The Creighton University Mid-America Business Sentiment Index, a key economic gauge for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, has risen above the growth-neutral threshold of 50.0 for the third time in 2024.
The index of economic activity, which uses the same methodology as the National Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and is assessed on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.0 indicating growth neutral, rose to 51.3 in June from 48.2 in May, marking the third time in 2024 that the index has exceeded growth neutral.
“The overall index, like the U.S. index, has been fluctuating around neutral growth since December 2023. Additionally, supply managers remain pessimistic about the outlook for 2024, with about 48% expecting weak economic activity for the remainder of 2024,” said Dr. Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. McAllister Professor of Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.
About 6% of supply managers are reshoring all of their overseas purchases, while an additional 42% are bringing some of their purchases back to the U.S.
Supply managers remain pessimistic about the economic outlook, with about 48% expecting economic activity to be weak for the remainder of 2024.
Goss expects weaker economic growth and easing inflationary pressures in 2024 to lead to a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting.
