Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died Sunday when a helicopter carrying him and a delegation of other Iranian officials crash-landed in the mountains of northern Iran, raising further questions about the future of the country and the region.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died Sunday when a helicopter carrying him and a delegation of other Iranian officials crash-landed in the mountains of northern Iran, raising further questions about the future of the country and the region.
Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic News Agency confirmed that Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other senior officials were also killed in the accident while the group was traveling in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province. Dense fog hampered search and rescue efforts for several hours until the crash site was located. The fog was so thick that Iran was forced to request European Union satellite assistance to locate the helicopter.
Raisi’s death ended a brief period of change in Iranian politics, during which the country took a hard-line turn that threatened to bring the Middle East to the brink of regional war. Raisi, who has been in power for nearly three years, has steered Iran’s domestic politics and social policy in a more conservative direction, making it the first country since his predecessor Hassan Rouhani, who defeated him in the 2017 presidential election. This pushed it further into the role of a clear adversary of the United States in the region. -Before stepping up proxy attacks, he first sought to ease tensions with Western countries over Iran’s nuclear program.
During the tenure of Raisi, an Islamic jurist known for his close ties to Ayatollah Khamenei and seen by many officials and experts as a possible successor to the aging supreme leader, Iran has accelerated its uranium enrichment. , delayed negotiations on a joint comprehensive plan of action. The United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018, three years before he took office.
Iran under Raisi also supported Russia in its war against Ukraine with large-scale exports of Shahid suicide drones and artillery. After Hamas’ cross-border attack on Israel in October 2023, attacks by regional proxy militias against the United States and Israel increased. Just one month before his death, he launched a massive drone and missile attack against Israel.
Experts say that no matter who succeeds Raisi, the strategy he pursued is entrenched in the upper echelons of Iran’s political and clerical leadership and is unlikely to change.
“With or without Raisi, the regime is very satisfied with the way it has conducted itself since October.” “The Middle East is shaking,” said a senior researcher specializing in Iran at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Benam Ben Taleblou said. “It could continue its kill-by-a-thousand strategy, firing directly at the United States and Israel through proxies, and even firing directly at them several times in the retaliation we saw in April, as if winning a round. As if.”
Under Iran’s constitution, First Vice President Mohammad Mokbel is expected to serve as a cabinet minister for the next 50 days until elections are held. Analysts say recent parliamentary elections had the lowest turnout on record. Furthermore, Khamenei and his allies expended great effort to ensure Raisi’s victory in the last presidential election in 2021. disqualify a potential rival.
Before becoming president, Raisi served as a member of Iran’s Prosecution Committee, which was responsible for executing an estimated 5,000 dissidents in 1988. He had been charged with crimes against humanity by the United Nations and sanctioned by the US Treasury Department. And that coercive approach continued until September 2022, when 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died while in the custody of Iran’s moral police on suspicion of not wearing her hijab properly in public. sparked protests.
The snap election and presidential election scheduled for next year could lead to upheaval at the top of Iran’s ruling class. Raisi’s death could throw the country’s political future into further turmoil, as the only possible successor to the 85-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei is Mojtaba Khamenei, the head of state’s son.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the largest force in Iran’s armed forces that controls key parts of the country’s economy, may also use the turmoil to strengthen its own hands.
“Once he’s gone, there’s no obvious successor,” said David de Roche, a professor at the Center for Strategic Studies in Near East Asia at the National Defense University and a former U.S. Army colonel. “What’s really interesting is to see if the Revolutionary Guards basically complete a slow-motion coup.”
State media called on Iranians to pray for Raisi as rescue workers searched for his crashed helicopter. Instead, following reports of the crash, some Iranians Appeared Fireworks were set off to celebrate the death of the hard-line leader.
“Today’s crash and possible death of President Raisi and his death” [foreign minister] “It will shake up Iranian politics,” said Afshon Ostwal, an associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and a longtime Iran expert. I have written said in a post to X before the president was confirmed dead. “Regardless of the cause, perceptions of foul play will pervade the administration. Ambitious elements could apply pressure for gains, forcing pushback from other parts of the administration. Seatbelts.” Tighten.
Although experts say it is unlikely that a pro-liberalist will appear in a snap election or Iran’s 2025 presidential election, Raisi’s death could reignite protests that have been going on behind the scenes. said that there are only a few.
“These movements are not over,” said FDD expert Ben Taburu. “They operate at the lower levels, on the periphery, usually strikes, trade unions, etc. It could lead to a national trigger, or it could be an empty burger. But Iran’s The story of protest is always a question of when and if.”
