In preparation for this year’s election, the LeRoy Collins Institute at Florida State University has conducted extensive research into the 2022 election, creating a sort of numerical picture of Florida’s electorate.
The Florida Election Study 2022 is the political equivalent of the statistical analysis that professional baseball fans consult before the season to get inside information that foreshadows unexpected outcomes.
Data from an online survey of 14,000 registered voters will tell us who voted, how they voted, and whether they trusted the results. The survey was conducted between November 2022 and February 2023.
The voter registration dataset includes comparisons of party registration and voter turnout, voter registration and total population, and voter turnout in Republican-dominated and Democratic-dominated areas.
Other details include, for example, how much money candidates raised and how long voters waited in line to cast their ballots.
Key findings include the continued rise in popularity of voting by mail, with 69% of Florida voters citing its convenience — an 11-point increase from 58% in 2020.
And the data reveals that Democrats and Republicans are mirror images of each other, revealing a glaring chasm when it comes to election integrity and security.
- 86% of Republicans prioritize preventing fraud over ensuring easy voter access, while 86% of Democrats say ensuring access is more important.
- On a four-point scale, Democrats have a confidence rating of 3.6 in accurate national elections, while Republicans have a confidence rating of 2.2.
Heightened interest in election piques curiosity at Collins Institute
Four years ago, growing interest in the election and a dramatic increase in voter registration in Florida prompted the nonpartisan Collins Institute to conduct a biannual survey.
Florida’s registered voter population has more than doubled in 20 years, from 5 million in 2002 to 11 million in 2022.
Republicans took advantage of the growing number of voters, surpassing Democrats in registered voters by 383,954, and then succeeded in attracting voters to the polls.
Republicans make up 36% of eligible voters but 45% of those who voted. Democrats make up 34% of eligible voters and 33% of those who voted two years ago.
The margin affected the double-digit reelection victories of Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio.
The institute’s director, Rona Atkeson, said having benchmarks from the past two federal election cycles, 2020 and 2022, would help gauge the state of this year’s election.
“We’re interested to see whether the distribution of party voters, for example in terms of turnout, represents a new normal in Florida,” Atkeson said.
Florida achieved “purple state” status due to its average statewide election victory margin of 0.08% over six election cycles.
2022 was an exceptional year, as DeSantis won reelection by 19 points and Republicans gained momentum by winning 59% of the seats in the state House of Representatives and 60% of the seats in the Florida Senate.
The survey concludes that conditions remain very favorable for Republicans heading into the 2024 elections.
Florida isn’t necessarily a “deep red state”
But like most statistical analyses, the ruling comes with a caveat, with an asterisk noting that the 2022 results will not necessarily make Florida a “deep red state.” This is because Florida’s state of partisanship has changed over the three decades leading up to 2022, with the share of independent voters jumping from 9% to 30%.
“NPAs, by their nature of large numbers and loose partisan affiliations, provide room for split voting and act as swing votes in key elections,” the study concluded.
According to the poll numbers, the DeSantis campaign has raised more than $202 million, more than any other gubernatorial candidate in U.S. history.
Democrats essentially sat out the election, but efforts to increase voter turnout failed, and counties where Democrats had leads in voter registration saw lower turnout than other counties.
Additionally, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist raised $32 million, the standard amount for a campaign, but he and other candidates were unable to match the Republican advantages in financial strength and voter registration.
Republican voter turnout outnumbered Democrats by more than 12 points, and Republicans won every statewide election, capturing an overwhelming majority of congressional elections and all seats in the Florida House and Senate.
“It’s not because the Florida GOP has a great message — if it did, DeSantis would still be campaigning for president,” said Tara Newsom, a political science professor at St. Petersburg College who has written about how political parties focus on their bases and disenfranchise independents.
“Democrats have left Florida, they haven’t invested in it. The national party has torn the state party apart,” Newsom said of the 2022 election results.
James Call is a member of the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jcall@tallahassee.com or X @ColeTallahassee.
