Is China planning to invade Taiwan? Experts give their opinions

Last month, a People’s Liberation Army military drill aimed at punishing Taiwan after President Lai Ching-te took office brought a fictitious Chinese invasion back into the spotlight.

Analysts say China is likely to keep up pressure on Beijing-skeptical regimes, but the growing risk of failure to destabilize the regime could deter President Xi Jinping from pulling the trigger.

“The separatists have recently made fanatical rhetoric which shows their betrayal of the Chinese people and their ancestors. They will be nailed to history’s pillar of shame,” Defense Minister Dong Jun said Sunday in an impassioned speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Asia’s largest defense summit.

The People’s Republic of China claims Taiwan as its own territory but has never governed it. President Xi has said unification is inevitable, even by force if necessary. U.S. officials believe Xi has directed the military to have an invasion capability by 2027, but that doesn’t necessarily mean this year, or any other year, was chosen to carry it out.

Newsweek The U.S. State Department and the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. were contacted outside of working hours. Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to a written request for comment.

The rising cost of Xi Jinping’s failure

“Whether China invades Taiwan depends on Xi Jinping’s will,” said Hung Tzu-chieh, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Studies (INDSR), a leading Taiwan think tank. NewsweekA key factor in his decision will be whether a difficult naval invasion will strengthen his grip on power, or whether it will fail and risk the collapse of his regime.

Xi’s trust in the People’s Liberation Army also plays a role, Hong said, noting that last year Xi fired several senior officials, including five members of the Rocket Force and then-Defense Minister Li Shangfu, over corruption allegations.

“Given the current situation, it remains difficult to judge whether and when China will invade Taiwan,” Hong said.

“However, strengthening Taiwan’s defense capabilities, including the willingness of other countries to strengthen military cooperation with Taiwan, will enhance Taiwan’s deterrent power.”

In a speech on Sunday, Defense Minister Tung accused foreign forces, whom he did not name, of undermining the option of peaceful unification.

Dong vowed that the People’s Liberation Army would “take resolute action to thwart Taiwan independence and ensure that such plots never succeed.” Any force that seeks to separate the two sides of the Strait will face “self-destruction,” Dong said.

The Chinese government considers those opposed to unification to be a minority in Taiwan, but recent opinion polls have shown that only around 10% of Taiwanese people support unification.

Beijing has insisted that the resumption of cross-strait dialogue requires Taiwanese authorities to recognize the so-called “1992 Consensus,” a prerequisite, and the Chinese Embassy in the United States reaffirmed this in a previous statement. Newsweek.

Coined a few years later, the term referred to a meeting where Chinese and Taiwanese officials agreed that there was “only one China,” leaving open the question of which side represented the real China. The government of the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name) fled to Taiwan in 1949 after its defeat in the Chinese Civil War.

“The War of Influence”

“Taiwan is luckier than Ukraine. An amphibious operation is very difficult and can be easily defeated,” said Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at the Indian Institute for Security Studies. Newsweek.

Su predicted that in the near future, Beijing’s cross-strait strategy will focus on a “war of influence.”

The combination of cognitive warfare, economic coercion and gray zone operations – paramilitary actions short of war – is aimed at “influencing the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese people and creating a collective Stockholm syndrome,” he said.

He added that democracies’ open support for Taiwan’s democracy would go a long way in countering Chinese influence operations in the island.

China says its 2005 anti-secession law gives it the power to wage war if Taiwan formally declares independence.

Taiwan’s presidents Lai Ching and Tsai Ing-wen have carefully avoided openly declaring independence and have portrayed Taiwan as an already independent country.

The United States is Taiwan’s main arms supplier but for decades it has maintained a cautious and vague policy on whether to use military force to defend Taiwan if attacked by China.