It’s the weekend!Tonight, we see a silver lining for Biden in battleground polls — and, inspired by a Supreme Court justice, we i want to hear your story Political disputes with neighbors.
A series of polls in battleground states released this week were filled with doom and gloom for President Biden. Trump is behind in five key states that Donald Trump won in 2020, with Nevada and Georgia largely out of reach.
But a closer look at the data reveals a silver lining for his campaign and other Democrats as well. Nearly two years after the defeat of Roe v. Wade, a group of deep-rooted voters are prioritizing abortion above all other issues.
A New York Times, Siena College, and Philadelphia Inquirer poll found that 11% of voters in six battleground states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan — had no choice but to vote. answered that abortion was the most important issue. . While this is not a large share, it is about the same size as the 12% of voters who said they cared most about immigration, and in a battleground state that will likely decide the presidential election, abortion remains a hot topic among voters. It shows that it is increasing.
Among women, the percentage of voters who prioritize abortion above all else rises to 17%. Only slightly behind the economy, 19 percent of women chose it as the most important issue.
The poll shows how important the issue is as a motivating factor as abortion rights erode in this country. And while the poll highlights the fact that Mr. Trump is out of step with most voters on abortion, it’s not as much of an electoral vulnerability for him as still thought.
Our poll shows that 64% of voters in battleground states want abortion to be legal all or most of the time, a number that is little changed from a similar poll we conducted last fall. President Trump, who nominated three of the Supreme Court justices who voted in favor of Roe’s ouster, has argued that abortion rights should be left to individual states, many of whom have responded in the wake of Roe’s ouster. It has strict abortion regulations. But in reality, Trump outperformed Biden among voters in battleground states who believed abortion should be mostly legal, 49% to 41%, and these voters understood Trump’s stance on abortion. This suggests that they do not believe that abortion is a deal-breaker.
Abortion rights supporters see it as an area where Biden and other Democrats can improve their standing.
“What we need to do is educate voters about the choices they face in this election,” said Jessica Mackler, president of Emily’s List, a political action committee that works to elect women who support abortion rights. “It’s the additional task of having a dialogue with people.” She supports Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ reelection bid.
“If we do that, we win,” she added.
Who voted for abortion?
Our pollsters asked voters open-ended questions about which issues were most important to them in deciding their vote. Voters who choose abortion are more likely to be white, educated, and female than the overall electorate.
They were also more likely to be Democrats. Twenty percent of Democrats say abortion is the most important issue, compared to 9% of independents and just 4% of Republicans. (Some of those who answered “abortion” may have opposed rather than supported abortion rights.)
Ruth Igielnik, Barron’s polling editor, told me that Democratic women were more than twice as likely to prioritize abortion over the economy. 26% of Democratic women said abortion was the most important issue, and 11% of Democratic women chose the economy. These numbers were effectively reversed for Republican women. Of these, 7% chose abortion and 29% chose economics.
Pamela Norman, 76, a retired Democrat from Arizona, said the issue resonates deeply with women of her generation.
“Let me be frank: I’m black, and that’s why I saw it coming 10 years ago,” Norman said, adding that her generation had a long history of protected abortion rights. However, her daughters’ generation lamented the decline in abortion rights.
Tara Schiraldi, 33, a public defender in West Philadelphia, said the abortion issue is important to her because it represents the idea of a country that is rolling back the rights of its citizens.
That’s the main reason she plans to vote for Mr. Biden and Sen. Bob Casey, a Pennsylvania Democrat, even though she doesn’t feel particularly enthusiastic about them.
“I would take things that I feel lukewarm about more than things that I feel are a direct threat to myself or the people I care about,” Schiraldi said.
Good news for Trump
During his 2016 presidential campaign, Trump vowed to appoint Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe. After they did, he bragged that he “could have killed Roe v. Wade.”
But over the past month, he has sought to obscure his position by calling for the matter to be referred back to the state. His administration supported a 20-week abortion ban. Additionally, he recently said he would not sign a federal ban.
Our polling suggests his approach may be working. 56% of voters blame President Trump for Roe’s demise, but more than 40% of voters blame Biden, who is not even a candidate, or don’t know who to blame. go up to
And 44% of President Trump’s own supporters believe abortion should be legal most or all of the time. That means for them, President Trump’s position on abortion and its impact on Roe are no deal-breakers.
Ryan Stewart, 38, an independent voter from Doylestown, Pennsylvania, agreed, saying he is leaning toward Trump. A liberal, he believes abortion should always be legal and doesn’t expect President Trump to agree with him, but he thinks economic issues are more important to him. .
He said abortion was “not a pressing issue for me.”
But the issue gives some Trump supporters pause. Chloe Langley, 18, considers herself a Republican. She believes Biden is too old for another term, and she thinks she will vote for Trump in the fall. But the only thing she has reservations about is the issue of abortion.
“That’s the only thing I don’t know if I’m going to vote for him or not,” said Langley, a high school student. “Because that would be like taking away basic human rights that I believe people should have.”
Biden supporters will work hard to attract voters like Langley. They believe that abortion rights issues will drive voters away from candidates with whom they disagree, as long as voters understand the candidates’ positions.
“If you ask voters, ‘Would you vote for a Republican who holds these views?’ most of the time they’ll say no,” said Mackler, president of Emily’s List.
There is some evidence that this is the case. A poll by the progressive group Navigator Research found that 38% of voters said they would not vote for a candidate with anti-abortion views, ranking abortion at the top of all issues asked. It’s a “breach of agreement.” However, inflation and immigration were not far behind.
Go to reply
Tell me about your neighborhood nightmares (political ones anyway)
You can’t choose your family. And you can’t choose your neighbors either.
This week, my colleague Jodi Cantor revealed that the upside-down American flag, a symbol of the Stop the Steal movement that claimed the 2020 election was stolen, was stolen from former President Trump, and that Supreme Court Justice Samuel・It was reported that it was displayed outside Alito’s home. Justice Alito told the New York Times that his wife put up the flag in response to “offensive” signs put up by neighbors.
This is the kind of red flag that raises urgent questions about Justice Alito’s impartiality as the court considers whether to hear cases related to the 2020 election. But this is also a story as old as a dead end: a story about political conflict within neighboring countries.
What we want to know is: Have you ever fought with your neighbor over politics? Have you ever fought over a sign in your yard or the appropriate political display? What is the politics of dealing with the politics of your neighbor?
Please spill it. Please tell me the details. We will not use your name or identifying information unless we contact you and you give us permission to do so.
Submit your story here.
Run-up
…One more thing later
What do Judge Eileen Cannon, Kendrick Lamar, and a dog named Cricket have in common?
They are all people not named Trump or Biden who could influence the race between Trump and Biden.
This week I joined The Run-Up, an excellent political podcast hosted by my colleague Asted Herndon, to talk about these three figures and many more. You’ll also hear about a particularly harrowing experience we had during the 2020 presidential campaign. Please try to hear!
Thank you for reading. Enjoy your weekend! I’ll be back on Monday.
