediately recognize the state of Palestine” and “cut off the French government’s criminal support for the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Macron previously said, Recognition of the State of Palestine should take place He called it a “salvificant moment” and suggested that such a move cannot be tolerated at this point in the war between Israel and Hamas.
People gather at Place de la Republique during a rally in Paris, Thursday, June 27, 2024. Anti-racism groups joined French trade unions and left-wing coalitions to protest the rise of far-right nationalist forces after French President Emmanuel Macron called early general elections following the defeat of his centrist coalition in European Union elections earlier this month. (AP Photo/Christophe Haenat)
What happens if there is no majority?
The president can nominate the prime minister from the bloc with the most seats in the National Assembly, as has been the case with Macron’s own centrist coalition since 2022.
But the National Rally has already said it rejects such an option, saying an alliance between other parties could quickly lead to the far-right government being toppled by a vote of no confidence.
The president could try to build a broad coalition from left to right, but that’s an unlikely option given political differences.
Another complicated option, experts say, would be to appoint a non-party “expert government,” but it would still need majority approval in parliament. Such a government would mostly deal with day-to-day operations rather than implementing major reforms.
If political consultations drag on during the summer vacation and the holiday from July 26 to August 11, Paris OlympicsGarrigues said the possibility of a “transition period” had not been ruled out, during which Macron’s centrist government would “remain in charge of current affairs” and further decisions would be taken.
“Whatever the National Assembly, the Fifth Republic’s constitution seems flexible enough to withstand these complexities,” Melody Moc-Gruet, a public law expert at Sciences Po in Paris, said in a written statement. “Faced with this experimental situation, the system is more robust than it appears.”
“But there is another unknown in this equation: the ability of the public to accept the situation,” Mock-Gruet wrote.
