After the House of Representatives electionsUttar Pradesh is set to hold by-elections to 10 assembly seats across the state, nine of which fell vacant after sitting state legislators resigned to retain Lok Sabha constituencies they had won in the recent elections, while the remaining seat, Shishamau, fell vacant after SP MP Irfan Solanki from the state was disqualified.
The situation in these 10 seats appears to have changed significantly following the results of the Lok Sabha elections, as the ruling BJP-led NDA and the resurgent Opposition Indian Union led by the Samajwadi Party (SP) are strategizing and considering options to take on each other in the by-elections.
Of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the BJP won 33, while its allies the RLD and Apna Dal (Soneyal) won two and one respectively, while Akhilesh Yadav-led SP won 37 seats and its partner on the Indian side, the Indian National Congress Party, won six.
In the 2022 state assembly elections, of the 493 seats, the BJP won 255, the SP 111 and the Congress two.
With the number of seats narrowed down to 10 in the upcoming by-elections, the SP has won five seats, the BJP three and NDA allies NISHAD Party and RLD (SP’s partner in 2022) one seat each in the 2022 elections. While the BJP alliance is looking to contest from their respective seats in the by-elections, the recent election results also give the Congress hope that it can contest a few seats as part of an alliance with the SP. Below is the current status of the 10 seats.
Karhar
The Kalhar seat in Mainpuri district was won by Akhilesh Yadav in the 2022 elections, defeating BJP candidate SP Singh Baghel, who is currently running as the party’s nominee from the Agra Assembly constituency. Kalhar is an SP stronghold where the party has won seats since the early 1990s.
The SP is confident of retaining the seat and is likely to field a member of Akhilesh Yadav’s family in the by-election, sources said. The BJP, too, is gearing up to give a tough fight to the SP to make its presence felt in the region.
Milkypool
The Mirchipur Assembly seat in Ayodhya district fell vacant after Awadhesh Prasad, the SP legislator from the city who defeated BJP’s Baba Gorakhnath in 2022, was elected as the Member of Parliament from Faizabad (Ayodhya) in the Lok Sabha elections.
In a shock to the BJP, sitting Ayodhya MP Lal Singh suffered a thumping defeat from Awadhesh by 54,567 votes, after the party had hoped that the consecration of the Ram temple and push for infrastructure development around Ayodhya would help it retain the seat by a large margin.
The Mirchipur by-election is expected to be a prestige battle between the BJP and the SP, which is currently going all out to promote Awadhesh, who belongs to the Pasi (Dalit) community. While the SP is confident of retaining the Mirchipur seat, which is part of the Ayodhya Assembly constituency, the BJP has already embarked on plans to wrest the seat back to regain its dominance in this crucial region.
Kyle
The Kair Assembly seat in Aligarh district fell vacant after two-term BJP member and state revenue minister Anoop Pradhan Valmiki was elected from Hathras (Supreme Court-reserved) Lok Sabha constituency. Besides the BJP, the RLD and BSP have had a strong presence in the seat so far.
In Aligarh, sitting BJP MP Satish Kumar Gautam retained his seat but SP candidate Brijendra Singh had a tough fight. Interestingly, Gautam, a three-term MP, had been challenged by a BSP candidate in the same constituency in the last election but this time the SP candidate gave him a run for his money and won by a margin of 15,647 votes.
Meerapur
Meerapur assembly seat in Muzaffarnagar district falls under the Bijnor assembly constituency. In 2022, RLD’s Chandan Chauhan won the seat in a close contest against BJP’s Prashant Chaudhary when his party was in coalition with the SP. In the 2017 and 2012 assembly elections, candidates from the BJP and BSP respectively won the seat. In 2017, the SP came second in the seat and in 2012 it came fourth.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, RLD state legislator Chauhan won the Bijnor assembly seat, defeating SP’s Deepak Saini by about 37,000 votes. While the BJP has its eye on Meerapur, the SP is also eyeing the seat given its recent performance.
Kundalki
Kundalki is in Moradabad district and the incumbent SP MP from the district, Zia Ur Rehman, was elected from Sambhal Assembly constituency. Kundalki, along with Birali, another seat in Moradabad district, falls under Sambhal Assembly constituency.
Like Sambhal, Kundalki parliamentary constituency is also a Socialist Party stronghold. Following the death of former Socialist Party veteran and Sambhal MP Shafiqul Rehman Balk, the party fielded his son Ziaur Rehman from the constituency in the recent elections, defeating BJP candidate PL Saini. This new victory has boosted the morale of Socialist Party members in Kundalki constituency, which has a sizable ethnic minority population.
Ghaziabad Sadar
The Ghaziabad Sadar seat in Ghaziabad district fell vacant after incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MP Atul Garg was elected from the Ghaziabad Lok Sabha constituency on the party’s ticket. Atul won in 2022, defeating SP’s Vishal Varma, but the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BSP) were also strong contenders for the seat in the last elections.
Atul defeated Dolly Sharma of the Indian National Congress to win in the Ghaziabad Lok Sabha constituency, a BJP stronghold having previously been won by Rajnath Singh and VK Singh.
While the BJP is stepping up efforts to retain Ghaziabad Sadar, the Indian National Congress party is hoping to use its support base in the region to win the seat earmarked by the Socialist Party for its candidate.
Shaking
Praveen Patel, the incumbent BJP member of Phoolpur constituency in Prayagraj district, was elected on the party ticket from the Phoolpur assembly constituency. The SP is putting up a strong challenge to the BJP in these constituencies.
SP candidate Amarnath Maurya lost to Praveen by around 4,000 votes in the Lok Sabha elections. This has boosted the SP’s confidence in its aim of wresting the seat in the by-election. The BJP has also begun the process of identifying its “frontrunner” for the election, sources said.
Manjwa
The Manjwa seat in Mirzapur district fell vacant after Vinod Kumar Bhind, a sitting state assembly member from the Nishad Party, won on a BJP ticket in the Bhadohi Assembly constituency.
In 2017, the BJP wrested Manjwa from the BSP. The NISHAD Party is hoping to recapture the seat from its main partner, the BJP, but the SP, which also has a strong presence in the seat, is hoping to grow its strength in alliance with the Indian National Congress. In the Lok Sabha elections, the SP was able to garner support from a sizeable section of the most backward castes, such as the Bhinds, who are heavily represented in the seat.
Kateri
In the Kateri assembly constituency in Ambedkar Nagar district, incumbent SP MP Lalji Verma won from the Ambedkar Nagar assembly constituency defeating incumbent BSP MP Ritesh Pandey, who had switched to the BJP and contested the election on the party ticket.
The seat has been held by either the BSP or the SP since the 1990s. The BSP has a strong presence in the region, but following Ritesh’s departure, its candidate slipped to third place in the Lok Sabha elections. This has given the SP an advantage in the by-elections. The SP is hoping to again attract a sizeable number of SC votes, as it did in the Lok Sabha elections, with the support of the Congress.
Shishamau
The Shishamau constituency in Kanpur district fell vacant after the district’s Social Democratic Party member Irfan Solanki was disqualified after being sentenced to seven years in prison for arson.
The Kanpur Lok Sabha constituency was won by the Bharatiya Janata Party in a close contest against the Indian National Congress, giving the party hope of winning the Shishamau seat, which Solanki had previously held as a three-term MP but which the Indian National Congress had won twice before. Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party, which has a strong presence in the region, is also hoping to win the state assembly by-election from the seat.
