Good news for summer road trippers: Despite news of oil production cuts, the recent decline in gasoline prices is expected to continue for the next few months, making the average American driver’s gas bill a little less of a hassle, experts say.
According to AAA, the national average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. is $3.503 per gallon as of June 5. That’s down slightly from $3.559 per gallon a week ago and down from earlier this year, when the average price peaked around $3.67. Still, prices are still much higher than they were at the beginning of the year and typically rise each year as summer arrives.
AAA and GasBuddy, which track prices, expect gasoline prices to remain in the mid-$3 range this season, with some stations dropping prices to under $2.99 a gallon. That would put gas prices in line with last summer’s levels and lower than they were in 2022, when demand soared due to several factors, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“There were so many imbalances that needed to be fixed in 2022, and now they have been fixed,” said Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “After two years of steep increases, the economy has stabilized, and I expect gas prices to trend downwards through the summer.”
AAA spokesman Andrew Gross also predicts a “slow and steady decline” in prices over the coming months. That’s assuming current conditions continue, which isn’t a sure thing come summer, especially with experts warning of a potentially devastating hurricane season. No one can predict the future, but storms along the Gulf Coast could disrupt oil production and drive up costs.
Gross said extreme heat could also be an issue, especially in the Southwest, where an extremely hot summer is expected this year.
“Refineries don’t like extreme temperatures. They’re like Goldilocks,” he says. “If it’s too hot, they have to cut production. If the temperature drops, they bring production back up.”
Conflicts overseas are also playing a role: The Israel-Gaza conflict and the war in Ukraine aren’t currently affecting prices, but that could change, said Tom Seng, an assistant professor at Texas Christian University’s Neeley College of Business who has more than 30 years of experience in the natural gas industry.
“Oil supplies are uninterrupted. Whenever there is conflict, it is a concern. [the Middle East]”For now, the market doesn’t seem worried,” Seng said.
Even the news that OPEC+ agreed to extend crude oil production cuts into next year didn’t have a big impact because the outcome was already priced into the market, he said. Oil makes up about 50% or more of gasoline prices.
Seng said prices were falling partly because rising costs earlier this year led to lower consumer demand.
“Gasoline prices have been higher since Jan. 1 than they were a year ago and have been creeping up,” he said. “I believe the American consumer has said, ‘Okay, I’m going to use less gasoline and find other ways to do it.'”
Of course, prices vary greatly depending on location, and Gross says prices could fall significantly in the Western U.S., because that’s where the costs are highest to begin with. According to AAA, the lowest average costs currently are in Mississippi ($2.99), Arkansas ($3.01), and Oklahoma ($3.02), while the most expensive are in California ($5), Hawaii ($4.76), and Washington ($4.47).
Tips for saving on gasoline
- Remove the pedal from the metal“Be aware of your driving style and how it affects your gas mileage,” says de Haan. Speeding from stoplight to stoplight and slamming on the brakes at every red light will make your car use more gas.
- Use the app to find deals“No one buys a big-screen TV before going to Amazon, Costco, or Best Buy,” de Haan says. “The same goes for gas.” So shop smart: Apps like GasBuddy can help you find the cheapest options near you, and your local gas station’s app might offer discounts and special offers.
- Get the right membership“Some credit cards offer discounts or cash back on gas purchases, and local grocery store chains and buyers clubs may also offer membership discounts,” says Renee Horn, chief marketing and customer experience officer at Chase Auto.
- Don’t pack it all inIf you have to stop at a more expensive gas station, “consider filling up with enough gas to get you safely to the next gas station, where the price is likely to be more affordable,” Horn suggests.
- Let’s make a plan. De Haan said state borders can mean big price differences due to taxes, so if you’re taking a road trip from one state to the next, try to make stops in areas where gas is cheaper.
