While recent weeks have focused on the war in Gaza and northern Israel, Iran, located just a few thousand kilometers from Israel, has taken an important step that raises national security concerns for both the United States and Israel. . On April 22, President Ebrahim Raisi of the Islamic Republic of Iran landed in the Pakistani capital for a three-day visit that included multiple high-level meetings with Pakistani policymakers. . The two countries discussed economic, security and political cooperation and agreed to strengthen ties at the diplomatic and people-to-people level.
Notably, it was Iran’s first official visit to Pakistan since the two Islamic powers have exchanged threats and terrorist groups directed attacks on each other’s territory. Additionally, Raisi’s trip abroad was his first since Israel and Iran exchanged attacks in the first three weeks of April. The timing and profile of this visit provides important insight into the dynamic changes in the broader Middle East in recent months that are creating new challenges for Washington and Jerusalem.
At the strategic level, the visit is a strong statement by Iran and Pakistan against the US policy of deterrence. About a month ago, the United States threatened Pakistan, warning it not to begin the 1,800-kilometre journey. Iran-Pakistan pipeline project. U.S. State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller said, “We always advise everyone that doing business with Iran carries a risk of exposure to our sanctions, and we advise everyone to consider it very carefully.” I want to.”
The project, a 25-year deal signed between the neighbors in 2010 and canceled in 2014 due to potential sanctions, would ease the need for natural gas for Pakistan’s moribund economy and The aim was to support Iran’s economy, which is under sanctions. In contrast to Washington’s warnings, Islamabad has ratified a project with Iran to “increase bilateral trade to $10 billion over the next five years”, among other agreements. Pakistan’s defiance of U.S. pursuits marks another failure of U.S. deterrence since early April.
With the US previously predicting that Tehran would attack Israel, President Joe Biden issued a blunt message to Iran, repeating “stop it” during an April 13 press conference. However, Iran attacked Israel on the same day, killing hundreds of people. drones and ballistic missiles.
The fact that the US government was unable to prevent attacks on its allies and did not respond with a painful blow to Iran shows that US deterrence is not backed by action, but rather remains at the level of a threat. There is. Therefore, despite American intentions, Pakistan’s subsequent decision to engage Iran indicates that American deterrence and influence in the Middle East is on a slippery slope.
Iran’s foreign policy and regional capabilities
Moreover, the visit demonstrates Iran’s ability to control regional dynamics according to its will, eliminating America’s role as a regional power. As mentioned above, on January 16, Iran launched an astonishing missile attack against the Jaish al-Adl terrorist organization within Pakistani territory without Pakistan’s permission. The attack triggered a diplomatic and military escalation between Pakistan and Iran, which ended days later with Pakistan launching its own offensive against Iranian territory targeting Baloch terrorists.
The Iranian attack was carried out without any prior notice or hostile context with Pakistan, and its purpose was to demonstrate to Tehran’s adversaries that the Iranian regime will not hesitate to harm its enemies anytime and anywhere. It seems that However, after Raisi’s visit, all question marks regarding the Islamabad-Tehran conflict were removed and Iran demonstrated that it has the authority to decide whether to attack or engage a major power such as Pakistan.
At an institutional level, Pakistan appears to have given up faith in America’s ability to pull itself out of the quagmire. In recent years, Pakistan has faced its worst economic crisis since its founding in 1947, and political and security instability has continued since then. Relying on an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout to deal with its debts to China and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan had to take extraordinary action to pull itself out of its dire economic situation.
The new government in Islamabad, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (elected in March), has already made some unusual decisions, including seeking to resume trade with India, Pakistan’s historical rival. Furthermore, the decision to significantly advance economic relations with Iran is an understanding that Pakistan has more to gain from this move than it could potentially lose from US sanctions or further support at the international level. It shows.
Furthermore, the involvement of Pakistan and Iran will increase China’s influence in the Middle East and South Asia against the backdrop of the United States. Both parties are important members of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and cooperation between the two parties is beneficial to the interests of the Chinese government. As hinted in a joint statement during the visit, “As members of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), the two countries express their firm determination to strengthen cooperation in the areas of connectivity, infrastructure development and energy. Both countries also agreed to expand the mutually beneficial and lasting relationship between the sister ports of Gwadar and Chahabahar ports.
Last, but not least, Pakistan is a nuclear state, and more specifically, the only Islamic state with nuclear capabilities. Iran, on the other hand, has been working to develop this capability for decades, despite the reactions of the West and other countries. It would be foolish to think that Raisi’s visit addressed nuclear intentions, but in fact it should raise serious concerns about future cooperation in this area between Iran and Pakistan.
With regional and international dynamics changing dramatically, coupled with Pakistan’s economic crisis, it is difficult to predict what will happen next. Therefore, the US government should take seriously the possibility of Pakistani support for Iran’s nuclear program.
To deal with this current situation, Washington must first embrace a new equation in the Middle East and beyond. Its deterrence capabilities have been seriously damaged in recent years, particularly since its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Therefore, new strategies need to be adopted. It is essential to shift the focus from deterring Iran by threatening sanctions to deterrence through punishment.
In other words, rather than trying to deter a specific attack on American bases or allies by threatening Iran and its allies with an “axis of resistance,” the U.S. government is using strategic military strategy to ensure that the attack does not benefit it. Hard power, such as a strategy, should be used. For actors.
Additionally, the United States should strengthen its relationship with Pakistan to reduce China’s significant influence under Sharif and play a more central role in global security. After the Taliban occupied Afghanistan, Pakistan became a strategic hub in the global war on terror. A new wave of jihadist terrorism under the Taliban regime is causing terrorist attacks not only in Europe but also in South and Central Asia.
Meanwhile, the Taliban harbors al-Qaeda and the Tehreek Taliban (TTP), which carries out continuous attacks on Pakistan.
Meanwhile, the Taliban has been unable to counter the expanding global activities of Islamic State (ISIS-K) in Khorasan province. Therefore, a higher level of security cooperation between the United States and Pakistan could counter terrorist activities from neighboring Afghanistan. Moreover, a more dominant security engagement with Pakistan could balance China’s strategic influence in Pakistan and restore America’s position in South Asia to some extent.
In conclusion, Raisi’s visit to Pakistan marks a turning point for the US MENA strategy. Pakistan’s decision to strengthen ties following the recent escalation in Israel, Gaza, and Iran signals the decline of US influence in the region. Therefore, the United States should reconsider its deterrence strategy and build stronger cooperation with Pakistan.
And what about Israel? As America’s closest ally, Israel should closely monitor Iran’s foreign strategy and actively participate in American efforts to counter it. After all, in the international arena, you may end up paying the price, even if your allies suffer losses.
The author is a fellow in the TELEM PhD program at the Department of International Relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He specializes in security in the Afpak region.
