CNN
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Narendra Modi has done more to elevate India’s standing on the global stage than any other recent leader of the world’s most populous country.
The prime minister, who was elected to an unprecedented third term in power this week, has positioned India and its fast-growing economy as a key player on global challenges such as climate change and development, while also firmly establishing India as a key security partner for the United States and an aspiring leader in the global south.
Modi’s victory gives the 73-year-old and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) another five years to improve India’s international standing and address rivalries and border disputes with nuclear-armed neighbours China and Pakistan.
But the election results leave Modi in a fundamentally different position from the one he enjoyed during his first decade in power.
The superstar leader and his BJP fell far short of the majority they had expected and will have to rely on coalition partners to form a government.
This is widely seen as a shocking setback for the leader and his party, which have been criticised for stoking Islamophobia and religious violence in India, curbing civil liberties and failing to solve livelihood problems such as soaring youth unemployment.
TV Paul, author of “Unfinished Quest: India’s Journey to Great Power Status from Nehru to Modi”, said Modi would now “have to devote a lot of time to (domestic issues) in order to maintain a coalition government with different policies”.
“Given that foreign policy issues did not influence the (election) decision as much as people thought, this idea of India exerting influence may be much less likely in the near term.”
Pete Marovich/Reuters
PM Modi walks along the colonnade of the White House with US President Joe Biden during his state visit to the US last year.
One aspect of India’s international ambitions that is unlikely to change during Modi’s new term is India’s relationship with Washington, which has helped bolster his reputation as a strongman.
India has emerged as a key security partner for the United States and, along with Japan and Australia, is a pillar of America’s Quad security grouping and is expanding cooperation in high technology and defence in the face of shared concerns about an increasingly assertive and powerful China.
In his congratulations on Modi’s victory earlier this week, US President Joe Biden praised the US-India friendship, saying it “will only grow stronger as we forge a shared future full of limitless possibilities”.
Analysts say the relationship is likely to strengthen in the short term.
“The two countries share concerns about regional stability and are overseeing expanding defense cooperation,” said Farwa Ammar, director of the South Asia initiative at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York.
“We can expect India to become more proactive in aligning closely with U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific region and expanding technology cooperation.”
While India’s relations with Washington have improved in recent years, Modi has been adamant about India’s strategic self-reliance to promote a world order not dominated solely by the United States or the US-China rivalry, and this goal is not expected to change until the elections. For example, India has refused to abandon its close ties with Russia, despite pressure from the United States to cut ties with belligerent Russia.
But one question is how Modi’s third term will affect widespread concerns among U.S. policy circles about a well-documented rollback of civil liberties in India under his right-wing leadership, and accusations that the Bharatiya Janata Party is trying to alienate the country’s Muslim minority of more than 200 million people.
India also faces serious allegations of extraterritorial overreach, raising questions about the risks to the country’s growing confidence, assertiveness and commitment to international norms under the Modi administration.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in September that his country was investigating “credible allegations” of Indian involvement in the killing of a prominent Sikh leader and Canadian citizen. The Indian government has denied the allegations but has hit back hard, accusing Canada of harboring terrorists and failing to combat extremism.
Two months later, US prosecutors also alleged that Indian operatives were involved in foiling a murder-for-hire plot against American Sikh activists. The New Delhi government has denied any involvement in the plot and has set up a high-level committee to investigate the allegations.
Nasir Kachroo/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Indian soldiers guarded the de facto border between Pakistan and India in the state of Jammu and Kashmir earlier this year.
One of the factors to watch after Modi’s painful election victory will be whether the new government will toughen or soften its stance in influencing India’s relations with its South Asian neighbours, experts say.
They say Hindu nationalism over the past decade has not only stoked division and violence within India, but also threatens to intensify regional frictions, particularly with Pakistan, which is often the target of the BJP’s fiercest denunciations.
Now, Modi’s BJP will have to answer to the interests of its coalition allies and face tougher checks from a resurgent opposition that could weaken its Hindu nationalist agenda. And analysts stress it will take time to see how the BJP adjusts its policy goals and rhetoric based on this new political reality.
“In normal politics, we’re likely to see less polarisation on a range of issues,” said Sushant Singh, a lecturer at Yale University in the US. “But[the BJP]may actually choose a different path” and ramp up its rhetoric to cater to its nationalist base, he added. “We’ll have to wait and see what the political decisions are.”
The reaction could also be driven by the BJP’s relative weakness this term, observers said, pointing to rising tensions with Pakistan after Modi’s landslide victory in the 2019 general election.
India later claimed it had launched air strikes on alleged terrorist training camps across the de facto border with Pakistan after a car bomb attack killed an Indian paramilitary, but Islamabad disputed the incident.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is using the “othering of Pakistan’s image” to mobilize its core Hindu nationalist support base, said Fahad Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University in the US, referring to the ruling party’s ideology that India is inherently a Hindu country.
“So it is not difficult to imagine a scenario in which a beleaguered Modi government would exaggerate the perception of an external threat in order to rally its domestic supporters.”
Observers say a weakened Prime Minister Modi may be forced to respond decisively if he is perceived to pose a threat from China.
Despite facing criticism for his weak response to deadly clashes along the disputed Himalayan border in 2020, Modi appears reluctant to risk confrontation with a militarily superior neighbour.
Governments and policymakers around the world will be closely watching how these issues develop in the coming months.
Some observers said that while the election results may not have boosted Modi’s popularity, they were already benefiting India’s global influence.
“If he had won a (super) majority and pursued a Hindu agenda, it would probably have dealt a blow to India’s (international) policies,” said author Paul, who is also a professor at Canada’s McGill University.
Paul said democracy was “India’s greatest soft power tradition” and that the elections could improve India’s image among liberal countries if democracy was seen to be restored.
“India’s resurgence as a proper democracy is in many ways a good thing for the world order,” he added, but “it all depends on how Prime Minister Modi plays this game.”
