Analysts expect health care spending trends to be 8%.
In contrast, PwC Group’s forecast for medical expenses is 8% in 2023 and 7.5% this year.
PwC analysts forecast trends based on interviews with health insurance actuaries.
Medical cost trends show how much your health insurance plan’s medical costs would be if your plan’s benefits remained the same.
PwC analysts declined to disclose total health-benefits spending figures. Mercer estimates that employers spend about $16,000 per employee per year on health-benefits, or about $1,333 per employee per month.
Health care cost trends in 2025 are projected to show overall inflation of less than 4% and employee wage growth of less than 5%.
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The increase in projected health care costs in 2025 is due in part to patients seeking care after postponing it during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The increase is also due to the growing use of Wegovy and other expensive GLP-1 agonists to fight obesity.
Ultimately, GLP-1 agonists could reduce spending across health plans by lowering the costs of treating conditions such as diabetes, cancer and heart disease, the analysts wrote.
Today, however, employers are beginning to realize the impact GLP-1 agonists have on prescription drug spending.
These drugs increased employer prescription costs by $23.16 per enrollee per month in the second half of 2023, up from less than $13.56 per enrollee per month in 2022, PwC analysts said, citing data from Employers Health, a pharmacy benefits management group purchasing organization.
Analysts have warned that cost pressures on employer health plans could worsen as providers try to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, Medicare and Medicaid’s tough reimbursement strategies and health care worker demands for higher wages and more staffing.
