Joe Biden fights for his political future

Good morning and welcome to the US Election Countdown. It’s good to be back after a long weekend. Today, we’re going to talk about:

Joe Biden is desperately trying to save his campaign, and make no mistake, this is a crucial week for his political future.

The president yesterday launched a new offensive to attack his Democratic critics, vowed to stay in the race in 2024 and made a new call for party unity to keep his candidacy in the running. [free to read].

In a letter to Democratic lawmakers, Biden stressed that he will “fight this election to the end,” and said, “If our resolve weakens or our future agenda becomes unclear, [Donald] Trump is hurting us.”

There’s no getting around it. His influence in the Democratic leadership continues to decline, as his recent media appearances have not reassured anyone. The party is divided between those who have called for him to step down, those who have pledged to support him, and those who have said neither.

As the backlash began and lawmakers returned to Capitol Hill after a holiday weekend, one Democratic leader suggested Biden’s term in office may be drawing to a close.

Without data showing we could be successful in hemorrhaging the House and Senate, I think it would be very difficult to remove the president and his family from their current positions.

But I think we’re going to see it.

The president, meanwhile, is tired of his debate performance dominating the headlines, even as he has failed to quell the party and donor revolt that erupted in its aftermath.

“The question of how to proceed from now has been under discussion for well over a week now,” Biden wrote. “And it is time to end it.”

Biden has said he is “very frustrated” with party elites who want him out, and has even challenged them to field another candidate: “Run against me. Go ahead. Run for president. Challenge me at the convention,” he told MSNBC, a cable network watched by many Democrats.

But Trump’s every move will be subject to unprecedented scrutiny, especially at a NATO summit in Washington this week where he is due to hold an unscripted press conference.

Campaign Clips: Latest Election Headlines

• Can Democrats remain united if Biden is defeated? [Free to read]

• “I’m not going to talk about the debates anymore,” the president told donors. (Politico)

• But donors are still shifting money away from Biden. (Bloomberg)

• Biden’s reelection strategy was centered on persuading voters that Trump was unfit to be president, but that may no longer be the case. (NYT)

• President Trump proposed a platform for the Republican National Convention that would reduce language on abortion and same-sex marriage. (The Washington Post)

• How U.S. Senator J.D. Vance rose to the top of Trump’s vice presidential shortlist. (WSJ)

Behind the Scenes

The Trump family wants to expand its business in the Middle East, rekindling concerns about potential conflicts of interest if the family patriarch returns to the White House.

The Trump Organisation, founded by former President Donald Trump and run by his sons Donald Jr. and Eric Trump, has signed contracts with London Stock Exchange-listed Saudi Arabian real estate group Dar Global to build a luxury resort in Oman and a Trump Tower in Jeddah.

Eric Trump told Chloe Cornish of the Financial Times:

We will definitely be doing other projects in the region, as the area is experiencing explosive growth that doesn’t look like it’s going to stop anytime soon.

Trump already owns a golf course in upscale Dubai in partnership with local developer DAMAC.

In addition to those projects, the candidate’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, owns a hedge fund that has raised $2 billion from Riyadh, leading critics to say a re-elected Trump could be vulnerable to foreign influence.

Eric Trump also argued that his family business had not been harmed by civil and criminal lawsuits brought against him in the United States and that lenders Deutsche Bank and Axos had supported the company.

The younger Trump argued:

We are virtually debt-free; we’ve paid off $400 million worth of debt over the past few years and built a substantial cash war chest.

Data Points

Polls since the debate have shown Biden’s support plummeting, with his rivals now ahead of him in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the FiveThirtyEight average.

Trump’s lead in national polls also widened.

On June 27, when the debate took place, Trump’s approval rating was 41.1% and Biden’s was 40.9%. On July 6, Trump’s approval rating rose to 42.2%, while Biden’s rating had fallen to 39.6%.

The White House blamed Biden’s poor debate performance on a cold and fatigue caused by a grueling international travel schedule in the weeks leading up to the debate.

He has appeared stronger and more agile since then at campaign rallies in North Carolina and Wisconsin, where he was led by a teleprompter, and his supporters are hoping he will prove himself without it.

Trump campaign staff and surrogates will be licking their lips, waiting to pounce on any gaffe Biden makes this week that could be used in a viral video about his age.

perspective

• As President Trump campaigns on alarmism about immigration, Rana Forouhar reminds us that immigrants are important to our economy and have the power to ease labor shortages and even inflation.

• Biden biographer Evan Osnos wonders at what point political conviction turns into denial. (The New Yorker)

• Graham Wood argues that Biden could preserve his dignity by opening up the delegates and campaigning in an open convention. (The Atlantic)

• Sarah Churchwell writes that American voters’ lack of understanding of the country’s history contributes to the political turmoil we’re experiencing.

• Trump 2.0 is not without risks for the US economy, but Edward Yardeni argues that a positive outcome for markets is certainly possible again.

• Biden’s fiasco makes it clear that short-termism breeds bad politics, writes Jemima Kelly.