The recent uptick in hostilities in Jammu could be the early beginnings of a ‘Kargil II’ like conflict after Indian troops on Saturday thwarted a Border Guard Pakistan (BAT) attack in Kamakhali area of Jammu and Kashmir’s Kupwara district leaving one soldier dead and four others, including a captain, injured, senior intelligence sources said.
BAT typically consists of Pakistani military special forces personnel and terrorists.
One Pakistani intruder was also killed in the gunfight, while two more managed to return to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) amid heavy firefight that lasted for several hours.
Sources said the latest attack indicates that Pakistani special forces are supporting the operation and the non-state actors involved.
They drew parallels with the 1999 Kargil War, when Pakistani forces trained and deployed troops and terrorists to launch attacks to seize fortified positions overlooking National Highway 1A in the Drass and Batalik sectors of Kargil, Ladakh. India realized the attacks were well-coordinated military operations and defeated Pakistan in Operation Vijay, fought in the summer of 1999.
“Diversionary tactics”
The sources also said Kargil II could be pushed forward with an aim to divert international attention and divert attention from the Ukraine war.
According to the sources, the United States and Western countries may be stoking the conflict to divert attention from the war in Ukraine.
Also read: Recovery of rifle from slain terrorist in Jammu and Kashmir’s Kupwara could signal a new threat – here’s why
Two artificial crises are being created to force concessions to Russia: the Taliban-Iran conflict and Kargil II.
Sources said Western countries are resentful of India and are using Pakistan to weaken India-Russia ties.
US weapons missing from Afghanistan
A Pentagon report released in August 2022 said the United States left more than $7.1 billion worth of military equipment behind in Afghanistan when Afghanistan’s democratically elected government fell to the Taliban during the withdrawal of U.S. troops in August 2021.
Earlier this month, security force personnel recovered Steyr AUG rifles, used by armies around the world, from two of the terrorists, raising fears among officials that weapons from Afghanistan may have reached Jammu and Kashmir.
Related article: The growing threat of trained fighters and US military weapons: Experts’ predictions from years ago are becoming a reality in Jammu and Kashmir
Indian officials suspect that weapons left behind after US troops withdraw from Afghanistan in 2021 ended up in Kashmir and are now in the hands of terrorists targeting civilians and security personnel.
Hundreds of weapons left by the US in Kabul are missing, and the Haqqani group’s 600-page memo details the missing weapons, and he also told Taliban leader Haibatullah Akhundzada he needed money to buy them back.
Is there a shortage of US weapons in Kargil II?
With weapons readily available, Pakistan could easily start a second Kargil conflict, the source said.
If Indian authorities decide to trace the weapons after a conflict breaks out, they said, these weapons would end up being linked to the Taliban and not Pakistan.
Related article: ‘China is a thing of the past’: US seeks $100 million budget allocation to stop Pakistan’s over-dependence on Beijing
CNN News 18 Pakistan has received huge amounts of funding from China to “fight terrorism,” some of which has reportedly been diverted to the Kashmir conflict, and the United States recently approved a small budget to distance Pakistan from Chinese influence.
The sources said an operation like “Kargil II” would act as a diversion from the Ukraine war because Western countries “need a manageable crisis somewhere else in the world.”
