Many experts have long seen the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as a favorite in the polls, but the stakes are high for the ruling coalition in terms of how many wins it can pull off and whether it can capture new territory — and the stakes are even higher for the opposition parties with their domestic clout shrinking.
But exit polls are unanimous in predicting that the NDA is closer to achieving Modi’s ambitious target of 400 seats than the Indian Union, which has just 180 seats – a third of the total.
While election results have so far been reluctantly accepted by all political parties, this time the opposition parties, including the Election Commission (EC), are raising more serious questions about the voting process.
As the counting of votes drew near, campaign animosity between the two camps spilled over into post-poll exchanges of insults after exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the incumbent coalition, a prediction that was summarily dismissed by Indian National Congress leader Rahul Gandhi as a “Modi media poll”.
Leaders from the All India camp, who have been questioning the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), accused the prime minister of sending a signal to the bureaucracy through these “fictitious” exit polls and marched to the Election Commission demanding the election monitor to follow the counting guidelines.
In response, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) accused its rivals of trying to undermine the integrity of India’s electoral process and called on the Election Commission to prevent any attempts at “violence and mayhem” during the vote counting.
The outcome will reveal whether the Congress has the organizational and leadership skills to challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has been in decline across India since 2014. For two consecutive Lok Sabha elections, the Congress has failed to even qualify as the main opposition party and is virtually invisible in many states, especially in the Hindi-speaking heartland.
Party leaders, including president Mallikarjun Kharge and key campaigner Rahul Gandhi, claim that the alliance will win 295 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha, signalling the end of the Modi government.
Indian Union leaders believe that their coalition can shape the poll narrative around allegations of welfarism and a threat to the Constitution from an all-powerful saffron onslaught, and thus win popular support.
If the BJP retains power, Modi will equal the record of three consecutive election victories led by the country’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru.
An uncertain future hangs over the fate of the Left as well as a host of regional parties such as the Trinamool Congress (TMC), Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Janus Al Janata Dal Congress (YSR Congress), which are in power in the states of West Bengal, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh respectively.
Modi has made a concerted effort to further strengthen the BJP’s grip in the two eastern states, where the party surprised everyone by emerging as a strong second-tier player in 2019. Exit polls suggest the polls could see the BJP dethrone two regional parties from their top spot.
In Odisha, state assembly elections are being held in parallel with the national elections, with the BJP, which has been in power in the state since 2000 under the leadership of Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, and the BJD engaged in a fierce power struggle. Assembly elections were also held simultaneously in Andhra Pradesh, where the YSRCP is ruled.
Another issue attracting attention is whether the BJP can emerge as a strong force in Tamil Nadu and Left-ruled Kerala, where it currently holds no seats but is expected to win several this time.
The Left’s poor performance will further bleak its national prospects as it remains strong only in Kerala after being defeated in its former strongholds of Bengal and Tripura.
Ever confident of returning to power, PM Modi has already penned an article about his vision for the country, posted on X about people’s support for the NDA and rejection of the Opposition, and held meetings with senior government officials to discuss “the agenda for the new government” in its first 100 days in power.
The election results are also expected to provide a public verdict on the fate of regional strongmen like Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, whose parties have joined forces with the BJP and campaigned hard to garner public support for their factions.
The verdict will also be passed on a number of Union ministers, including Rajya Sabha members Piyush Goyal, Bhupunder Yadav, Sarbananda Sonowal and Dharmendra Pradhan, who were approached by the BJP to contest the elections, and former chief ministers Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Basavaraj Bommai and Trivendra Singh Rawat of the BJP, Digvijay Singh and Bhupesh Baghel of the Indian National Congress.
In addition to Modi, who is running for three consecutive terms from Varanasi, senior cabinet members such as Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh are also joining the election campaign, and the margin of victory between them will also be a focus of attention.
