Pakistan’s regions, including Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, have faced economic crises and associated violence in recent years, but the country’s economic priorities remain in disarray. China owes Pakistan billions of dollars, and one of the ways Islamabad manages this debt is by buying arms from Beijing.
These excessive arms purchases by Pakistan have led to increased dependence on China for arms. Data shows that 82% of Islamabad’s arms imports from 2019 to 2023 were Chinese-made, up from 51% from 2009 to 2013. Recently, China launched a Hangor-class submarine for the Pakistan Navy, which will be built by 2028 to enhance Pakistan’s underwater capabilities.
Pakistan has become one of the main markets for Chinese arms supplies. According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), more than 60 percent of Chinese arms exports go to Pakistan. As a result, Pakistan is the fifth largest arms importer in the world.
These activities between Pakistan and China have raised concerns in the international community. Empirical evidence shows that excessive military spending does not contribute to economic growth in developing countries. Instead, spending on education, infrastructure and job creation would bring greater benefits. For example, investing in education involves building schools, hiring teachers and preparing future talent. On the other hand, arms purchases and R&D cooperation with China do not contribute significantly to socio-economic development and instead only increase tensions in the region.
Recent defense deals indicate that China may be undermining Islamabad’s sovereignty. Pakistan is in arms deals due to debt obligations and is economically dependent on China. This is why Islamabad’s arsenal is upgraded for China’s strategic interests, not because of any imminent threat. Some believe this is another example of Chinese dumping practices, similar to their practices with electric cars and solar panels in the Western market. In Pakistan, the only acceptable way of paying off debts seems to be buying weapons from China.
These deals create an environment of tension and potential conflict in the region. The acquisition of advanced aircraft, missiles and other military equipment is seen as an attempt to build a regional deterrent. The recent conflict in Gilgit-Baltistan and the economic crisis in Pakistan-administered Kashmir have already caused destabilization in the region. Given Pakistan’s history of conflicts with India and Afghanistan, intrastate conflicts and terrorist activities, this is a concern for the international community. There are fears that the advanced submarines involved in the deals may be used as carriers of nuclear weapons. Given Pakistan’s track record in regional peace and stability, the acquisition of new weapons is a concern for the international community.
Increasing potential risks and threats from Pakistan may encourage neighboring countries to acquire more weapons, leading to an arms race. Historically, arms races have created an environment of hostility and uncertainty, as evidenced by world wars and the Cold War.
Pakistan has recently been facing its worst economic crisis since independence and is struggling with billions of dollars in loans from countries like the IMF and China. This has resulted in recurring political unrest in different provinces due to underlying issues like inflation, rising costs of basic goods like electricity and food, unemployment, etc. The Prime Minister has announced a grant of $86 million for Pakistan-administered Kashmir, but the question remains: How will it be funded? Will it endanger Islamabad’s economic sovereignty by taking further loans from China?
Pakistan’s military already spends a significant portion of the national budget on its maintenance and modernization. This situation is further complicated by the arms deal with China, with which Islamabad feels compelled to get involved. Pakistan faces a critical choice: prioritize socio-economic development, sovereignty and economic stability, or continue to accommodate Chinese interests that could destabilize the regional balance of power and world peace. Given the current economic and political situation, where millions are impoverished and struggling to survive, engaging in an arms race could strengthen Pakistan’s position as a nation facing significant challenges.
