Experience wins in the postseason.
This is a metaphor sports fans have heard all their lives, and it makes sense. There are bound to be growing pains for a young team. Age over beauty in the playoffs. Experience wins.
However, trends from BetLabs data suggest that is not the case, at least for bettors.
Consider a team that made it through the last postseason, came back this year, but was forced to start the playoffs on the road as a lower seed.
Who are those teams? They’re often fallen giants, filled with older, more experienced stars who underperformed this year but managed to sneak into the playoffs. Oftentimes, we expect those teams to have a veteran push.
Think of this year’s Lakers and Suns, or last year’s Warriors.
While it may be tempting to bet on these veteran teams, history tells us we should do just the opposite, at least for the first two games of Opening Day.
The home team in games 1 and 2 of the first round, which will face opponents who advanced to last year’s postseason, had an astonishing record of 107 wins, 63 losses, and 3 draws against the spread (ATS) in the early games. It is contained.
This equates to a 61.8% hit rate in a significant number of games dating back to 2006.
If you blindly bet $100 on every home team in Games 1 and 2 of the opening round against regular playoff opponents, you would have increased your bet by $3,512 since 2006.
And this trend is growing stronger. Since 2016, the same Game 1 and Game 2 home team he is 53-21 ATS and his hitting percentage is 71.6%.
Of course, that trend was already evident this weekend. So how was it?
Now, five home teams – the Celtics, Knicks, Thunder, Nuggets and Timberwolves – will be playing opponents who played in last year’s postseason. Sure enough, those five teams were his 4-1 ATS.
The only mistake was Sunday’s finale by the Thunder. There was probably a technical element here, since the Pelicans were just a play-in team last season.
In fact, this trend became even stronger from Game 1 to Game 2, with the hit rate increasing from 58.9% to 65.1%.
This is bad news for the Heat, 76ers, Pelicans, Lakers, and Suns. It’s also a reminder that yesterday’s playoffs may be old news, and that teams that faltered early probably have a reason.
If you really want to get into the details, the home team is an impressive 28-7 ATS (80%) in Game 2 of the first round alone, playing a rematch in the playoffs since 2016. He has a track record of success, including a perfect 10-0 over the past two years.
According to history, the Celtics, Knicks, Thunder, Nuggets and Timberwolves will win at home in Game 2.
Throw away the old and bring in the new!
Betting tools used by professionals
Best bets and signals for all games
Predictions from proven professionals
Recommendations for profitable betting systems
What do you think of this article?
