Washington
CNN
—
No one knows what the process for selecting a new nominee would look like if Joe Biden were to step down, but many Democrats say it’s likely the process will be completed more quickly than in the past, with Vice President Kamala Harris being selected as the nominee.
Informal talks about how the top race to replace Biden might play out have been brewing behind the scenes for weeks, but so much uncertainty about the process and the potential for further confusion about what happens next have made even Democrats with serious reservations about Biden hesitant to voice their opposition to him as a presidential candidate.
“Damn, I’m addicted to coconut pills. I want this to stop,” one prominent Democratic activist said, referring to an online meme that went viral from an old video of the vice president recounting a story about his mother asking him, “Do you think you fell from a coconut tree?”
Not everyone has suddenly come together, but fatigue is setting in as a consensus.
Internal polling shows that Alice will at least boost the Democratic Party’s support and help lower-ranked races, and that argument is circulating. The argument that Alice will be the one to put together a campaign the fastest is looking less and less convincing. The fantasy that Alice will make a more aggressive and forceful case against Donald Trump is taking hold.
Many have been deliberately refraining from talking hypotheticals, as Biden aides have said he plans to return to the campaign trail as soon as next week after recovering from COVID-19, but if that were to suddenly change, two dozen Democratic politicians and activists told CNN they could not realistically envision any other outcome.
Some are pushing for a quicker, more private process in which delegates would approve the replacement as part of a virtual pre-convention nomination plan.
Some oppose the idea of a coronation, either because they prefer other methods or because they don’t like the coronation look. But there’s also the idea of a rushed series of lightning-fast primaries and town halls, but no one can agree that that would work, with just over 100 days until the election and even fewer days before Democrats are scheduled to gather in Chicago. Still, some Harris supporters, who doubt anyone would seriously challenge her, no matter how much she puffs her chest behind the scenes, support the idea.
Asked by CNN whether they would be prepared to announce that they want Harris as their nominee, several Democrats who have called for Biden to step down declined on Friday.
At the very least, officials and others close to the other most likely candidates acknowledge she is likely to be stymied by both party loyalty and her own future ambitions. After the past month of party infighting, pressure for unity will be mounting. And if she is seen to be weakened by the infighting and loses, those who support her would risk ruining their reputations with their base in the 2028 primary.
Some Democrats believe a resolution could be reached at the party’s convention in late August, despite the threat of an earlier vote deadline, but if it drags out that long, several Democrats predict there will be even more clamor for a solution.
That seems increasingly likely as Election Day approaches and after weeks of Democratic crisis, politicians and activists say they have been impressed with the vice president’s handling of the situation. They argue that the vice president has not been seen plotting even in private conversations, but has instead demonstrated his enthusiasm and loyalty to Biden at a series of campaign events, a momentum that will continue at a fundraiser he is headlining in Provincetown, Massachusetts on Saturday.
“I believe it has to be the vice president. She has campaigned vigorously in the name of the vice president and is the natural successor. In a scenario where the president doesn’t nominate someone, it would be important for us to immediately endorse her,” said one House Democrat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid being seen as undermining the president.
Biden’s hands matter.
It is almost inconceivable that Biden would step aside and not choose a successor as his running mate. To do so would be a bitter insult to her, just as he was deeply hurt when Barack Obama turned to Hillary Clinton ahead of the 2016 election, and, as he reiterated at a press conference last week, would be a disregard for his own judgment in choosing her as his running mate four years ago.
And that would mean forgoing a Black vice president among black voters and leaders who not only helped him win in 2020 but are some of his strongest supporters in this one, including Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, who has repeatedly said he prefers Harris over Biden.
That support will likely lead to more support, persuading delegates and voters alike — and making it even harder to challenge her despite her failed 2020 campaign and shaky start as vice president.
Eleni Kounalakis, lieutenant governor of California, a delegate to the Democratic National Convention and a member of the convention’s rules and regulations committee, and an old friend of Harris’, said that if the president leaves office, it’s important to remember that he won the Democratic primary while talking up the accomplishments of “Biden-Harris.”
