Coming on the heels of four consecutive terror attacks in June, seven security personnel have lost their lives in terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir in the last two days, with Pakistan allegedly behind the attacks. These tragic incidents are a reminder that we have suffered from Pakistan-sponsored terrorism for over four decades, and that despite numerous peace initiatives and a decade of our overt tough stance, our goal of ending terrorism is yet to be achieved.
of The attack was brutally broken Complacency on the part of our strategic community and in the minds of our public over Pakistan’s relative restraint against terrorist organisations in recent years. The intractable domestic challenges facing the Pakistani state and the shifting geopolitical dynamics, especially since 2021, have been seen as signs of the country’s imminent collapse. While sporadic Pakistan-backed terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir has never ceased, our sense of complacency has also been reinforced by the tendency of some to overestimate the impact that our hardline approach, including the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, would have in largely restraining, if not ending, the Pakistan problem.
But the facts are this: Pakistan is far from collapsing. No great power in a highly volatile space with nuclear weapons would want such an outcome. Secondly, there is no sign of the Pakistani establishment rejecting terrorism. They have merely adjusted and adapted their terrorist activities in response to Financial Action Task Force investigations and our security/punitive measures, especially by eliminating notorious faces of terrorist organisations. Thirdly, the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status has not put an end to the Pakistani dimension of our problems in the state. Pakistan’s questioning of Jammu and Kashmir’s annexation to India preceded the introduction of Article 370 of our constitution and continues even after its revocation. The terror attacks are an attempt to maintain relevance of the situation in Jammu and Kashmir and undermine its promises for the state assembly elections.
Certain factors on both sides make de-escalation extremely difficult. The slogan “terror and talks are incompatible” tapped into deep and justified anger among the Indian public over Pakistan’s actions in the run-up to the 2014 elections. However, the slogan was not consistently adopted as a policy. Sporadic overt and under-the-table bilateral contacts appear to have continued at least until early 2017. There were reports of quiet talks again towards the end of 2020 and a restoration of the LoC ceasefire in February 2021. It is unclear whether there have been further quiet contacts. In any case, such contacts are beneficial in dealing with a complex and emotional relationship. However, “terror and talks are incompatible” has become a buzzword in the public mind, narrowing the space for diplomacy with Pakistan.
Pakistan has a bigger problem. It is not only due to the establishment’s traditional hostility but also because the then Imran Khan government, seeking answers to India’s August 2019 actions, put Pakistan in a corner by suspending trade and asking India to retract its actions in bilateral negotiations. The sharp political polarization of recent years, with the imprisoned but popular Khan at odds with the military-led establishment, makes it extremely difficult to give in from this position without saving face. Thus, trade with India remains banned, despite pressure from large parts of the industry to resume it. PML(N) leader Nawaz Sharif sent a conciliatory message about Modi’s reelection. But he is not the man in charge and in any case, the army has the final say on the matter. There is little indication, at least publicly, of what Army Chief Asim Muneer thinks about the matter.
In this situation, we are totally dependent on the security machinery and diplomatic machinery which is basically focused on isolating Pakistan internationally (with limited success) and responding to anti-India rhetoric in the international forums in kind. The security-centric approach clearly has limitations in bringing about a lasting change in Pakistan’s attitude towards us, especially given the growing Sino-Pakistani military ties and the nuclear dimension. Hence, Pakistan is expected to continue in that posture for the foreseeable future. Terror attacks in J&K.
On assuming his second term as External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar listed a solution to Pakistan’s longstanding cross-border terrorism as one of the key priorities of the new government. We must wait to see what steps the government will take to put an end to this menace, in addition to those taken over the past decade. As Pakistani terrorism continues, the obvious answer is to further strengthen the counter-terrorism machinery, coupled with a punitive approach. But any punitive approach must be carefully calibrated so as not to lead to a cycle of retaliatory violence. Moreover, even as our security forces deal with the Pakistani threat with bravery, their efforts must be supplemented by diplomacy that continues to explore opportunities to reduce tensions between the two countries. After all, Pakistan is beset by multiple internal problems and an unstable western border, and calm on the eastern border is necessary.
The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.
© Indian Express Ltd.
First uploaded: October 7, 2024, 7:45 AM
