Revised forecasts show slower export growth, rising imports, and fiscal challenges
The International Monetary Fund has projected that Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product could reach Rs193,630 billion by 2030, while exports are expected to rise to $46 billion, significantly lower than the government’s target of $60 billion. For the next fiscal year, Pakistan’s total exports are estimated at $36.46 billion, with exports expected to reach $40 billion in 2028 and approximately $43 billion in 2029.
The IMF released these revised projections as part of changes to Pakistan’s key economic indicators framework. Sources indicate that, according to IMF estimates, Pakistan’s GDP size will increase by about Rs68,000 billion cumulatively from fiscal year 2026 to 2030. However, the GDP target of Rs129,517 billion set for the current fiscal year is unlikely to be met, with the GDP now expected to reach approximately Rs126,000 billion.
On tax revenue, the IMF noted that the Federal Board of Revenue is unlikely to achieve a tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% even by 2030. The ratio is projected at 11.2% in the next fiscal year and may decline to 11.1% between 2028 and 2030. The FBR is expected to collect Rs13,979 billion in taxes this fiscal year, increasing to around Rs21,500 billion by 2030, while non-tax revenue is projected at Rs3,681 billion this year and may reach Rs3,861 billion by 2030.
The IMF report also addresses the budget deficit, projecting a gradual decline from 5.1% of GDP in the current fiscal year to 3.1% by 2030. To cover the deficit, Pakistan will require approximately Rs28,000 billion in total financing between 2026 and 2030, with around Rs2,300 billion expected from external sources.
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Regarding public debt, the IMF warned that outstanding debt may increase to Rs117,441 billion by 2030, though the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to gradually decline from 72% this year to 60.7% by 2030. Interest payments are projected to rise, reaching Rs8,251 billion in the next fiscal year, Rs8,214 billion in 2028, Rs8,796 billion in 2029, and Rs9,380 billion by 2030.
The IMF also cautioned that although the government aims to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13%, current projections suggest this target is unlikely to be achieved by 2030.
In terms of trade, the IMF’s forecast contrasts with government claims, estimating a shortfall of $13.79 billion in exports. Pakistan’s exports are now expected to reach $46 billion by 2030, compared to the previously targeted $60 billion. Exports are projected at $36.46 billion next fiscal year, $40 billion in 2028, and $43 billion in 2029.
Imports are expected to rise significantly. The IMF projects $64 billion in imports this fiscal year, $66.86 billion in 2027, $72.90 billion in 2028, $77 billion in 2029, and $82.81 billion by 2030, representing an increase of $18.70 billion in total imports by 2030.
Sources noted that the federal government had initially set a target of achieving $60 billion in exports within three years, which was later extended to five years to meet the $60 billion goal.
