Le Pen’s rise shows the scale of polarization

“These are very tense times and it’s the first time that the far-right has won at the first turn,” he said. [the first round of the ballot]”So this is a huge thing,” added Amer, a therapist who said she would vote for the left-leaning New Popular Front.

“We are very concerned and we are trying to get everyone to vote, tell those who don’t to go and vote, and convince those who vote far-right that that’s not a good answer. [to France’s problems]”

France’s far-right party, RN, rejects the label “extremist” and says it defends French values, culture and people at a time when many are tired of the French political system led by President Emmanuel Macron since 2017.

But the RN’s opponents and critics warn that the elections, called by President Macron after his crushing defeat to the far-right in June’s European Parliament elections, put France on the brink of political disaster if an openly anti-immigrant, nationalist and eurosceptic party wins a majority. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said French voters now have a “moral obligation” to stop the party from making inroads.

For young left-wing voters like Hamel, the fact that the RN has surged in voter opinion polls and won the most votes in the first round of last weekend’s elections is a worrying development that threatens France’s social cohesion.

“I’m worried about the future of the country. I think it’s getting worse and worse,” said Amer, who chose to give only her first name because of the sensitive nature of the situation. “It’s going to become a kind of civil war situation. I hope it doesn’t get to that point, but I think people will not interact with each other anymore and will be afraid of each other. It’s very scary.”

The election has highlighted the country’s political polarisation, with opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s final vote suggesting the country is deeply divided.

The first round of the election saw the far-right RN win 33% of the vote, the left-leaning New Popular Front (NFP) 28% and Macron’s coalition of parties (Ensemble or Together) 20%.

Since the results of the first round, centre-right and left-wing parties have been doing everything in their power to thwart the RN’s advance in the second round, and to prevent it from winning a parliamentary majority at all costs. The centre-right and left-wing parties, who joined forces in the so-called “Republican Front”, have withdrawn their candidates in many constituencies where they would have been better placed to defeat the RN.

The far-right opponents hope that by giving voters fewer options and offering tougher choices, they will steer voters to vote for non-RN candidates. Whether that works remains to be seen, but analysts say French voters may not be happy with being told how or who to vote for.

Sunday night’s final result – from early elections that Macron did not need to call – will show how difficult it will be to find consensus in domestic politics and government going forward.

It is also unclear how the public will react to the results. Civil unrest is not uncommon in France, given the spread of the “yellow vest” anti-government protests in recent years and the street protests that have taken place since the first round of voting on June 30.

The French Interior Ministry appears to be preparing for further unrest after Sunday’s election, reportedly preparing to deploy around 30,000 police across France on Sunday night amid fears of violence after the polls close. Interior Minister Gerard Darmanin is reported to have said that 5,000 police will be deployed to Paris and the surrounding area “to prevent the far-right and far-left from taking advantage of the situation to cause unrest.”

French police have been accused of heavy-handedness towards protesters during past periods of unrest, firing water cannons and tear gas at “yellow vest” protesters in 2019.

“The French election is in chaos,” a member of the Gendarmerie, France’s military force responsible for law enforcement and maintaining security, told CNBC. “France has rarely seen such blatant divisions among its people.”

“People’s opinions are becoming more and more divided and this can be felt in everyday life,” the military police officer, who asked not to be named due to his official duties, told CNBC.

The officer, in his 40s, a father of three and a right-wing voter, said the polarization in French society was “very worrying but unfortunately normal in the ‘diversity’ of our society.”

“We are seeing more and more cases of people with different values ​​and education being forced to coexist, and this is clearly not working,” said the police officer, who works in Bordeaux in southwest France.

“I am worried about the future of our country because we are too tolerant of people who are not willing to integrate and contribute to society. This cannot continue for long.”

Police officers said they expected civil unrest after the vote regardless of which party received the most votes.

“There will be social unrest no matter who is elected. This is France and the people will speak their mind.”

Political experts agree that the current unrest in French politics and conflicts between major groups of voters are factors that could spark further social unrest.

“We have all the ingredients here to create an extremely polarized political climate, which of course is reflected throughout civil society,” Philippe Marière, professor of French and European politics at University College London, told CNBC.

“The fact that only 33-34 per cent of people are voting far-right means that the rest are wary of it or are completely opposed to it. So that will be reflected in politics – in institutional politics, in party politics, in Parliament and at all levels of society. We will have a very polarised society and young people, ethnic minorities, women and especially feminists will be very worried,” he said.

Marielle did not rule out the possibility of street violence if a far-right party were to come to power: “We’re not there yet, but if you have policies that are very unpopular, very hostile and very hostile towards certain groups, you will see protests on a scale that will cause mayhem in the streets,” she said.

Like other far-right parties in Europe, the Rally National is exploiting voter anxieties about crime, immigration, national identity and economic insecurity. RN’s 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella, has told voters he will “restore order,” curb immigration and tackle delinquency, but he and fellow leader Marine Le Pen have backtracked on some of their harderline promises and rhetoric, including reversing France’s decision to withdraw from NATO and softening the party’s traditional pro-Russia stance.

Bardella said he still supported sending weapons to Ukraine, but not sending ground troops, as Macron had suggested was a possibility.

It is unclear how many of the RNC’s policies would be implemented if it were to take power, and the Republican Front seems confident that its strategy of undermining the RNC’s share of the vote ahead of the second round is working.

A poll published by Ifop on July 3 suggested that when presented with a choice on Sunday’s ballot paper, voters are likely to lean towards centrist Macron supporters or left-wing candidates rather than the RN candidate. But when presented with a choice between far-left and far-right candidates, the situation is more nuanced, resulting in a split of the vote.

Analysts predict that while the RN is unlikely to win an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, it will still likely garner the most votes, creating a scenario of a hung parliament and headaches for Macron, as well as uncertainty for France’s political and economic outlook.

“The political landscape is in disarray and the traditional rules, at least, no longer work,” Ipsos analyst Matthieu Doire told CNBC on Thursday.

“We are far removed from tradition and political practice and it is very difficult for all stakeholders to adapt to this new situation.”