“There should be no breaks for district work time unless all 12 budget bills have passed the House,” he wrote in a to-do list and all-caps instructions sent to all House Republicans on Oct. 23.
Well, that didn’t work.
Speaker Johnson accepted reality before lunch on Thursday, sending lawmakers home a week earlier than originally planned and replacing what is traditionally known as the “August recess” with a six-and-a-half-week legislative hiatus.
Republicans passed five of the 12 bills to fund the federal government, far ahead of last year’s completely dysfunctional timeline, when only one bill had passed at this point, but House Republicans failed to pass two others and have deemed the rest too politically difficult to even tackle at this point.
The bill that did pass contained so many conservative policy provisions and spending cuts to key programs that it died in the Senate, where the traditional bipartisan process is predictable. All House Republicans have to show for their government funding efforts is increased political exposure for dozens of incumbents, potentially putting the GOP majority at further risk.
While most Americans have their eyes on the Hollywood-style presidential campaign that has captured the nation’s attention, House Republicans have been struggling in the shadows for the past three months in their traditionally chaotic fashion.
That might have been a good enough strategy a few weeks ago, when President Biden was struggling. But Biden’s decision to step down has ignited liberal activists who are backing Vice President Harris, and as many as 10 of the most vulnerable House Republicans live in California or New York media markets. In those places, former President Donald Trump remains a political mainstay, and Harris might energize supporters who were put to sleep by President Biden. Perhaps it would set the stage for a net gain of at least four seats that would give Democrats a House majority next year.
It didn’t have to end up this way for House Republicans. In early spring, Johnson approved passage of a national security bill that included $60 billion in aid for Ukraine, shortly after the passage of two major packages that included all 12 spending bills at budget levels agreed to by Biden and Johnson’s predecessor, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), last year.
As a result, some of Trump’s most vocal supporters tried to oust Johnson in a manner similar to McCarthy’s, but Trump gave Johnson the support he needed to fend off that challenge (including a boost in Democratic votes). Johnson’s path to staying in power became clear: retain the majority and hope that Trump would win the election and support Johnson for another term.
Trump has never shown much interest in the details of government budgets beyond those related to border security, and some of the most conservative lawmakers have urged the speaker not to try to approve the 12 spending bills until after the election, hoping that a Republican sweep will lead to a very conservative budget.
But House Republican leaders are seeking a compromise by sticking to the strict outlines of the Biden-McCarthy agreement. They Side deals have boosted domestic funding by billions of dollars, but with very conservative policy riders. Breaking into funds legislation.
Democrats accused the speaker of once again caving in to the most conservative faction. “By engaging in a failed spending process, they knew these bills would never pass. They staged this farce to appease Republican extremists, and now they’re sending members home, even though Chairman Johnson promised not to recess in August unless all 12 bills were passed,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro (R-Conn.), the No. 2 Democrat on the Appropriations Committee.
Republicans have defended their dismal showing by accusing Democrats of only having a handful of votes on the bill, leaving them little room for error. “You know, we have some members of our senate who will vote against these bills, so they end up hitting a wall,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana), who ordered lawmakers sent back to the House early, told The Hill.
By pushing these Republican-only bills, Republican leaders have repeatedly forced their politically most vulnerable lawmakers to take votes in committee and on the House floor that may not be appealing to moderate voters.
House Republicans, driven by their conservative political demands, have secured funding for the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, Veterans Affairs, Social Security, and Medicare, and as a result have been forced to make deep cuts to some domestic programs in order to reduce overall spending to meet their political and policy objectives.
As a result, Democrats estimate that the Education Department budget bill would eliminate 72,000 teaching positions serving low-income students, the Environmental Protection Agency could face a 20 percent cut, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s budget would fall by more than $300 million below the president’s request.
While these domestic programs may not attract national attention, they are often popular in certain regions and can easily be turned into political weapons.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), a freshman congressman who narrowly beat Biden to Trump in his district four years ago, learned an early lesson last year when he voted in committee for a USDA funding bill that included a provision banning abortion-related pills from the mail, but Democrats turned it into a short video ad against Ciscomani.
Democrats took aim at the committee’s ranking member, Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), who is facing a tough re-election campaign in his suburban district, for voting to remove funding projects for the LGBTQ+ community from another bill.
The more establishment groups in the House Republican Conference often reluctantly defer to their leadership, even if it means backing bills pushed by far-right Republicans in safe, conservative districts.
Rep. Nick LaLota of New York, a Republican-leaning Long Island Democrat, told reporters after the final vote on Thursday that he would focus his campaign on bills passed last year that seek to address issues important to voters in his battleground state.
“I will focus my campaign on policy and making sure voters know where I stand on the issues that matter most: the border, the economy, public safety, pocketbooks and inflation,” said LaRota, who is facing off against well-funded opponent John Avlon, a former CNN news personality.
He said he was willing to defend cuts to some domestic programs as a down payment toward reducing the roughly $35 trillion national debt.
“There’s something that responsible people in Washington need to do. It shouldn’t be a partisan issue. Members of both parties should be able to participate in making reasonable, responsible spending cuts,” LaRota said.
Some moderate Republicans rebelled. Many lawmakers oppose the spending bill, including some hard-right conservatives who are accustomed to voting against nearly every funding plan, so the spending process is likely to stall until the fall or even after the November election.
Johnson and other Republican leaders are fighting a final battle to appease hardline lawmakers. They continue to act as if their greatest fear is a right-wing coup like the one that befell McCarthy, when their most immediate concern should simply be protecting their majority.
Last year, about two dozen House Republicans turned against McCarthy, first forcing him into 15 elections before he could be elected speaker in early January 2023. In October, eight of them joined forces with Democrats to oust McCarthy from his position as speaker.
After three weeks of chaos over the speaker selection, perhaps the most striking aspect of Johnson’s resume is that nobody dislikes him – that he could win the speaker vote.
But in recent months, the mood has shifted away from the 20 or so most hardline conservatives and instead toward one that best serves Trump’s interests. It is clear that last year’s chaos should not be repeated anytime soon.
Trump proved that by helping thwart an attempt by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), considered one of Trump’s closest allies, to oust Johnson. And while no Republican has paid a political price for supporting Ukraine in the primaries, Trump has remained silent during most of those races.
Trump’s relationship with Johnson was evident at the Republican Convention in Milwaukee, where Johnson frequently sat in the VIP front row. Alongside Trump and other prominent Republicans, some conservatives, including Greene, were somewhat relegated to the sidelines: She often sat a row or two behind Trump and was relegated to non-prime-time speaking roles; Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) never took the stage to speak.
If Trump wins and Republicans maintain control of the House, Johnson would likely find support to stay on as speaker, which would largely silence his critics.
If the Republicans lose their majority, Whether Trump wins or loses, it will be difficult for Johnson to remain the Republican leader.
And Democrats want to make Republicans pay for every vote they’ve cast over the past 18 months.
“I think what we should be taking against them is the fact that they’re incompetent,” said Rep. Jim McGovern of Massachusetts, the top Democrat on the Rules Committee. “I’ve served here a long time and I’ve never seen incompetence on this level.”
