Hong Kong
CNN
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With the official announcement this week of the Republican presidential nominations by Donald Trump and J.D. Vance, governments around the world, including the world’s second-largest economy, are scrutinizing them for clues as to what a return to an “America First” foreign policy might look like.
When Vance, the Ohio congressman, accepted Trump’s nomination as his running mate at the Republican National Convention (RNC) on Wednesday, he made numerous references to China and what he sees as its negative impact on the U.S. economy as he outlined his life and thinking.
Vance, like his running mate, argued that decades of policies supported by President Joe Biden and the “unrealistic politicians” in Washington have left the United States “flooded with cheap Chinese goods, cheap foreign labor, and deadly Chinese-made fentanyl for decades to come.”
“We will build our factories again…Together, we will protect the wages of American workers and stop the Chinese Communist Party from building a middle class at the expense of the American people,” Vance said.
The remarks, one of the few direct references to foreign countries in the roughly 40-minute speech, came during a week in which Vance and Trump were signaling how the administration would shape U.S. policy and relations with China and America’s partners in Asia.
This is attracting attention in the region as a new administration emerges in the November elections, which could see a dramatic shift in U.S. relations with other countries.
The Chinese government has already roundly urged them to refrain from making such remarks, and when asked about recent comments by President Trump and Vice President Vance, a Foreign Ministry spokesman reiterated on both Tuesday and Wednesday that China “opposes making China an issue in the US elections.”
Vance has already upset European allies with his strong criticism of US support for Ukraine to defend itself against Russia, and, like Trump, he has repeatedly criticized NATO and its European allies for not spending enough on defense.
The view drew praise from Russia’s top diplomat on Wednesday.
“He (Vance) supports peace and stopping aid, and we can only welcome this, because in fact it is necessary to stop the flow of weapons into Ukraine and the war will end,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.
Vance’s skepticism about aiding Ukraine stems in part from what he believes are more immediate dangers to the United States being ignored.
In an interview with Fox News on Monday as the Republican National Convention got underway, Vance was quick to name China as “the greatest threat to our country.”
He said the war in Ukraine needed to be “ended quickly” so the United States could focus on “the real problem, which is China.”
The vice presidential candidate has also argued in recent months that U.S. supplies of air defense systems to Ukraine could undermine America’s ability to help defend Taiwan if China attacks it.
Vance does not have the longstanding history of being a China hawk like other vice presidential candidates reportedly considered by Trump, such as Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and vice presidents’ levels of engagement in foreign affairs vary.
But some observers see Trump’s choice of the 39-year-old senator as a sign of a tougher stance on China, one that Beijing is likely keeping a close eye on.
While professing his “respect” and “goodwill” for China’s authoritarian leader, Xi Jinping, former President Trump reshaped U.S. policy toward Beijing during his four years in office, launching technology and trade wars and positioning China as a rival that would thrive at the expense of the United States.
U.S. President Joe Biden has largely maintained and recently expanded tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on a wide range of Chinese products. Biden has made countering what Washington says are security threats from China a central pillar of his foreign policy, even as he seeks to stabilize communications with Beijing.
Given all this, “the Chinese government is developing scenarios and contingency plans, perhaps wary of the possibility of another administration that is less willing to cooperate and engage than the current democratic administration,” said Brian Wong, a research fellow at the University of Hong Kong’s Centre for Contemporary China and the World Studies.
Qilai Shen/Bloomberg/Getty Images
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a welcoming ceremony outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in 2017.
Another issue being closely watched by Beijing is how the candidates will frame their stance on Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that the Chinese Communist Party claims as its own even though it has never ruled it.
In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek this week, Trump said “Taiwan should pay for its own defense,” according to a transcript of the interview released by the publication on Tuesday.
The former president also said, “Taiwan is 9,500 miles away. It’s 68 miles away from China,” suggesting it would be difficult for the United States to defend Taiwan because of the distance.
The United States maintains informal ties with Taiwan that provide it with defensive means. Taipei has been buying weapons from Washington for decades and only received its first arms shipment from the U.S. last year.
While there may be a wide gap between campaign rhetoric and policies once the administration takes office, Trump’s comments stand in stark contrast to those of Biden, who has been a strong advocate of supporting Taiwan and maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait.
It is also attracting attention from Beijing and Taipei.
China’s Foreign Ministry, which has long criticized U.S. arms transfers to Taiwan, said on Wednesday that “the Taiwan issue is purely China’s internal affair and will not tolerate outside interference.”
Also in Taipei, Premier Zhao Chung-chi said Taiwan was ready to take on more responsibility for its own defense and maintaining peace.
“We are ready to make further efforts in our shared responsibilities for the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region, for our own defense and to ensure our own security,” Zhao said.
But observers are skeptical that such a stance from Trump will translate to an administration that is likely to be dominated by more hawkish figures.
Yun Sang, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, said Trump “will not be in a position to fundamentally alter U.S. Taiwan policy or ignore Taiwan’s security.”
But Beijing may also see benefit in Trump making similarly skeptical statements about other governments in the region, such as Japan and South Korea.
Biden has strengthened ties with these U.S. allies due to security concerns about China, while Trump has taken a more transactional view of Washington’s historic defense alliances and, as president, has reportedly asked both countries to pay more for U.S. troops stationed on their territory.
Speaking generally about U.S. “allies” on Wednesday, Vance also echoed the warning: “No more free rides to countries that betray the generosity of American taxpayers.”
Trump has also warned that if re-elected, he would intensify economic tensions between Beijing and Washington, at one point threatening to impose tariffs of more than 60% on all Chinese imports into the United States, a level that economists say would effectively separate the world’s two largest economies.
In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump ruled out a 60% tariff but suggested he could raise the tariffs to around 50%, which he said would encourage American companies to make products in the U.S. instead of in China. “Economically, it would be phenomenal,” he said.
The comments come as trade tensions between the U.S. and China are escalating again and Beijing is seeking to challenge U.S. industrial policies on electric vehicles at the World Trade Organization, a move that follows President Biden’s decision in May to raise taxes on Chinese products, including electric vehicles and their batteries.
And Beijing, grappling with its own economic problems, may be bracing for further friction if Trump takes office.
“China is watching the election very closely,” Sun said in Washington. The substance of Biden’s China policy in terms of sanctions, tariffs and competition is not that different from Trump’s, Sun noted, adding that Biden is keen to strengthen alliances and coalitions to counter China.
“But Biden’s style of China policy is more predictable and stable. Neither is friendly to China, so Beijing at least likes Biden’s predictability and stability.”
