The explosive growth of Hurricane Beryl into an unprecedented storm Literally hot water Experts noted that cold spells are currently occurring in the Atlantic and Caribbean Seas and that more such seasons are on the way.
Beryl broke multiple records even before it brought major hurricane-force winds close to land. Five hurricane experts told The Associated Press that the powerful storm was behaving like the monsters that form at the peak of hurricane season, due in large part to ocean temperatures that are at or above normal September temperatures for the region.
Beryl set a new record for the quickest Category 4 storm on record, with wind speeds reaching at least 130 mph (209 kph), the first Category 4 storm to do so in June. It was also the quickest storm to rapidly intensify from an unnamed low pressure system to a Category 4 storm in 48 hours, with wind speeds increasing to 63 mph (102 kph) in 24 hours.
It intensified late Monday. Category 5According to the National Hurricane Center, this was the fastest hurricane of that strength recorded in the Atlantic basin and the second Category 5 hurricane to reach that level in July after Hurricane Emily in 2005. Category 5 storms have sustained winds of more than 157 miles per hour (250 kph).
Kristen Corbosiello, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany, said Beryl is on an unusual southerly path for a major hurricane.
It is expected to make landfall on the island of Carriacou on Monday, with sustained sustained winds of 150 mph (240 kph), pounding islands in the southeastern Caribbean. Forecasters said late Monday that Beryl could remain near its current strength for another day before beginning to weaken significantly.
“Beryl is so unusual it’s unprecedented,” said Weather Underground co-founder Jeff Masters, a former government hurricane meteorologist who flew through the storm. “It’s so far beyond the scope of climatology that when you look at it, you say, ‘How could this happen in June?'”
Seas flood a road after Hurricane Beryl passes over the island of St. Lawrence, Barbados, on July 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Ricardo Mazarin)
Get used to it. Predicted months in advance This was supposed to be a terrible year, and now it is. Record Busy 1933 and Fatal 2005 – Year Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Dennis.
“What we’re expecting this year are these unusual storms, occurring at unusual times and in unusual places,” said Brian McNoldy, a tropical meteorologist at the University of Miami. “Not only are storms forming, intensifying, and becoming more intense, but we’re also seeing an increased probability of them intensifying rapidly. All of this is happening right now, and it won’t be the last time.”
“This could be a harbinger of more interesting things to come,” said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University. “Not that Beryl isn’t interesting in itself, but it poses a lot more of a potential threat, and it’s not just a one-off, it could possibly mean multiple storms like this in the future.”
The water temperature around Beryl is 84 degrees (29 C), 2 to 3.6 degrees (1 to 2 C) warmer than normal, “which is great for a hurricane,” Klotzbach said.
FILE – Residents cover the windows of their homes in preparation for the arrival of Hurricane Beryl, in Bridgetown, Barbados, June 30, 2024. (AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa, File)
Warm water acts as fuel for the thunderstorms and clouds that form hurricanes, and the warmer the water, or air, at the base of a storm, the more likely it is to rise higher into the atmosphere and ignite deeper thunderstorms, said University at Albany’s Corbosiello.
Masters said sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean were “above average September temperatures compared to the past 30 years”.
It’s not just hot water at the surface that’s a problem: Ocean heat content, a measure of the amount of deep-sea heat needed for a storm to keep gaining steam, is well above records for this time of year, reaching its September peak, McNoldy said.
“So if you get a lot of thermal energy, you can expect to see some fireworks,” Masters said.
This year there are large variations in water and upper air temperatures across the tropics.
The greater the difference, the more likely a storm will form and grow, said MIT hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel. “The Atlantic is the warmest I’ve seen compared to other tropical regions,” he said.
The waters of the Atlantic Ocean have been abnormally warm since March 2023. Record warmth since April 2023Klotzbach said high pressure, which normally produces cooling trade winds, collapsed then and hasn’t returned.
Corbosiello said scientists are Climate Change It’s unclear how it will affect hurricanes, but there is agreement that it will make hurricanes more likely to intensify quickly, like Beryl, and that it will increase the number of the most powerful storms like Beryl.
Emanuel said a slowdown in ocean currents in the Atlantic, likely caused by climate change, could also be contributing to warming ocean temperatures.
a The onset of La NiñaOne factor may be the La Niña weather phenomenon, which causes a slight cooling of the Pacific Ocean and changes weather around the world. Experts say La Niña tends to weaken the high-altitude crosswinds that weaken hurricanes.
La Niña typically means more hurricanes in the Atlantic and fewer in the Pacific, and Klotzbach said the eastern Pacific had no storms at all in May and June, which has only happened twice before.
Globally, this year may be a year with fewer tropical cyclones than normal, except in the Atlantic.
On Sunday night, Beryl experienced an eyewall swap that typically weakens a storm as it forms a new center, but now the storm is regaining strength, Corbosiello said.
“This is the worst case scenario for us,” she said. “We’ve seen early, very severe storms starting to form, and unfortunately, it appears to be unfolding as expected.”
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Seth Borenstein has covered hurricanes for nearly 35 years and is the author of Follow
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