Donald J. Trump and Ron DeSantis have remade Florida into a hotbed of the Republican Party and transformed the state into a power base for their party.
But now, with recent polls showing a tight presidential race in Florida, some Democrats are beginning to see a glimmer of hope that they may be able to rejoin the fray in what was once the most competitive battleground state of all.
These public movements, plus the announcement that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is running in Florida this fall, have injected a new sense of unpredictability into the turbulent world of Florida politics. But some Democrats have fallen prey to a kind of political magic, seizing on the idea that any sign of improvement could shift the state back to the Democrats. The reality is much grimmer: Wresting Florida from Republican control in key races will be difficult.
Some Democrats see opportunity in state ballot measures that would establish abortion rights and legalize recreational marijuana, two issues that could boost liberal turnout in November. Others point to polls showing President Biden’s lead among a key demographic in the state, seniors, and that Republican Sen. Rick Scott faces an increasingly tough re-election fight.
“Florida is an incredibly tough state to win for Democrats,” said Dan Kanninen, the Biden campaign’s battleground states director. “We’re well aware of that, but there are some unique factors that make Florida that much more interesting this time around.”
What is politically interesting is far from politically competitive. Even if Mr. Kennedy were to run, Republicans and Democrats say his presence is unlikely to be decisive.
Trump won the state twice, nearly tripling his margin of victory to 3 percentage points in 2020. Two years later, Republicans swept the state in the midterm elections, with DeSantis winning by the largest margin of victory for a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida’s modern history.
Since then, signs of a Democratic resurgence have been limited to just a few bright spots for the party. Last year, a Democrat won an upset in the mayoral election of Florida’s largest city, Jacksonville. In January, Democrats used an abortion rights platform to take over a Republican-held state House seat near Orlando.
Democrats found further cause for optimism in recent polls. A Florida Atlantic University survey released last week showed Trump holding a 6-point lead among likely voters, down from a 9-point lead in April. A poll conducted this spring gave Trump a 15-point lead. The latest poll was based on a Democratic-leaning sample and many Florida political observers considered it unrealistic.
The same poll found Mr. Scott leading former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by just 2 points, a sharp shift from a 17-point lead in April. She is still unknown among many voters; Mr. Scott is much better known but has only won narrow election victories. But his personal wealth has helped him dominate the television airwaves, and his campaign has defied the notion of a competitive race.
State party leaders believe they can rally around opposition to some of DeSantis’ controversial policies, including a parental rights law that critics have nicknamed “Don’t Say Gay,” expanded gun rights and a public feud with Disney, the state’s largest private employer.
On Saturday, the state Democratic Party announced that for the first time in 30 years, candidates were running for every seat in the state Legislature, a move the party blames on a backlash against conservative “extremism.”
“This is a record-breaking achievement for the Florida Democratic Party and a stark contrast to the party we inherited after 2022, when Republicans declared this party ‘dead’ just a year ago,” party chair Nikki Fried said. “Now we have momentum.”
Many Democrats don’t deny that they face significant structural disadvantages — a declining state Democratic Party, a huge voter registration disadvantage, a continuing decline in funding from the national party — and some statewide Democratic strategists say the rumors are simply fake news.
“Both sides want you to think Florida is a swing state, but it’s not,” said Fernando R. Amandi, a Democratic pollster in Miami. “If Democrats win multiple statewide elections, I can confidently say Florida will become a swing state again.”
Trump’s campaign has deep ties to the Florida Republican Party and is led by Suzie Wiles, one of the state’s most successful political activists. Campaign officials say they aren’t worried that either voting measure will tilt the electorate against them. Brian Hughes, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign in Florida, predicted that Trump would attract a “significant number” of conservative voters in his election.
He said Trump had expanded his base of support since winning the state in 2020, the largest margin of victory of any presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004.
“We’re enjoying growth in demographics that are generally not traditionally thought of as Republican,” he said: “younger voters, black voters, Hispanic voters.”
The Biden campaign has expanded its efforts in Florida in recent weeks, opening three offices with plans to expand to 12 by the end of the summer. The president and vice president both visited the state and sharply criticized Trump over Florida’s six-week abortion ban.
The Biden campaign’s Florida efforts pale in comparison to the tens of millions of dollars it has spent in other battleground states. Biden and his Democratic allies have spent a combined $328,000 on television ads in Florida this year, a tiny amount for such a large state. That total is a fraction of the $33 million they spent in Arizona and the $47 million they spent in Michigan, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
Much of Biden’s hopes rest on two amendments, particularly the abortion referendum, with Florida’s ban being stricter than what polls show most voters, including Republicans, support.
Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, abortion rights advocates have won in all seven states where abortion is directly asked of voters, and in Michigan, the measure helped boost liberal turnout and gave Democratic candidates victories in the midterm elections.
Still, Michigan may not offer much of a precursor to Florida. Since 2012, Florida’s voter registration has changed dramatically, with Republicans going from a deficit of about 500,000 voters 12 years ago to now having a lead of about 1 million voters.
“The marijuana and abortion amendments and the headwinds for non-Republican candidates are simple math,” said Nick Iarossi, a longtime DeSantis ally and lobbyist. “When Democrats are facing a million more registered voters than Republicans, proportionally the math is stacked against them.”
Florida’s constitutional amendment requires a 60 percent vote, meaning both bills will need strong bipartisan support to pass. Organizers of the abortion reform group Yes on 4 Florida say they are focused on building a diverse coalition, not Democratic politics.
“We have to meet that 60 percent threshold, and to do that we need the support of people who will vote for all candidates in the November election,” said Natasha Sutherland, the campaign’s communications director.
Ballot questions on abortion approved in other states have been put before voters in off-year and midterm elections, but support for them exceeded 60 percent in only two states – liberal strongholds California and Vermont.
“Nobody’s saying abortion doesn’t motivate people to vote — you see that everywhere,” said Florida-based Republican pollster Ryan Tyson, “but we’re not seeing it bring back voters who haven’t already voted, like we do in a presidential election year.”
But Florida voters, while electing Republicans, have supported liberal-leaning ballot measures in the past. The Florida Republican Party opposes both amendments, and last month, Governor DeSantis formed a political campaign committee to defeat both bills.
Some Democrats, who say Florida has suddenly swung to Republican advantage, worry that party leaders’ failure to set realistic expectations could further dampen morale after a tough Election Day. The only question, Democrats say, is how much Trump and Scott can increase their margin of victory from the last election.
DeSantis seems to agree. “Florida is a Republican state,” he said last week while speaking about his new elections commission. “It used to be a swing state. It’s not anymore.”
