CNN
—
President Joe Biden’s authority to quickly de-escalate the war between Israel and Hamas has suffered two serious new blows.
A rescue operation by Israeli special forces in Gaza that freed four hostages but killed numerous Palestinian civilians, and the resignation of centrist Benny Gantz from Israel’s war cabinet on Sunday deepened the political and diplomatic dilemma that Biden has been trying to resolve for months.
• The return of the four hostages was a moment of joy for their families and the entire Israeli public and was welcomed by the United States. But the operation’s humanitarian toll highlights the carnage inflicted by Israel on civilians, who Hamas frequently used as human shields in the war that erupted when the Islamist militant group attacked Israel on October 7.
• The recent bloodshed in Gaza could further deepen the rift between Biden and the progressive wing of his electoral coalition, who are angry at Biden for supporting Israel and its military operations and not doing enough to protect civilians. A significant drop in this constituency’s vote could jeopardize Biden in battleground states where a rematch with Donald Trump could be decided by a few thousand votes. The issue is particularly problematic in Michigan, which could decide the outcome in November, as it has a large Arab American population. Vice President Kamala Harris confronted protesters during a speech in the key battleground state on Saturday night as she welcomed the release of the hostages while mourning the civilians who were killed.
• The rescue operation also highlights the disparity between Palestinian and Israeli death tolls in the conflict, which could further isolate Israel internationally from countries terrified by Hamas attacks and cause further tensions between Washington and its allies over the war. Hamas attacks have killed around 1,200 Israelis and thousands of Palestinians in Gaza.
• The bloodiest day in six months, according to Gaza officials, could also further narrow the political space for key Arab countries involved in intense U.S. diplomatic efforts to end the fighting. Still, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Qatar again this week to try to step up pressure on Hamas to reach a deal.
The resignation of Gantz, a former army general who has said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no plans for an ultimate victory in Gaza or what will happen afterwards, will have significant consequences at home and abroad but is unlikely to change Israeli politics.
• Gantz’s departure is unlikely to immediately lead to Netanyahu’s ouster, as his party is not in the prime minister’s coalition. If Netanyahu were ultimately to be ousted, the Biden administration would be pleased given his tense relationship with the prime minister, his failure to accept U.S. requests to do more to protect Palestinian civilians, and his willingness to side with Republicans to use the conflict to damage Biden.
• But Gantz’s absence could force Netanyahu to rely more on far-right elements of his ruling coalition, who have been demanding a more thoroughgoing war effort, raising the risk of escalating tensions and escalating a broader smoldering regional war in which the United States is involved.
• Gantz’s absence could also pose an even bigger obstacle to approval of a peace deal between Israel and Hamas. The only member of the emergency government with decision-making powers other than Netanyahu is Defense Minister Yoav Galant, of the prime minister’s Likud party.
• The division of Israel’s war cabinet and Prime Minister Gantz’s call for elections amid growing protests against Prime Minister Netanyahu could have unpredictable consequences for Israel. Thousands of people took to the streets in several cities this weekend, calling for the release of the remaining hostages and the opportunity to vote.
The latest developments in the Gaza conflict came as Biden visited France to mark the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings, a trip he used to warn of growing threats to global democracy and to step up political attacks on Trump and his predecessor’s increasingly apparent authoritarian tendencies.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan summarized the administration’s complicated political-diplomatic conundrum during an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union.” With the Eiffel Tower as a backdrop on Sunday, he told Dana Bash that the United States was “not participating militarily” in the operation to rescue the four Israeli hostages after a U.S. official said earlier that a U.S. “official” in Israel had taken part in the hostage-freeing effort. Sullivan said U.S. assets were assisting Israel in locating those held after the Oct. 7 attack.
Sullivan also doubled down on the U.S. call for a ceasefire despite doubts that Hamas would agree to one and a view among some Democrats in Washington that Netanyahu may try to prolong the war to bolster his hopes of political survival. Washington has lobbied hard for a halt to the fighting. But the failure to make a breakthrough has raised questions about U.S. influence and Biden’s prestige on the global stage with five months to go until Election Day.
