TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A ceasefire proposal announced by President Joe Biden has placed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a crossroads, and which path he chooses will shape the legacy of Israel’s longest-serving and deeply divisive leader.
suggestion This would end Israel’s war with Hamas, return scores of hostages held by the Islamist group, calm the northern border with Lebanon and potentially move forward with a historic agreement to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia.
But it could also shatter Netanyahu’s governing coalition, sending him into the opposition and making him even more likely to be convicted. His corruption trialThe agreement calls for a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops. Hamas may claim victory And then rebuild yourself.
On the other hand, if Prime Minister Netanyahu rejects the agreement, Israel’s International isolationThis strained relations with a US administration keen to end the war and exposed him to accusations that he had abandoned the hostages to protect his own interests.
It’s a conundrum, which may explain the odd staging of Biden’s Friday night speech, with the US president announcing a purported Israeli proposal on the Jewish Sabbath, a day when Israel’s political class is largely silent.
Netanyahu acknowledged the proposal, which was conveyed to Hamas through an intermediary, but then appeared to contradict Biden’s remarks, saying Israel remained committed to dismantling Hamas’ military and governing capacity and that talk of a permanent ceasefire by then was “pointless.”
On Monday, he said destroying Hamas was “part of the proposal” and was quoted as saying at a closed parliamentary hearing that Israel reserved the right to go to war again if that objective was not achieved.
But what would it mean to destroy Hamas? Is that possible?Biden said Israel had weakened Hamas to the point that it was no longer able to carry out attacks like the one on October 7, and that continuing the war risked Israel becoming trapped in Gaza.
But Netanyahu appears to be seeking an even bigger victory.
“Netanyahu’s ultimate goal is survival.”
Netanyahu’s critics fear he will reject a cease-fire to appease his ultra-nationalist government partners, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who want to continue the war, fully reoccupy Gaza and rebuild Jewish settlements there.
They have already vowed to quit if the proposals put forward by Biden go ahead, and while Netanyahu’s political opponents say they offer a safety net if he reaches a deal to free the hostages, they are unlikely to help him stay in power long-term.
“Netanyahu is paying close attention to all demands and threats by Ben Gvir and Smotrich,” said Israeli political analyst Tal Schneider. “Netanyahu’s ultimate goal is survival.”
The current Netanyahu government, which was elected in late 2022 after five consecutive elections, is the most nationalistic and religious government in Israeli history. Establishment of Israeli occupation of the West Bankultra-Orthodox Jewish community Dependence on government subsidies And he began reforming the judicial system. Divided the country.
The coalition started with a slim majority of 64 seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament, enough to run a government but fragile, leaving Netanyahu’s fortunes subject to the whims of the smaller parties that make up his government.
A veteran of ‘difficult’ politics
Immediately after Hamas attack on October 7 sparks war in GazaBenny Gantz, a former army commander and Netanyahu’s main political rival, joined the government in a show of solidarity. Netanyahu, Gantz and Defense Minister Yoav Galant formed a three-man war cabinet to lead the offensive.
Netanyahu biographer Mazar Muallem said the effort was largely successful in pushing aside the ultranationalists and allowing Netanyahu to run the government in a more pragmatic manner that had characterized his 17 years in office dating back to the 1990s.
She pointed. Israel’s Limited Response Ben Gvir criticized Iranian airstrikes in April as “weak,” and Smotrich initially opposed but later voted for a ceasefire and hostage release agreement with Hamas in November.
“Bibi has taught himself over the years to do what he wants in a difficult political environment,” she said, calling Netanyahu by his nickname.
But Gantz He threatened to quit the government. Unless Netanyahu presents a post-war plan by June 8, his reliance on Smotrich and Ben Gvir will increase significantly.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s decision to press ahead with a major Israeli military operation in Gaza while scores of hostages are still being held has been heavily criticised by many Israelis, including the families of those held hostage. Thousands have taken part in protests. Mass protests every week.
“The Israeli government has abandoned its hostages,” Yehi Yehud, whose adult children are being held hostage in Gaza, told Israeli Army Radio. “Bibi, you have no right or moral justification to sacrifice them for the sake of political survival.”
Opportunities and risks
Netanyahu’s hardline stance has also put a strain on relations with Israel’s closest ally, the United States, which has provided crucial military aid but has expressed outrage over civilian casualties and Israel’s lack of realistic post-war plans.
Internationally, Israel is The crime of genocideHe denies it and an international arrest warrant may be issued. To Netanyahu himself.
In a speech on Friday, Biden appeared to offer Netanyahu a solution: declare victory, saying a battered Hamas is no longer capable of such attacks as on October 7, bring home all the hostages and then work with the United States and Arab nations to forge a new regional security architecture.
But fear of losing power may prevail.
Netanyahu has long cultivated the image of being the only one capable of overcoming Israel’s myriad foreign and security challenges. But that image took a major hit on October 7, when many Israelis directly blamed him for the worst security failure in the country’s history. Opinion polls suggest that Netanyahu is trailing Gantz and would struggle to form a government if elections were held today.
Despite his threats, his far-right allies face a similar predicament: If early elections are called, they would likely join him in the opposition, losing the powers given to him over Israeli police and settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank.
Netanyahu could salvage his image if he can hold onto his coalition government until the next elections, scheduled for 2026. His approval rating has already started to rise after falling since Oct. 7, as he has signaled his willingness to withstand international pressure to end the war.
Former Netanyahu adviser Aviv Bushinsky said Netanyahu’s wartime decision-making has less to do with immediate political survival and more to do with securing a legacy that won’t be completely overshadowed by Oct. 7. That requires some kind of victory over Hamas.
“From a historical perspective, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s only option is to see it through to the end,” he said, adding that Ben Gvir and Smotrich are “helping him get there and keep his head above water.”
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