Image source, Daniel Dorko/Hans Lucas/AFP
- author, Paul Kirby
- role, BBC News in Paris
-
President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to hold two general elections, on June 30 and July 7, is seen by rivals and allies as a risky gamble that could hand power to the far right.
His aim was to regain control of French politics, but opinion polls do not predict that he will do so.
Why is France holding elections?
Macron did not have to call national elections for the next three years.
But an hour after his Renew coalition suffered a crushing defeat in the June 9 European Parliament elections to the far-right Rally National party of Jordan Bardera and Marine Le Pen, the president appeared on television to say he could not act as if nothing had happened.
With his party coming in third, he said it was time for “French people and politicians who have not given in to the fanaticism of extremism” to form a new coalition government, which he later called “the most responsible solution.”
What was Macron thinking?
Macron had apparently been considering calling the elections for months, but it came as a surprise even to his closest colleagues.
France is on the brink of a major event: the Paris Olympics, which will be held from July 26 to August 11. And now the election campaign is unfolding at lightning speed.
Macron was clearly keen to break the deadlock after failing to secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly in June 2022. Passing legislation has become a real headache: the pension reform had to be forced through without a vote, and tougher immigration controls required the support of the National Rally.
“For France to act calmly and harmoniously, we need a clear majority,” Mr Macron argues, but he has left French politics, and his own party, in chaos.
Image source, Ludovic Marin/AFP
The centrist Ensemble coalition, made up of Renaissance, Horizon and Modem parties, is struggling in the polls against the hastily formed left-wing New Popular Front, made up of the Socialists, the Greens, the Communists and the far-left Indefatigable France (LFI).
“He killed the presidential majority,” said Edouard Philippe, leader of the Horizon party and a former prime minister.
“This decision has generated anxiety, incomprehension and, at times, anger among French people in every corner of our country,” Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said.
Why is this election so important?
For the first time, the Rally National could win power in France, despite widespread calls from voters to shun extreme policies.
The RN is led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella and in parliament by Marine Le Pen, who ran for president three times and lost each time.
But she won more votes each time, and now opinion polls suggest her party could become the largest in France, though it doesn’t have an absolute majority.
Le Pen is also focusing her attention on the next presidential election three years from now.
How are French elections conducted?
The National Assembly has 577 seats, including the 13 overseas regions and 11 constituencies that represent French citizens living abroad. A party needs 289 seats to win an absolute majority.
Macron’s coalition had just 250 seats in the outgoing parliament and needed to win support from other parties every time to pass legislation.
In the first round, any candidate who does not receive the support of 12.5 percent of local registered voters is eliminated.
A candidate who receives more than 50% of the vote with at least a quarter of local voters turning out automatically wins. Usually, this only happens in a few constituencies, but this time the RN is confident it can win in dozens.
The second round is a series of runoff elections between two, three or possibly four candidates.
With turnout expected to be high, Ipsos pollster Brice Teinturier predicts there could be a three-way race in at least 250 seats next Sunday.
Some candidates may withdraw before July 7 to give their allies a chance to prevent far-right or other rivals from winning.
What happens?
While nothing is certain because of the two-round voting system, political expert Jérôme Jaffray said there was a real risk for Macron’s camp that many of its lawmakers would not qualify at all or would barely qualify in third place.
The RN holds 88 seats in the outgoing parliament, but opinion polls suggest it could win by 220-260 votes.
Until now, voters have traditionally used “le vote utile” (strategic voting) to launch a “concentrated barrage” to exclude the far-right.
But the attack is likely to favor the left rather than Mr Macron’s ensemble, and many centre-right voters may prefer the FRF to the National Front, given the dominance of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left Unbowed France party.
What happens if Macron’s party loses?
Macron has said he will not step down as president no matter who wins.
If his party loses and the Rally National wins, the question is whether the Rally National can win an absolute majority of 289 seats or a majority equal to the relative majority that Macron’s camp has held since 2022.
A RN victory could pave the way for almost three years of “coexistence”, or power-sharing, with a president from one party leading the country and another running the government.
This situation has happened before where domestic policy is in the hands of the prime minister and foreign and defence policy in the hands of the president.
Will Jordan Bardella become Prime Minister?
According to the constitution, it is Macron who decides who will lead the next government. Bardella said he could not become prime minister unless the RN won an absolute majority, and added: “I don’t want to be an adviser to the president.”
The prime minister said a relative majority would prevent him from acting, adding: “I will not impose on the French people measures or actions that I cannot implement myself.”
But Macron will need to reflect the makeup of the new parliament, which could make it harder to pick someone else if the Rally National becomes the dominant party.
The party’s election posters portray Bardella as prime minister, and although he has a large presence on TikTok, his biggest job is as a member of the European Parliament, a position he has held since 2019.
Has cohabitation ever happened in France?
This has not been the case for over 20 years, because congressional elections now come shortly after presidential elections and voter preferences change little in between.
We have cohabited three times in the past.
1997-2002 Socialist Lionel Jospin served as prime minister under center-right President Jacques Chirac.
1993-95 Centre-right Prime Minister Édouard Balladur aligned himself with Socialist President François Mitterrand during his second term.
1986-88 Jacques Chirac served as Prime Minister under President François Mitterrand.
But France is in no way actually prepared for the coexistence that may occur after July 7.
Image source, Jean-Bernard Vernier/Sigma
Is the National Rally still far-right?
Marine Le Pen has long sought to “de-demonize” the party, or sanitize it, from the anti-Semitism and extremism of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen and his fellow founders of the National Front, which she renamed the Rally National.
While much of the party’s focus now is on the rising cost of living crisis, many of its strict anti-immigration policies remain, and a ruling this year by France’s highest administrative court, the Council of State, confirmed that the party can be considered “far-right.”
France captain Kylian Mbappe warned his countrymen that “both extremes are knocking on the doors of power”, to which Bardella hit back, saying billionaire athletes were “teaching those who are struggling to make ends meet”.
Bardella wants to ban dual French citizens, whom he calls “half-nationals”, from strategic positions, restrict social benefits for immigrants and end the automatic right to French citizenship for children of foreign-born parents.
However, banning the wearing of headscarves in public is not a priority for now.
It has also softened its anti-NATO and anti-EU policies, and quietly dissolved the National Coalition’s close ties with President Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Brexit is not on the agenda beyond 2022. Instead, Bardella is focused on cutting VAT on energy and 100 essential goods, as well as reversing Macron’s pension reforms within months.
What does the Left promise?
Image source, Ludovic Marin/AFP
The New Popular Front is an unlikely alliance of the Socialists, Greens, Communists and indomitable France.
They have promised to repeal Macron’s pension and immigration reforms and their policies are based on the idea that it’s either the far right or us.
Macron has accused the group of being “totally nativist” and allowing gender changes at city hall, accusations that have raised allegations of transphobia.
The Popular Front has pledged to fight anti-Semitism, despite fielding candidates who have been accused of making anti-Semitic remarks.
