The looks on the people’s faces and the loud shouts of victory said it all.
On the evening of July 7, after the polling stations closed, tens of thousands of Parisians gathered at Place de la République to await the results of the first exit polls (which are usually a reliable early indicator of how French elections are going). Photos, videos, and online livestreams give a sense of the atmosphere: a mix of anxiety and fervor as people held banners, placards, flares, and slogans, waiting to face the results together.
And then came the moment when the square delivered a startling prediction that few expected. Contrary to the polls, media predictions, and the understandable fears of many French people, it was the New Popular Front (NFP), the newly formed coalition of the French left, that won the most seats in the new National Assembly. The far-right, neo-fascist party, the National Rally (RN), did not even have the satisfaction of coming second, falling to third place. The enthusiasm, noise, and hopeful joy of the assembled people reverberated through towns and cities across France, a chorus of proud voices in the reassertion of the left as the main bulwark against the fascist advance.
READ ALSO | European Parliament elections: Far-right advances, centre adapts
The next morning, on July 8, the official results of these second and final parliamentary elections were confirmed. With a 63% voter turnout, the highest second-round turnout since 1981, the NFP won a total of 186 seats, making it the largest group in the new National Assembly. Macron’s Ensemble (“Together”) came in second with 166 seats, and the RN came in third with 143. A further 65 seats went to various parties on the right, including the once-powerful Republicans (Les Républicains: LR).
Hung Parliament
The French parliament is currently made up of three clearly defined blocs, and although the left is dominant, none of them has a clear majority – a hanging parliament with a very strong left presence.
For neither of the two losing candidates, it was meant to be. For Marine Le Pen, the astute helmsman of the Rally National, the result is a shocking setback. Expectations had been high following the party’s breakthrough in the European Parliament elections in early June. It then performed equally strongly in the first round of parliamentary elections on June 30, with the Rally National again winning the largest single-party vote. It seemed as though the moment of seizing power that Le Pen’s camp had been working so hard for since her father, the avowed fascist Jean-Marie, first came to power in 1972.
And the results came, and once again the dream was shattered.
Surprising results
Meanwhile, at the Élysée Palace, President Emmanuel Macron may have been regretting his stunned decision on June 12 to dissolve Parliament and call general elections at the end of this month. By any standards, this was a big gamble that (to most people) could clearly go horribly wrong. From his bottomless treasury of vanity and self-confidence, Macron seemed to have foreseen, or rather envisioned, an election campaign that would culminate in an epic confrontation between him and Marine Le Pen, the embodiment of French republican values and the soul of France, a battle that would enable him to emerge victorious, reinvigorated and bold to embark on the remainder of his second term as president.
The election was widely seen as a fierce battle between Marine Le Pen of the National Rally and President Emmanuel Macron of the Renaissance party. | Photo credit: AFP
This scenario was based on the assumption that the historically divided French left would not be able to come together, especially with the deadline looming. In fact, it was quick to set aside its differences (temporarily) and join a concerted attack on the far right. The driving force behind this development was France Inthomise (LFI, “France Without Folds”), a radical left organisation founded in 2016 by the plucky Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which was a major talking point of the elections.
The central role that Mélenchon and his fellow party activists played in shaping the election result deserves much more emphasis than it has received in media commentary. Every step of the process of launching the offensive, from uniting contentious and sometimes mutually antagonistic leaders of the left, to successfully hammering out a common platform, could not have happened without LFI. This fact helps explain the ferocious attacks launched against it by political opponents and the mainstream media. During the election campaign, Mélenchon was particularly targeted, facing daily personal attacks and unfounded accusations of anti-Semitism, replicating the tactics used across the Channel to destroy Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn’s bid for leadership.
READ ALSO | A major boost for Europe’s far-right?
Despite what everyone around the world recognizes as a shocking election result, Macron’s government and the country’s political establishment seem intent on denying it ever happened. They are carrying on as if they are in a parallel universe, as if nothing has changed, as if no one, especially not the emerging left-wing coalition, has won, as if they don’t have to adapt to an unfamiliar and awkward new political situation.
According to established practice in France, the president asks the largest party or coalition in the newly elected parliament to form a government with a prime minister from its ranks. Macron seems determined to ignore this precedent. He has already brushed off a formal resignation proposed by Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, as the 2024 Paris Olympics looms, raising “security” challenges that can only be addressed through the highest levels of stability and continuity. Meanwhile, efforts are underway to pull apart the nascent Popular Front by identifying weak links and making deals with those willing to make a deal.
By continuing to present the progressive and carefully costed common platform of the New Popular Front as the only viable way forward, Insubordinate France is strengthening its position on the French left as the country’s most principled, credible and effective force for radical change. The news that local committees to defend and build the Popular Front are already being established (the first in the southern city of Marseille) underscores the urgency of the situation and the people’s readiness to expand the front and take the struggle in new directions.
Susan Lamb has spent much of her life looking at the world from different geographic locations. Born in London, she studied politics and international relations before moving to South Asia, first to Nepal and then to India, where she did fieldwork in Tamil Nadu before settling there for 20 years.
