The attempted assassination of Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday night is likely to have an impact on the race for the White House. While the motive for the attack is unclear, experts say it will certainly impact political debate, campaigning and voter behavior in the run-up to Election Day on November 8.
Republican National Convention in Milwaukee
As a first possibility, all eyes will be on the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Republicans will gather for the four-day event starting July 15 to begin the formal process of nominating Trump as their candidate.
The Trump campaign has said Trump still plans to attend the Republican National Convention. Nick Beauchamp, an associate professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Northeastern Global News that Republicans will “use the shootings to leverage Trump’s lead over the four-day convention and try to portray him as a sympathetic figure and a warrior against oppressive forces.”
After the attack, President Trump released a statement thanking the Secret Service and police, and also offered his condolences to the other victims.
“Images of Trump in the aftermath of the shooting will be iconic,” Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice University, told The Washington Post.
Sympathy for Trump?
Brinkley said the American spirit is one of fortitude and courage under pressure, and Trump raising his fist aloft will be a new symbol.
“Surviving an assassination attempt makes you a martyr because it attracts public sympathy,” he said.
A long way to go for Joe Biden?
Republican pollster Frank Luntz said the shooting guarantees that everyone who voted for Trump will actually vote, but that Biden cannot count on that certainty.
“The long and winding road for Joe Biden has just gotten even longer and winding. The shooting of Donald Trump will have profound consequences in ways the shooter never intended,” Luntz posted on X.
Trump’s shooting is said to upend a dominant narrative so far in the campaign, which has spoken of turmoil within the Democratic Party after President Joe Biden’s debate performance and growing calls for him to step aside and let a younger candidate take over.
The image of a bleeding Trump, fist raised in defiance as he was led off the stage, will be one that people will remember at polling stations as they think about the 2024 election.
It’s hard to imagine Biden or any of the Democratic candidates achieving their goals… pic.twitter.com/PayanEjafq
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) July 14, 2024
Shortly after the attack, Biden condemned the violence as “sick” and spoke to rival Democrats by phone. In a later television address, Biden again condemned the attack on Trump, repeating that “this kind of violence has no place in America.”
“Tonight, I want to tell you what we know: A former president was shot and an American citizen was murdered simply for exercising his freedom to support the candidate of his choice. America cannot and must not follow this path that we have taken throughout our history. Violence has never been the answer,” Biden said.
Steve Schmidt, a former Republican strategist and prominent Trump critic, said the political fallout from the shooting could be enormous and could work to the former president’s advantage in the election campaign.
“Historically, the most similar assassination target to Trump is George Wallace, but in terms of his reaction to being shot, the only president who could match Trump’s reaction was Teddy Roosevelt.” Schmidt X said in his post.
Historically, the assassination target most similar to Trump was George Wallace, but when it comes to reacting to being shot, the only president who could match Trump’s reaction was Teddy Roosevelt.
— Steve Schmidt (@SteveSchmidtSES) July 14, 2024
On October 14, 1912, there was an assassination attempt on former US President Theodore Roosevelt while he was campaigning for president in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Roosevelt ultimately lost the 1912 election, finishing second to Woodrow Wilson.
Not the first attack
Saturday night’s attack made Trump the 13th U.S. president or presidential candidate to face an assassination attempt and the eighth to survive.
“The Biden campaign’s central argument is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. This rhetoric directly led to the assassination attempt on President Trump,” Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, a possible vice presidential candidate for Trump, posted on X.
Biden’s campaign is now limited in how it can move forward, with the outbursts of political violence hampering his efforts to make his case, Bloomberg reported, and it also undermines a core premise of his presidency: that he will restore decency and normalcy to national politics.
Floating vote?
The shooting confirmed the concerns of voters in battleground states, as half of whom said they were worried about election violence in a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted in May, Bloomberg reported.
“In some ways, this is already playing into Trump’s existing image as a warrior fighting oppressive forces. It’s unlikely to resonate with them, especially after a few days,” Beauchamp said, as reported by Northeastern Global News.
