Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a tight race in the battleground state of Wisconsin, according to an exclusive new poll from USA TODAY and Suffolk University.
In Wisconsin, with about a week until Election Day, a statewide poll of 500 likely voters found Trump and Harris tied, 48% to 47%. . The result was within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted from October 20th to 23rd.
But in Door County, Wisconsin, which has been a bellwether for the state, Harris has a slight advantage. The poll of 300 likely Door County voters shows Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump in this area, 50% to 47%. The results are still within 5.7 percentage points of error.
Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes, is one of the key battleground states where Trump and Harris are aiming to make a run for the presidency.
The state, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, is considered a “blue wall” state that has been a Democratic bulwark for decades. Trump flipped all three states in 2016, contributing to his presidential bid. In 2020, Biden recaptured all three states.
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Most Wisconsin voters have already made up their minds, with only 2% saying they are undecided.
One voter, Robert Olin of Milwaukee, said he was voting for Trump because he was disappointed in the current administration’s response to multiple policies, from the economy to Middle East diplomacy to the U.S.-Mexico border. . He said he believes President Trump’s policies will improve the country.
“I strongly agree with his position on healing the country and becoming a country that is not run by the media or other groups, that follows the law, and recognizes that there are real ways to solve our economic problems,” the 68-year-old said. Orin said. Trump’s. He also voted for Trump in the last election.
For Olin, the high costs nationwide have a personal impact. He owns a coffee shop and said high inflation since the pandemic has had a “very dramatic impact” on his business. The operating costs of sustaining a business have increased and buying coffee is now a luxury for most customers.
“When our business suffers, I suffer,” he said.
But fellow Milwaukee resident Mary Beth LaHaye plans to vote for Harris. The 70-year-old said she was impressed by Harris’ “willingness to work across the aisle and bring the two sides together again.”
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“Our current political system is broken,” LaHaye said. She said her top priorities are keeping Social Security and Medicare intact and restoring reproductive rights.
LaHaye, who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, said she was concerned about President Trump’s comments and whether the president would accept the election results.
“We know that even if Trump wins, Kamala Harris will not storm the Capitol,” she said. “However, if Kamala Harris wins, I don’t know if President Trump will make statements that incite people to violence, as he did on January 6, 2021.”
Widening gender disparity
While there is typically a gender gap between supporters of Trump and Harris, David Palaiologos, director of the Center for Political Research at Suffolk University, said the effect of that difference is more pronounced in the state.
In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by 14 points (55% to 41%) among women. Among men, however, Trump has an 18-point lead over Harris, 56% to 38%.
Harris’ approval rating among women is slightly lower than the national approval rating, but Trump’s lead among men is consistent. Harris leads Trump by 17 points among female voters nationwide, 53% to 36%, according to the latest national poll from USA TODAY and Suffolk University. Among men, Trump holds a 16-point lead over Harris nationally, 53% to 37%.
“[Trump]recognizes, or perceives, that men are rallying behind Trump more than when Biden ran against Trump,” Paleologos said. said.
Paul Zerling, a Brookfield, Wisconsin, resident, said he will vote for former President Trump because he already has a proven track record. He added that he doesn’t know what Harris has done as vice president and feels like she turned the issue upside down.
“He was president before anything happened. There was no doom or gloom,” said Mr. Zarling, 47, who has traditionally voted Republican.
Mary Kay Wagner, 69, of South Milwaukee, has already voted for Harris in this election. Wagner considers himself an independent and voted for Biden in 2020. She said she believes Harris can improve the economy and restore access to abortion.
“I voted for her because she has a very pragmatic approach to the issues facing this country,” Wagner said. “We know that a dynamic, growing economy enables everyone to thrive.”
In Door County, Paleologos cited the gender gap and high median age as reasons why the county’s trends may be favorable for vice president.
“The demographics in Door County could deviate a little bit from the typical lead in this election,” he said. “So I think that’s why the lead is leaning a little more toward Democrats.”
Some voters remain divided and dissatisfied
Although the majority of voters have already made up their minds, a small number of voters in the state still don’t know who they will support for president.
Susan Sauerberg of Cedarburg said access to abortion and women’s reproductive health are policies high on her list, and she believes President Trump will make it even harder for women. But when it comes to foreign policy, particularly Israel’s war in Gaza, Sauerberg isn’t sure whether Harris is up to the task.
“I’m voting,” Sauerberg, 60, said. “I might just say a prayer and follow what my intuition says in that moment.”
And for Samuel Beaver, a 20-year-old college student living in Madison, neither Trump nor Harris were good options. Bieber, whose mother is Nicaraguan, said Trump was never an option because of his comments and immigration policies. But Harris has rolled back many of her policies, including transgender rights and gender-affirming care, he said.
Mr Bieber said he would vote for the Green Party’s Jill Stein instead.
“The most pressing issues on my mind are things like U.S. foreign policy, especially the differences between Republicans and Democrats,” he said. “I feel like we’re both doing the same thing.”
Sarah Paul, 43, of Random Lake, said she would vote for Harris. She supports Harris’ passion for abortion access and LGBTQ issues, and believes Trump’s demeaning words about military personnel and people with disabilities are “not what a president should do.”
“Our choices are not perfect,” she said. “That rarely happens.”