“The best way to bring all the hostages home and protect Palestinian civilians is to end this war. And the best way to end this war is for Hamas to agree to the agreement that President Biden announced and that Israel has accepted,” Sullivan said.
“Innocent people were tragically killed in this operation,” Sullivan added. “I don’t know the exact number, but innocent people were killed. It’s heartbreaking. It’s a tragedy.”
But the national security adviser’s comments do not lessen Biden’s exposure to domestic politics over the war. The administration is caught between Republicans and the left, who have strong political incentives to undermine Biden and deepen ties with Netanyahu, his far-right ideological partner. The president’s difficult walk will be further tested if Netanyahu accepts a request to address Congress on July 24, a request signed by all four leaders of Congress but initiated by Republicans including House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Biden has been constantly heckled by pro-Palestinian protesters on the campaign trail since the war began, and large-scale demonstrations at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August could look bad and bolster Trump’s argument that law enforcement is needed to crack down on out-of-control cities.
Senator Tom Cotton signaled the Republican Party’s hardline stance on the conflict on Sunday, saying on Fox News that he met with Netanyahu to congratulate him on the raid. The Arkansas Republican also criticized “the progressive left in the United States, including the New York Times and the Washington Post,” for highlighting the large number of innocent civilians killed during the Israeli operation. While casting doubt on the casualty figures, Senator Cotton said on Fox News that “if we don’t want our citizens to be killed in a hostage rescue mission, we shouldn’t be taking hostages in the first place.”
The Gaza Ministry of Health said at least 274 people were killed and hundreds injured during an IDF operation to free four Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The IDF has disputed the figures, estimating the operation’s casualties to be “fewer than 100.” CNN cannot independently verify the Ministry of Health’s figures.
Gantz, a member of the war cabinet, said he was stepping down because Netanyahu had prioritized personal political considerations over a postwar strategy for Gaza and called for the prime minister to hold elections. “We will not allow our people to be torn apart,” Gantz said. Netanyahu had urged Gantz to stay on. But Gantz’s departure does not immediately jeopardize the ruling coalition, which still holds 64 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.
The hostage rescue mission and new turmoil in Israeli politics follows Biden’s latest attempt to end the war last month, when he unveiled a three-phase peace plan that began with an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of hostages and more humanitarian aid in the country. Biden’s call was backed by G7 leaders and some analysts saw it as an attempt to squeeze Netanyahu because the deal was originally brought about by Israel. Netanyahu responded by arguing that the war would not end until Hamas was defeated, which Hamas responded positively.
Given Netanyahu’s legendary staying power and the realities of the political timetable, Biden will likely be forced to negotiate with him for the remainder of the re-election campaign amid a standoff that could end both their political careers.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East peace negotiator for several US presidents, told CNN Newsroom on Sunday that the Israeli prime minister is trying to run out of political time in the US because the Knesset recesses on July 25 and doesn’t return until just before the US presidential election. “I think he’s trying to buy himself some time to make a decision about how he’s going to behave towards the next US president,” Miller said. “He can’t vote in the US election, but even if he could, I don’t think he’d vote for Joe Biden.”
Biden argues that Israel has weakened Hamas to such an extent that it is time to start thinking about the final stages of security in Gaza. Some U.S. experts believe that Hamas cannot be completely eradicated. But it seems unlikely that Hamas would accept a permanent peace deal that would mean losing power in Gaza. That’s one reason the situation is so out of hand.
“To defeat Hamas politically, we need to bring in other elements: Saudi Arabia, [United Arab Emirates]”Other Arab governments are open to doing that. We need the Palestinian Authority to play some role,” Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday.
“President Biden has made it clear that the United States will be a partner, but we need Israel to pivot to that position. But Israel doesn’t want that, so I think the war in Gaza is likely to continue for some time, albeit on a smaller scale,” Haass added. “We’re probably going to have a long, slow fight in Gaza.”
