This year, elections will be held in countries home to nearly half the world’s population, from Taiwan’s general election in January to the US presidential election in November.
The vote comes amid growing economic and geopolitical conflict, including the war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East and rising trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China.
In some countries, political debate is becoming polarized and distorted by disinformation, raising concerns about the resilience of democracy itself, and many of this year’s elections will not be free and fair, or their results will be contested.
As we’re halfway through the biggest election year in history, here are some common themes emerging from Reuters coverage around the world.
Cost of living
From the price of onions in Indonesia to rising fuel costs across Europe, rising prices of food, energy and other basic goods are hitting living standards for families around the world. Current governments and leaders are paying the price.
Polls have found that concerns about the cost of living are a major factor in the decline in support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party in India, the defeat of major parties in June’s European Parliament elections and a major defeat for the ruling Conservative Party in the UK.
In Africa, dissatisfaction with living standards and unemployment contributed to the ANC’s loss of majority in South Africa’s elections, and worsening poverty is likely to be a determining factor in Ghana’s December election to decide who will succeed President Nana Akufo-Addo.
Pre-election polls in the United States showed that voters were similarly dissatisfied with President Joe Biden’s efforts to improve lives, with many Americans feeling that their standard of living is declining despite strong economic indicators. In one exceptional case, Mexico’s ruling MORENA party won the election after providing generous subsidies to low-income voters.
Economic policymakers say there are signs that inflation is returning to normal, but they warn it is not yet fully contained and many economies remain fragile.
“Several pressure points could throw the global economy off track,” Agustin Carstens, head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), a central banking group, warned in June.
Green Transition
With the cost of living a top priority for many voters, climate change measures were often left out of campaign rallies, even as global temperatures set new records and heat-related deaths rise.
Surveys have shown that Europeans still support ambitious measures to combat global warming, but the debate is centred on the perceived cost to life, with farm and other lobbies increasingly calling for a relaxation of net-zero policies.
In European elections, the environmentalist Green Party lost most of the seats it won five years ago. In Britain, ahead of the July 4 general election, Labour withdrew a £28 billion green investment pledge, saying the country didn’t have the money, while its rival Conservative Party branded itself “the driver’s friend” and attacked plans to cut traffic and emissions.
The biggest challenge to the green transition may come from the United States, where Donald Trump is campaigning on a platform of supporting the continued use of fossil fuels. It remains to be seen to what extent Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) green subsidies would be maintained if Trump wins.
Will it swing to the right (far right)?
The high cost of living crisis has boosted support for far-right movements in Western countries that combine anti-immigration and nationalist policies, often underfunded economic spending plans and a populist rhetoric that attacks global elites.
In March, Portugal’s Chega party quadrupled its number of seats in parliament, becoming the country’s third-largest party. Three months later, far-right and eurosceptic parties across Europe increased their representation in the European Parliament elections.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally failed to win the majority it coveted in Sunday’s general election but became the largest single party in a hanging parliament that threatens to plunge Europe’s second-largest economy into policy paralysis.
In Britain, the anti-immigration, nationalist Reform Party won more than four million votes, helping to collapse support for the ruling Conservative Party, even though it only won a handful of seats in the single-member constituency system.
Austria’s general election on September 29 will be closely watched, with opinion polls showing the far-right Freedom Party (FPO), which came in first in the European Parliament elections, leading its rivals.
In the United States, President Trump has made immigration one of the main issues in the domestic election, vowing to implement mass deportations, abolish birthright citizenship and expand travel bans from certain countries.
Mohit Kumar, chief economist at investment firm Jefferies, said immigration is garnering the most attention as an election issue in the very Western economies where ageing populations are creating labour shortages.
“Economically we need immigration, but the political dynamics are moving away from it,” he said.
Debt and Election Benefits
Amid widespread economic hardship, many politicians are proposing huge spending and tax cuts in a bid to gain power, but they risk adding to global debt already at record levels after developed economies implemented massive stimulus packages in the wake of the pandemic.
Ratings agency S&P Global warned that the United States, France and other G7 governments are unlikely to halt rising debt “at this stage in the election cycle.”
In its annual report in June, the BIS said an election year such as this one poses “particularly high” risks of fiscal expansion, which could complicate efforts to bring inflation down to target.
Budget watchdogs in Britain and France, both struggling to balance their budgets, said many of the spending pledges were unfunded or unrealistically expensive.
Trump has pledged to preserve the sweeping 2017 tax cuts he signed while in office, and his economic team is discussing a further set of tax cuts beyond those enacted during his first term.
Biden has proposed raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy, but has pledged not to raise taxes on families making less than $400,000 a year and has offered to help low- and middle-income Americans with child care costs. The U.S. federal debt is currently over $34 trillion.
Such debt levels are seen as making the global economy more vulnerable to financial shocks, and the International Monetary Fund has urged governments to reduce borrowing.
“Unfortunately, fiscal planning has been insufficient so far and could go further off track given that a record number of elections will be held this year,” Pierre-Olivier Grunschas, the bank’s chief economist, said in a recent blog.
Defense and Security
Amid rising geopolitical tensions, defence and security issues have been a major focus of many election campaigns so far this year, especially in countries close to conflict zones.
In February, Finland elected Alexander Stubb as president, pledging to bring the previously non-aligned country fully into NATO and allow the country to transport nuclear weapons. In Lithuania, the incumbent candidate won an election dominated by concerns about Russia and demands for increased defense spending.
Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections on January 13 centered on the debate over how best to deal with China, which considers Taiwan its territory. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party candidate won a third presidential term by vowing to protect Taiwan from threats while stressing the need for dialogue with China.
In the United States, anger among Democrats over Israel’s military action in Gaza and Biden’s continued support for Israel has emerged as a major weakness for Biden. Americans are divided along party lines on the conflict, with Republicans largely supporting Israel.
While Biden has voiced his unwavering support for NATO, Trump has said the U.S. would fundamentally rethink NATO’s purpose if he were to return to the White House. Trump has also baselessly claimed that if elected, he would end the Ukraine conflict before taking office. Biden has countered that Trump “has no idea what he’s talking about.”
Is democracy in danger?
Democracy watchdogs estimate that nearly three-quarters of the world’s population lives under authoritarian regimes. Monitors and human rights groups have raised concerns about the fairness of elections held this year in Bangladesh, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Cambodia, Iran and Russia. Elections in Algeria and Uzbekistan face similar doubts.
Modi’s election defeat has been hailed by some commentators as evidence of the strength of democracy. There was relief in Senegal’s peaceful handover of power in March after moves by the incumbent president to postpone the vote sparked protests.
But the biggest test of democracy this year may come in Washington.
Trump has refused to say whether he will accept the election results or rule out the possibility of violence surrounding the Nov. 5 election. He has already begun preparing to fight back against a possible defeat.
“We should be pretty worried,” Steven Levitsky, a Harvard political scientist and professor of government, said at a Brookings Institution think tank event in June.
“In a two-party system, democracy cannot survive unless one party is committed to playing by the rules of democracy.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
