A new Russian offensive has eroded miles of terrain near Ukraine’s main city, Kharkiv, but the surge in U.S. weapons and the ability of Russia’s ground and air forces to work together, U.S. officials and military analysts said. It is said that the possibility of breakthrough is low due to the lack of
As fighting rages along the 700-mile front, Ukrainians remain under threat from Russian drones, missiles and artillery fire.Ukrainian military backs billions of dollars worth of US weaponssBut Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, southeast of Kiev, could face further bombardment as Russian artillery fire approaches.
The view that Russia’s gains continue to increase incrementally in a grueling two-year war of attrition is based on interviews with U.S. and Ukrainian officials, intelligence assessments, and military experts.
“The Ukrainians are in no danger of losing, but right now they are not winning,” said Seth Jones, director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington. “There are no peace talks and the Ukrainian side has no interest in peace talks. Russia feels it is in the driver’s seat.”
The escalating fighting comes as Ukraine finds itself on the losing side, running low on ammunition and waiting for $60 billion in new U.S. military aid to take effect.
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Russia seeks buffer zone in Ukraine
Since last week, Russia has advanced about two to five miles through largely open terrain in northeastern Ukraine. U.S. officials say they have not yet reached Ukraine’s first line of defense. The concern, said the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, is that a Russian advance could put Kharkov within range of Russian artillery. In fact, U.S. officials believe Russia is seeking to establish a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine to prevent cross-border attacks targeting Russian cities near the border.
A breakthrough by Russian forces seems unlikely, but after months of constant fighting, few reinforcements and dwindling supplies, Ukraine’s morale and manpower are in question.IIt also contained ammunition, officials said. The official said Congress’ delays in delivering a $60 billion military aid package are weakening Ukraine’s defenses by depleting the air defenses needed to thwart Russian missile and glide bomb attacks. Ta.
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Ammunition is arriving on Ukraine’s front lines following a recently approved aid package, officials said. Ukraine is also moving to make more young people eligible for military service, which could provide relief, officials said.
Still, Mykola Bielieskov, a military researcher at Ukraine’s National Institute of Strategic Studies, said in a WhatsApp message that it was “very difficult to answer” the question of when new U.S. military aid to Ukraine would make a difference. .
In a separate blog post for the Atlantic Council think tank last week, Bieliskov wrote that while “the new Russian military presence in northern Ukraine marks a significant escalation of the war,” Russia’s “immediate military objectives appear to be fairly limited” as Russia concentrates up to 35,000 troops on its side of the border., This may change. But he told USA TODAY that suggestions that Russia is close to seizing Kharkov or on the brink of a military breakthrough are “overreach.”
Phillips P. O’Brien, professor of strategic security studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, agreed with this assessment. He said as of Thursday, the Ukrainian military had sent reinforcements to the area., Russian forces have halted their advance in northeastern Ukraine.
“Let’s first see if we can capture the small town of Bobchansk,” O’Brien said.
Synchronization of troops, tanks and fighter jets
Jones said Russia’s ability to penetrate Ukraine’s defenses is limited because it struggles to synchronize its troops and tanks with its fighter jets in the skies. Ukraine’s air defenses prevent the Russian air force from providing the necessary cover for ground forces’ major advances.
Neither Ukraine’s military nor its military intelligence services responded to requests for comment on whether Russia’s activities near Kharkiv signaled a major change in the trajectory of the war.
The Institute for War Studies, a Washington think tank, published a series of maps on Wednesday based on open source information, showing that Russian forces have occupied territory in at least four towns in northeastern Ukraine (Hryboke, Neskutine and Staritsa) in recent days. It showed that it was occupied. And Vovchansk.
In a comment attached to the map, the think tank said: “The tempo of Russian offensive operations continues to decline in northern Kharkiv Oblast, the area first occupied by Russian forces, but Ukrainian authorities now have weak defenses. We are confirming that.”
Opportunity wasted due to land mines
A Ukrainian soldier on a reconnaissance mission in the Kharkiv region said he expected Russian forces to launch a larger offensive in the region and neighboring Ukraine’s Sumy region in the coming days.
However, he did not believe that the city of Kharkov was in immediate danger of falling into Russian hands. He said some of the currently contested towns northeast of Kharkiv suffer from a lack of defense preparedness.
For example, he believed that Ukraine had wasted opportunities over the past few months to plant mines and other defensive weapons around towns near Bovchansk and Kharkov that could have slowed the enemy’s advance. . The soldier requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
The soldier also expressed dissatisfaction with U.S. military aid.
He has said this since the war began more than two years ago., The Americans had kept Ukraine alive and provided it with enough weapons to fight back against the Russians. − However, it was not enough to win the war. The soldier said he has seen no new evidence that the situation has changed, even with the last round of U.S. aid.
Russia’s small gains came at a heavy price.
According to estimates released by the British Defense Intelligence Agency on May 4, nearly 900 Russian soldiers are killed or injured in combat every day. British intelligence estimates that more than 465,000 Russian troops have been killed or injured since Russia launched its illegal invasion in February 2022.
Casualties are expected to rise over the summer as Russian forces intensify their offensive. Jones said the death toll and injuries could exceed 500,000 by summer.
Until now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been able to quell domestic resistance by sending in troops from Siberia and Central Asia, as well as prison inmates, Jones said. The sons of the Moscow and St. Petersburg elite have so far been saved.
