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Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrived in China for a four-day official visit aimed at resetting ties between the two countries following Beijing’s dramatic decision last year to withdraw Italy from its flagship Belt and Road Initiative.
The Italian prime minister is due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang in a bid to stabilize relations between the two countries after recent turmoil.
Meloni is keen to minimise the impact of Italy’s withdrawal from the BRI, a $1 trillion global infrastructure investment programme that Italy joined in 2019 over the displeasure of the United States and other Western allies.
Meloni himself had publicly criticised then-Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s decision to sign off on Xi’s flagship programme as a “mistake”, and his government had formally notified Beijing of its intention to withdraw from the project in December, just before Italy took over the G7 presidency.
Many Italian businesses remain concerned that Beijing will retaliate against the decision, but the Italian government has sought to minimise the damage with a carefully choreographed low-key retreat in which Meloni stressed his commitment to maintaining a “mutually beneficial” relationship.
“We need to maintain ties with China, given that the economic sustainability of Italian exports depends on the quality of our relationship with China,” said Giuliano Noci, a professor at the School of Management at the Politecnico di Milano.
“This visit is of great economic importance for Italy,” he added, “It is true that we have withdrawn from the Belt and Road Initiative, but we recognize China’s special position and aim to foster a strategic dialogue.”
Michele Geraci, a former Italian government official who advocated for Italy’s Belt and Road participation in 2019 and now frequently teaches in China, said Beijing would probably also want to move past its recent setbacks.
“China’s goal is to make it look like everything is fine,” he said. “They’re not really interested in highlighting Italy’s withdrawal from the Belt and Road initiative. They don’t like it, but they don’t want to make a fuss about it.”
Shortly before Meloni’s arrival, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece, the Global Times, blamed the United States for Italy’s withdrawal from the Belt and Road initiative and reported that economic and trade ties remained strong.
“Italy’s withdrawal from the BRI was not due to any reluctance to cooperate with China, nor due to Meloni’s own political beliefs, but rather due to the enormous pressure it faced from the United States and other major Western countries at the time,” the paper quoted the analyst as saying.
China has sought to lobby European governments to exploit differences between the United States and European countries on issues ranging from Ukraine to trade and export controls.
Cui Hongjian, an analyst at the China Institute of International Studies, said Beijing will probably also boost Italy’s support for European Union tariffs on Chinese-made electric cars.
But China’s top priority is to stabilize relations in the face of geopolitical uncertainties, including those caused by the U.S. presidential election, and China will tell Italy that “the relationship needs to be more resilient,” he said.
But Meloni himself has been wary of China, criticising its unfair trade practices and warning of potential risks to Europe’s over-reliance on Chinese companies in strategic supply chains.
As youth minister in the government of the late Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, she called on the Italian athletes to boycott the opening ceremony of the 2008 Beijing Olympics in protest against China’s human rights record, particularly in Tibet.
More recently, the Italian government has sought to strip China’s Sinochem, the largest shareholder in Italian tire maker Pirelli, citing national security concerns, and Italy supports the imposition of heavy EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
During Meloni’s visit, the two countries will be commemorating 700 years since the death of Italian explorer Marco Polo, as well as the 20th anniversary of the “comprehensive strategic partnership” signed by Berlusconi and bilateral trade worth 66.8 billion euros last year (though heavily in favor of Beijing).
But Mr Djerassi said the visit was unlikely to yield any major results. “She will get the usual red carpet welcome, but I strongly believe that the Chinese government does not favor her doing business with China,” he said.
“That’s like you’re my girlfriend and you want to break up with me but you still want to be friends,” he concluded. “So what do I say? You’re still beautiful, but you want to break up with me.”