“When people voted for him as their candidate, they were voting for this candidate. So I’m forced to conclude that the best way to validate primary voters’ votes is to support the vice president as their candidate,” she said. “There is so much respect for President Biden that I believe that if he were to ask delegates to support her, even if it meant getting caught up in a media vortex of public confusion, most delegates would respect his wishes, both as the person chosen in the primary and as president.”
That kind of thinking resonates with lower-ranking candidates too.
“I think the Democratic front-line people know better than anyone the power of stability. If there’s chaos, they’re the ones who suffer the consequences,” an aide to a Democrat in a front-line district told CNN. “The front-line people are like the stock market.”
Democratic politicians and national leaders worry that launching an open process at the party convention would create confusion, prolong internal party maneuvering and sharply damage support from the Congressional Black Caucus, a powerful force in rallying grassroots support and building enthusiasm for the November election.
Some Democrats seeking reelection in battleground states also see little benefit in a battle for a few weeks to test the party’s new face, assuming they would want to risk their political futures to take on Ms. Harris if she fails now.
“The infighting within our party is what’s plaguing us. There’s no way in the world we can get rid of Kamala,” one Democratic lawmaker told CNN on the condition of anonymity to discuss the difficult political moment the party faces.
It’s not that longtime haters of Ms. Harris have suddenly changed their minds, or suddenly forgotten about her past weaknesses and problems, but that’s part of the calculation Mr. Biden is making as he ponders what to do.
Texas Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who is seeking re-election in a tough race, told CNN he was surprised at how quickly the conversation had changed from just a few months ago when it was being said that Harris was a drag on the campaign and that Biden might consider replacing her.
“I don’t understand how anyone would have thought that she should be at the top of the list of candidates since then,” Gonzalez said. “I’m not against her, but facts are facts. Everything hasn’t changed, has it? How has it come to this since then? I mean, nowhere else in the world could this be but this town, right?”
Republican activists told CNN they are salivating over past attacks and video of Biden’s rambling responses, as well as repeated questions about what Biden knew and when about her health and the effects of aging. They plan to pressure Biden to resign, sow more chaos and remove her from the campaign trail.
It will also raise questions about not only her legitimacy, but whether she can be legally replaced on the ballot, whatever rushed process is chosen. There are real concerns that access to the ballot could be affected if Democrats put up an entirely new candidate emerging from a brokered convention, as House Speaker Mike Johnson said in an interview this week that “preliminary investigations are underway.”
And in 2020, when Biden added Harris to his list of running mates, some not only deliberately mispronounced her first name but also threatened to sue her about whether she was constitutionally eligible to serve as president, based on the false claim that neither of her parents were born in the United States.
They are not the only ones.
“If you think the transition is going to be easy, I’m here to tell you that the donor class, the elites, many of the people in this room who are pleading with you to not have Joe Biden be the nominee, they’re not even interested in the vice president being the nominee,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, said in an Instagram Live chat on Thursday night.
Meanwhile, some progressives privately say they trust Biden to be more in tune with their policies than Harris, which is one reason many continue to support him.
For others, the political conversation lags behind how it is reaching many outside Washington and those inside who are fixated on polling and donor data.
“In some ways, she’s auditioning for the presidency right now,” said Ashley Etienne, a former communications director and longtime congressional aide who remains in contact with many of the current senators. “She’s in a position to reassure people that she’s ready, while reinforcing confidence in Joe Biden. She needs to do that in a more thorough way, and the campaign needs to create opportunities for her to do that.”
For Maine Democrat Rep. Jared Golden, who has called on Biden to step aside and said he doesn’t think he could vote for the president, considering a move for Harris makes sense.
“I think a lot of Americans believe that if the Biden-Harris ticket wins, there’s a very good chance that Kamala will complete her second term,” Golden said. “So the question might be, why not just resolve that issue in this election?”
