Currently, Congress is in power in only three states: Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal. The grand old party won the December 2022 Himachal Assembly elections, the May 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections and the December 2023 Telangana Assembly elections.
Now, as the Lok Sabha elections begin, how will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) perform in these Congress-ruled states? And what if the BJP wins in these three states? The answer may or may not lie in its performance in past elections.
It is a well-known fact that the results of assembly polls do not necessarily match the results of state assembly polls. Simply put, if a party wins in the parliamentary polls, it does not necessarily mean that the same party will also win in the parliamentary polls. There are many incidents that prove this. Let’s take a look at the states one by one.
karnataka
What do the polls show? The Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to win in Karnataka, which is currently ruled by the Congress, and 22 of the 28 states in Sabah, according to an India TV-CNX poll. India Today’s Mood of the Nation also gave a favorable result for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Karnataka. It has been revealed that the NDA (BJP + JDS) is likely to win his 24 seats and the Indian bloc is likely to win his 4 seats.
Past election trends: Karnataka assembly polls have shown a ‘revolving door’ pattern, meaning that the government (the party in power) changes every five years. However, Karnataka has consistently voted in favor of the BJP in assembly polls.
The last time the Congress won more seats in the Indian Parliament than the Bharatiya Janata Party was in 1999. In 1999, the Congress won as many as 18 seats in Karnataka, while the BJP won only eight. Since 1999, the Bharatiya Janata Party has won more parliamentary seats than the Congress, but state governments have oscillated between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress.
What happened in the last poll? In the 2013-2014 election cycle, The BJP won the 2014 Lok Sabha elections but lost the 2013 assembly elections.. In the 2013 assembly polls, out of a total of 224 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party won 40 seats, the Congress won 122 seats, and the JD(S) won 40 seats. Just one year later (2014), the BJP won 17 seats (majority), the Congress got 9 seats and the JD(S) got 2 seats.
In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly polls, the BJP won 104 seats, making it the single largest party. However, the party was unable to form a government, falling short of seven seats, the majority. A year later, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won the largest number of seats (25 out of 28). Congress, JD(S) and independent candidates won one seat each.
What happened next after the 2019 polls? The Congress government collapses. The Congress-JDS(S)-led government in Karnataka collapsed after Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy lost a vote of confidence in the Assembly. The BJP formed the government in the state.
It is believed that if the Congress loses to the Bharatiya Janata Party this year, the current Siddaramaiah-led government in the state may fall.
telangana
What do the polls show? The Mood of Nation poll suggested that Telangana is the state that stands to gain the most for the Congress. The Congress will win 10 seats, up from the three it won in 2019, while the Bharatiya Janata Party will lose one seat and settle for three seats in Telangana. Meanwhile, a poll by India TV-CNX shows that the BJP may win four seats in Telangana.
What happened in past elections? The state of Telangana was established in 2014. The Telangana region’s Rashtra Samithi (now Bharat Rashtra Samithi) had won the state’s first assembly polls in 2018 and its first assembly polls in 2019.
In the 2018 assembly elections, the then TRS won a maximum of 88 seats out of a total of 119 seats. The BJP won just one seat, while the Congress won 19, AIMIM seven and TDP two.
A year later, in the 2019 national elections, the TRS won the polls overwhelmingly, winning nine seats. The BJP won four seats, while the Congress and AIMIM won three and one seat respectively.
However, in the second assembly polls, Telangana won for the Congress. In the 2023 assembly polls, the Oko Party crossed the parliamentary majority threshold of 60 to form the state government. So, will this year’s Lok Sabha elections be consistent with last year’s assembly polls, as happened in the last election cycle? This will only be known on June 4 when the results are declared.
himachal pradesh
What do the polls show? Both the Mood of Nation poll and the India TV-CNX poll show that the Bharatiya Janata Party has won all four Lok Sabha seats in Himachal Pradesh, similar to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This suggests that there is a high possibility that Network18’s mega poll predicted that the BJP could win a whopping 67 per cent of the votes, while the Congress could end up with only 27 per cent.
What happened in past elections? The BJP has won all the four Sabah seats in Himachal since 2014. Below is a comparison between the Lok Sabha polls and the Assembly polls held in Himachal Pradesh two years ago.
| parliamentary vote | Lok Sabha | result |
| 2017 | BJP (44); Congress (21) | 2019 | BJP wins all 4 seats | The BJP won both. |
| 2012 | BJP (26); Congress (36) | 2014 | BJP wins all 4 seats | BJP wins in Parliament, Congress loses |
| 2007 | BJP (41); Congress (23) | 2009 | BJP (3); Congress (1) | The BJP won both. |
| 2003 | BJP (16); Congress (43) | 2004 | BJP (1); Congress (3) | The BJP lost both. |
The incident in Himachal Pradesh becomes even more interesting in view of the recent rebellion within the ruling Congress faction. Several Congress leaders are believed to have voted in favor of the BJP candidate in the 2024 Rajya Sabha elections, accusing rifts within the Congress state unit.
This makes it clear that even if one party wins in the parliamentary polls, it does not fully reflect the results of the subsequent Sabah elections. What happened in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections — Will the BJP’s vote share cross the 370 mark? Will Congress lose the states it currently governs? The speculation will end on June 4, when the results of this year’s Lok Sabha elections will be declared.
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