- author, Will Grant
- role, BBC Mexico correspondent
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Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada is one of the most notorious figures in the history of the drug war, a name synonymous with the fearsome power and corrosive influence of the world’s largest drug cartels.
He was the last of the original drug cartel leaders, having founded the Sinaloa Cartel along with Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman from the remnants of the Guadalajara Cartel after its collapse in 1989.
But unlike his notorious partner, who was jailed twice and then escaped, El Mayo has managed to elude capture for nearly 35 years… until now.
U.S. authorities arrested him in El Paso, Texas, on Thursday. He has already pleaded not guilty to multiple charges in federal court in Texas.
He was lured to the US as part of an elaborate sting operation orchestrated by the son of his former partner, El Chapo, who led one of El Chapo’s successors, Joaquín Guzmán López, to believe he was traveling to northern Mexico to scout possible locations for a secret airstrip, and was arrested along with Zambada.
“Are you afraid you’ll get caught?” Zambada was asked in 2010 by the late Mexican journalist Julio Xerrell García, who traveled deep into the mountains to conduct an unprecedented interview with the drug lord.
“The thought of being jailed makes me panic,” he replied. “I don’t know if I have the strength to kill myself. I would take my own life, believing I have the strength.”
But when the time came, he had neither the means nor the opportunity.
For someone who has behaved so cautiously for so many years, it is extraordinary that Zambada, 76, should have been deceived. Perhaps it would have taken something extraordinary for him to be detained.
“It’s not surprising that Zambada didn’t go willingly,” said former DEA agent Mike Vigil. “He was in his 70s, in poor health, and had already said prison was his biggest fear.”
The arrests, and a possible plea deal between El Chapo’s sons, known as Los Chapitos, and the U.S. government, raise the question of who will take control of the Sinaloa Cartel.
Following the capture and extradition of El Chapo Guzmán to the United States in 2016, a bloody conflict began, with rival factions battling for control of territory and battling rival drug cartels who sensed weakness.
Even more shocking and violent was the reaction of Sinaloa cartel soldiers to the arrest of its leader, Ovidio Guzmán López, in October 2019.
After his capture, hundreds of gunmen swarmed the city of Culiacán, firing at civilian, police and military targets with .50-caliber guns and rocket launchers. Authorities eventually handed Ovidio Guzmán over to their men, ending the fighting.
He was subsequently rearrested, extradited and is currently awaiting trial in a US prison.
Image source, U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration
Mike Vigil thinks a similar outburst of violence in what has become known as the Culicanazo may be avoided this time.
“The Sinaloa Cartel has a strong group of leaders who could potentially take power, including El Chapo’s brother,” he said.
In fact, Vigil argues that a “kingpin strategy” that focuses on taking down individual cartel leaders is rarely successful.
“Under the administration of (then-Mexican President Felipe) Calderon, there was a tendency for infighting within the drug cartels to lead to bloodshed.”
If that were to happen this time, “the only winner would be the rival Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG),” suggests former DEA agent Mike Vigil.
But moments of instability and potential power vacuums like this one are far too unexpected: Mexican authorities have already sent additional troops to Sinaloa in preparation for an escalation of violence.
Another obvious question about Zambada’s arrest is: “Why now?”
The operation had been planned for months, but some reports said it also had an opportunistic element to it. U.S. officials were skeptical when the various pieces behind the ploy seemed to come together, but ultimately decided they had nothing to lose by trying it.
But the larger reason behind the timing was revealed by the words of U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland in a video message confirming the arrests.
“Fentanyl is the most deadly threat our nation has ever faced,” he said, pledging that the U.S. Department of Justice “will not rest until all cartel leaders, members and associates who poison our communities are held accountable.”
Fentanyl overdoses are now the leading cause of death among Americans between the ages of 18 and 45. It’s an alarming statistic, and one that may have caught the Biden administration’s attention, especially in an election year.
Both Los Chapitos and El Mayo have made billions of dollars from fentanyl, which is easy to produce and transport without requiring the massive coca plantations in the Andes like cocaine.
Experts say it’s virtually impossible to completely stop fentanyl smuggling because it’s too profitable for drug cartels and too intertwined with Mexico’s modern drug war.
But U.S. law enforcement wants to hit the drug-producing cartels, weaken their influence and, where possible, dismantle their leadership.
The capture of El Mayo Zambada would always remain a vital part of that strategy, even though he was elderly, in poor health, and captured through treachery.
