With the final results now in, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to win a third term with 293 seats in the 543-seat Lower House. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 240 seats, but fell short of the 272 required for a majority. This means the party will be scrambling to secure support from its two allies, Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar. Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) won a combined 28 seats in the Lower House in the results announced on June 4.
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These two leaders, who are currently in the NDA coalition, are therefore key to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term, because if they decide to leave the party as they have done in the past, it could tip the scales against the ruling NDA in the Lower House of Parliament, leaving it with 265 seats, seven short of the 272-seat majority needed for any party or coalition to govern in New Delhi.
For now, it looks like both Naidu and Kumar will be attending the NDA conference in New Delhi. It remains to be seen what the two leaders will ask for in return for their support. For obvious reasons, their importance in New Delhi is unlikely to be greater than it is now.
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With all the speculation circulating, let’s take a look at the possible scenarios the two leaders might pursue.
What if Naidu wants to remove Amit Shah from the Modi cabinet?
Clearly, Naidu will be at the helm in the next government. He will certainly want to take advantage. What if he wants to exclude Union Home Minister Amit Shah from the Modi 3.0 cabinet?
The June 4 election results are even more significant for Naidu. Not only did he win Andhra Pradesh by winning 16 of the 25 seats, he also won the Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections by winning 135 of the 175 seats in the state, where elections for the Lok Sabha and the state Assembly were held simultaneously.
Clearly, Naidu, who fought both elections as a partner of the NDA as the TDP, does not need the BJP’s support to form the government in Andhra Pradesh, and BJP spokesman Jairam Ramesh has already promised that a Congress-led government would give the party special status.
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Naidu was previously with the Indian National Congress. The former Andhra Pradesh chief minister rejoined the NDA ahead of the 2024 elections. He had quit the NDA in early 2018. The TDP suffered heavy defeats in both the 2019 Andhra Pradesh Lok Sabha and state assembly elections. Tuesday’s election results make him the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh for the fourth time and a key figure in Modi 3.0.
What if Nitish Kumar wants to become Deputy Chief Minister?
Nitish has been a central figure in Bihar politics since winning the state assembly elections in November 2005. Since then, Bihar has held three assembly elections (2010, 2015, 2020) and four Lok Sabha elections (2009, 2014, 2019, 2024). With the exception of the 2014 “Modi wave” election, Nitish has always been on the winning side in six of these elections.
he, “Parthu Ram” Nitish Kumar has been replaced as chief minister frequently, but that doesn’t mean he’s equipped to navigate the complex political landscape of Bihar. His latest change of chief ministerial role came in January, when he quit the Indian National Congress-Romanian Democratic Party (RJD) coalition to join the NDA while retaining his post as Bihar’s chief minister.
For the 73-year-old Nitish, this is a golden opportunity to achieve something that has seemed difficult until now. He might use his newfound influence, given the party’s 12 seats in the lower house of parliament, to ask for the unthinkable. What if he demanded a deputy prime ministerial post in the central government? Or, like Naidu, a specific cabinet post in New Delhi?
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Some reports have suggested that Nitish Kumar may seek an assurance from the BJP leadership to ensure smooth continuity of the Bihar government at least till 2025. Reports also suggest that he may want to become the CM face of the NDA in the Bihar elections in 2025. Given his past track record, no one can say for sure whether Nitish Kumar will remain with the NDA.
According to a report in the Indian Express, both the parties have decided to stake their claim for the post of Speaker of the Rajya Sabha. Speculations aside, one thing is certain: once sworn in, both leaders will force Modi 3.0 to rethink his policies and decisions in order to keep the NDA government afloat.
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