Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s prime minister and president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), speaks at an LDP election rally in Kawagoe, Saitama Prefecture, Japan, on Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026. Traders are bracing for increased volatility as the Feb. 8 lower house election approaches. Photographer: Soichiro Koriyama/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is poised to lead her ruling coalition to a landslide victory in this weekend’s snap election, a Nikkei poll has shown.
The poll, conducted from Tuesday to Thursday, showed that the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, were likely to secure more than 300 of the 465 seats in the Lower House.
The findings echo an earlier poll by the Japanese daily Asahi Shimbun, which also projected that the ruling bloc would gain more than 300 seats.
The Central Reform Alliance — an alliance of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito — is forecast to have its seat count roughly halved from the current 167 seats, according to the Nikkei poll.
Separate polling by Kyodo News suggests the LDP could secure a single-party majority of more than 233 seats on its own.
According to Nikkei, the LDP now has its sights on surpassing 261 seats, a threshold that would allow it to control all parliamentary committees and chair positions.
A two-thirds majority in the Lower House would also give the ruling party the power to override an Upper House veto when it comes to passing legislation.
The election follows political upheaval last year, when the LDP lost its majority in the Upper House, and a Lower House defeat in 2024, which prompted then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to resign in September.
The poll also comes as U.S. President Donald Trump publicly expressed support for the ruling coalition, announcing in a Truth Social post that he planned to meet Takaichi on March 19.
Trump added, “it is my Honor to give a Complete and Total Endorsement of her, and what her highly respected Coalition is representing. SHE WILL NOT LET THE PEOPLE OF JAPAN DOWN!”
Takaichi had staked her political future on this election, vowing to resign if the ruling coalition fails to secure a majority.
With her high personal approval ratings, the fiercely conservative prime minister is looking to convert that popularity into votes for the LDP and her coalition.
Kristi Govella, Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, previously told CNBC that a clear victory would reflect Takaichi’s personal popularity, instead of any improvements in economic conditions in Japan.
“Little else has changed since July when the LDP was drubbed at the polls,” Govella added.
