- author, Hugo Bacega
- role, BBC Middle East Correspondent
- Reported by South Lebanon
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Near-daily cross-border attacks between Israel and Lebanon’s powerful Iran-backed militia and political movement, Hezbollah, have taken place since October, killing hundreds on both sides and displacing tens of thousands, raising concerns that the relatively contained violence could escalate into all-out conflict.
But amid the attacks and counterattacks, there were signs that the Syrian army was trying to avoid a major clash. Miscalculation is always a risk, and Saturday’s attack on the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights may have been just that.
Israel accused Hezbollah of carrying out the attack on a soccer field that killed at least 12 people, including a child, making it the deadliest attack in the current fighting, and vowed to respond.
“Israel will not tolerate this murderous attack,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement released by the prime minister’s office. “Hezbollah will pay a heavy price, the highest it has ever paid.”
Hezbollah has denied being behind the attack.
But before the scale of the attack became clear, the group said it had targeted the Hermon Brigade with an Iranian-made Falak missile, one of several it carried out that day. The base, on the slopes of Mount Hermon, is about three kilometers (two miles) from where the explosion occurred, raising the possibility that the missile missed its target.
Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said intelligence showed the attack was carried out by Lebanon’s Hezbollah and called the group’s denials a “lie.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also said there was “every indication” that the missiles were fired by Hezbollah and that the US supported “Israel’s right to protect its people from terrorist attack”.
In other words, Lebanon is waiting for a big Israeli response.
Image source, Getty Images
Hezbollah’s attacks were launched on October 8, a day after a deadly Hamas attack on Israel, which the group said was in support of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. So far, more than 450 people have been reported killed in Lebanon, including about 350 Hezbollah fighters and at least 100 civilians. In Israel, 23 civilians and at least 17 soldiers have been killed.
In Lebanon, most of the Israeli offensive has hit two areas where Hezbollah is active: the south, where villages have been destroyed and deserted, and the eastern Bekaa Valley. Targeting previously untouched areas, including parts of the capital, Beirut, could lead to dangerous and unpredictable fighting.
Hezbollah, considered a much more formidable foe than Hamas, has been preparing for a new major conflict with Israel since the last clash in 2006, which was devastating for both sides. Western estimates suggest that Hezbollah has around 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of overpowering Israel’s sophisticated air defense systems. Its arsenal also includes precision-guided missiles capable of striking deep into Israeli territory.
Israeli officials have repeatedly said attacks by the group are unacceptable and are under growing pressure to act to allow displaced people to return to their northern communities. Military officials have said the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), which is continuing a major operation against Hamas in Gaza, are ready to launch attacks against Hezbollah, though details of what they might do are unclear.
Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has repeatedly said the group does not want all-out war with Israel but is ready for it. Last month, he said Hezbollah had deployed only a fraction of its weapons and warned Israel that any war would be fought “without constraints or rules.” A major operation against Hezbollah could lead to the involvement of other Iranian-backed militias in the region, what Tehran calls the “Axis of Resistance.”
Any war would be devastating for both countries, but especially devastating for Lebanon, which has been in crisis for more than five years. The economy has collapsed, an estimated 80% of the population lives in poverty, and political conflict has prevented presidential elections for nearly two years. The government has limited (if any) influence over Hezbollah, which, like Hamas, is considered a terrorist organization by the UK, US and other countries.
But all-out war is not inevitable: diplomats are trying to avoid a major escalation of hostilities, with Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdalla Bou Habib telling the BBC that authorities “call on Hezbollah not to retaliate.”
Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Oren Marmorstein said the “only way” to prevent conflict was to implement UN Resolution 1701, which was passed to end the war in 2006 and includes a requirement for militant groups to withdraw from southern Lebanon between the Litani River and the Blue Line, the unofficial border with Israel, but was never fully implemented.
Marmorstein said this was the “last moment” to diplomatically prevent war.
