Like other leading nuclear powers, India has been modernising its conventional and nuclear forces. Recent reports from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Arms Control Today, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, International Institute for Strategic Studies and many other leading national and international think tanks reflect how and why India is growing and modernising its deterrent forces.
Scholarly assessments could be a) prestige, b) power projection, c) escalation dominance, and d) temptation for preemptive strikes for winning short and long battles.
It is imperative to note that India has been developing Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) systems, Multiple Independently-Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), the K-series ranging from 700km to expected 5000+km, Brahmos missile series from supersonic to hypersonic with increasing ranges from 500km to 1500km, S-400 sophisticated missile defense systems, and more importantly India’s Defence Research & Development Organization has ambitious plans for Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) ranging up to 15000km.
Technically, all these increasing ranges and lethality goes beyond China reaching up to the Central Asian region, Russia, Canada, the US and the Latin American countries.
That said, India is not only increasing the number of nuclear weapons, but also the delivery systems required for carrying these warheads to assigned targets. The more India increases its warheads, the more delivery systems it would require. One of the sophisticated delivery systems is India’s growing nuclear capable missile systems.
It counts from short ranges reaching up to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). For example, it is reported in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists on “India Nuclear Forces, 2024” that India’s new Agni types of missiles could even go beyond ranges of 10,000km. Some scholars even assess that such ranges could further increase up to 16,000km. One wonders if India’s growing missile capabilities with increasing ranges and sophistication could threaten regional and global security.
Aforementioned, India’s aspiration for power projection comes from its economic wherewithal and its increasing strategic partnership with the leading powers such as the US, Russia and Israel that in turn boosts up its force modernisation.
The recent Trump-Modi meeting indicates how the US President might influence the Indian leadership to buy American technology including the US offer for its F-35 aircrafts. Whether or not India gets the F-35, the deterrent force modernisation and power maximisation emanating out of such an imbalanced strategic partnership increases India’s security.
This happens without strategically comprehending how this could potentially decrease the security of Pakistan amidst the acute security dynamics between the two South Asian rivals. India and Pakistan have already fought a number of wars, faced a number of crises and confronted many border skirmishes. Unresolved longstanding issue of Kashmir has become a nuclear flashpoint.
The Balakot crisis on 26 February 2019 reflected India’s failed, but escalatory risk for imposing its dominance in the region. However, Pakistan responded with the Swift Retort on the following day. The risk of escalation from conventional to nuclear level continues to exist and the growing strategic imbalance between the two rivals further worsens such escalatory risk in South Asia.
The leading powers need to be cognisant of India’s growing missile capabilities that accelerates arms race, security dilemma and crisis instability. The increasing imbalances emanating out of the leading powers growing strategic ventures with India adds fuel to the fire.
Crisis management for the ultimate crisis resolution through the balancing act by major powers may help reduce the risk of escalation. Pakistan continues to retain strategic balance for ensuring its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Such strategic balance is India-specific for deterrence purposes while ensuring broader strategic stability in South Asia.
