What happens if Biden leaves office? With the 78-year-old Trump expected to surge back to the White House after the next election, all eyes will be on Vice President Kamala Harris, 59.
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While the outlook is still very bleak for Democrats, having Harris as president in the final stages of his current term would help change the narrative from Biden’s possible continuation to her becoming the first woman and second person of color to hold the world’s most prestigious office.
Trump’s approval rating has increased by three percentage points since the July 14 assassination attempt, to over 50%. Biden’s approval rating is at 47%, just behind Kamala Harris. Source: FiveThirtyEight
Polarized visions for America’s future, the so-called culture wars between progressives and conservatives, will still rage, but Democrats may have someone who can handle them better than Biden ever could.
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The 2022 midterm elections offer lessons for Democrats
Democrats have benefited greatly from the war of words in recent years: the results of the 2022 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections were the best for a Democratic presidential first term in the past 40 years.
In 2022, the economy was much worse, inflation was much higher, and Biden’s approval ratings were worse than they are now, with more governors elected to represent the party.So what went right for Democrats in 2022?
The debate sparked by the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn abortion rights in June 2022 could have a major impact on drawing progressive voters, especially young people who are more likely to be pro-abortion, to the polls.
Voters between the ages of 18 and 29 had the highest turnout in the two midterm elections, in 2018 and 2022, and exit polls at the time showed they contributed to overall results in favor of Democrats.
If Democrats want to keep the White House, a Harris presidency could achieve a similar result: the move would raise the stakes and elevate the choice from two old men to two visions for America’s future.
Where does Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party stand now?
67% of American voters are white. A Pew Research Center survey released in April 2024Typically, about half of them vote Republican.
Assuming this trend continues, roughly one-third of voters already support Donald Trump and the Republican Party, and Democrats need at least half of the remaining two-thirds to win the election.
African-Americans, Hispanics and Asians make up 28% of the electorate, but most of them do not vote, even though they are more likely to support Democrats than Republicans.
| Voters | I voted in all three elections: 2018, 2020 and 2022 |
| African American | 27% |
| Asian | twenty one% |
| Hispanic | 19% |
Source: Pew Research 2023
That’s a huge amount of votes that don’t benefit Democrats, and over the past decade Republicans have increased their share of the black, Asian and Hispanic vote.
For example, the number of Hispanic voters who vote or lean toward red (the Republican color) has increased from 5% in 2012 to 9% in 2023, while support for the blue party has remained largely unchanged over the same period.
The Democrats’ top priority now is consolidating as many votes as possible, something that might become possible if Biden leaves office.
Harris’ inauguration as US President will not only show that the party is ready to implement all its progressive platforms and change the tone of the campaign but will also ignite the pride of African-American voters and Indian immigrants in the US, solidifying the vote in the party’s favour.
Harris has battlefield experience, having been elected president in 2020. Unlike other potential successors, she has endured attacks and national scrutiny for at least four years while managing a politically sensitive policy portfolio under Biden.
Kamala Harris will likely have an easier time securing the funding Biden has secured as well as the support of the 4,000 delegates who supported Biden, at least until last week.
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